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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 27 at Los Angeles Chargers 24. Final.
Chargers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 8
New England Patriots 27, Chargers 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 10:20, 3rd and 10, on Adrian Phillips — 31.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:20 · 3rd and 10
Adrian Phillips
Patriots
(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at LAC 26. 21-A.Phillips for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 50.5 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 10:20, Patriots +31.5% win probability on one snap.
31.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin JacksonChargersQ2 14:48(14:48) 22-J.Jackson left end to NE 11 for 75 yards (27-J.Jackson).
13.4pts
Adrian PhillipsPatriotsQ2 1:06(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 30-A.Ekeler INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 48. 21-A.Phillips to LAC 40 for 12 yards (63-C.Linsley).
11.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — +0.36 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 9 of 19 on third down, against Chargers at 4 of 12 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Patriots171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at LAC 26. 21-A.Phillips for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −31.5 for ChargersExpected points −7.02 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 139
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:20NE +31% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at LAC 26. 21-A.Phillips for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:48LAC +13% win prob(14:48) 22-J.Jackson left end to NE 11 for 75 yards (27-J.Jackson).
2nd · 1:06NE +11% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 30-A.Ekeler INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 48. 21-A.Phillips to LAC 40 for 12 yards (63-C.Linsley).
2nd · 8:39NE +9% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.
1st · 9:38LAC +8% win prob(9:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor to LAC 14 for 44 yards (33-D.James).
3rd · 7:29LAC +8% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to LAC 45 for 14 yards (32-A.Gilman) [93-J.Jones].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adrian Phillips's 26-yard touchdown with 10:20 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Patriots ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Patriots: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.03Chargers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.00Patriots: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.21Chargers: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Patriots: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.36Chargers: +0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 75 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Chargers’s 57 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Chargers 3.
NoteChargers outgained Patriots 370-355 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's pass rate over expected, −3.7 pts, is past their previous low of −0.0 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Chargers10.3%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -3.7 pts, 7.7 points below their season mean of 3.9 pts and 1.2 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass−34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at LAC 26. 21-A.Phillips for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:20 · Chargers · 3rd & 10 at LAC 22 · gained nothing · -7.02 EP · −34.4% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 94 yards from the LAC 6 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
723
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2589%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.1565%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.1540%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0428%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0225%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.9825%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Patriots0Chargers6
Patriots0Chargers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Patriots 5
Patriots6Chargers7
Patriots7Chargers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chargers 1
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 47
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt1 play
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Patriots7Chargers13
Patriots7Chargers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Patriots 5
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chargers 1
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Chargers 8
Patriots10Chargers14
Field goal9 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Chargers 6
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Chargers 40
Patriots13Chargers14
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chargers 30
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Chargers 28
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Patriots16Chargers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Chargers 30
Patriots16Chargers17
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Patriots 30
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Patriots22Chargers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 6 to the Chargers 22
Patriots24Chargers17
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 27
Patriots27Chargers17
Field goal6 plays
Drive ended3 plays, from the Chargers 38 to the Chargers 22
Patriots27Chargers23
Patriots27Chargers24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Patriots 24
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Chargers 7
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
