2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -3.5 upsetO 50.5 ✓DomeChargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 10:20, NE +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 10:20NE — LAC LAC ball · 3rd & 10LAC 60%

(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at LAC 26. 21-A.Phillips for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 10:20NE +31% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at LAC 26. 21-A.Phillips for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:48LAC +13% win prob(14:48) 22-J.Jackson left end to NE 11 for 75 yards (27-J.Jackson).
Q2 · 1:06NE +11% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 30-A.Ekeler INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 48. 21-A.Phillips to LAC 40 for 12 yards (63-C.Linsley).
Q2 · 8:39NE +9% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Chargers
Offensive plays	75	57
Total yards	355	370 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	52%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.36 (edge)
Third downs	9/19 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chargers outgained Patriots 370–355 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

18/35, 223 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-7.7 expected points added · -15.1% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

18/35, 217 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.1 expected points added · -11.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

23 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

11 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

6/11 for 77 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

6/10 for 60 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	10	75	4:06	Touchdown
2	NE	NE 25	12	70	4:28	Touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 17	8	23	3:43	Punt
4	NE	NE 29	6	11	2:52	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 14	6	86	2:16	Touchdown
6	NE	NE 25	10	64	3:59	Turnover on downs
7	LAC	LAC 2	4	6	1:45	Punt
8	NE	LAC 36	9	30	3:22	Turnover on downs
9	LAC	LAC 25	5	4	1:16	Punt
10	NE	NE 32	4	2	0:29	Punt
11	LAC	LAC 28	4	12	0:47	Interception
12	NE	LAC 40	5	10	0:47	Turnover on downs
13	LAC	LAC 25	2	0	0:10	End of half
14	NE	NE 22	11	58	4:29	Fumble
15	LAC	LAC 25	5	13	1:43	Punt
16	NE	NE 39	10	41	5:09	Turnover on downs
17	LAC	LAC 25	7	45	3:00	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 25	5	8	2:13	Punt
19	LAC	LAC 6	6	20	3:15	Defensive touchdown
20	LAC	LAC 23	5	14	0:56	Punt
21	NE	NE 34	14	59	6:56	Turnover on downs
22	LAC	LAC 28	12	72	1:39	Touchdown
23	NE	LAC 46	2	0	0:40	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	18/35	217	0	0	1	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	23	80	3.5	1	-3.9
Rhamondre Stevenson	8	26	3.3	0	0.2
Brandon Bolden	4	26	6.5	0	1.1
Mac Jones	4	10	2.5	0	3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Nelson Agholor	3	6	60	18%	3.0
Kendrick Bourne	4	7	38	21%	-1.8
Jakobi Meyers	4	9	36	26%	-2.2
Hunter Henry	1	3	33	9%	-0.4
N'Keal Harry	2	2	30	6%	2.4
Jonnu Smith	2	2	13	6%	0.1
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	2	5	6%	-0.6
Jakob Johnson	1	2	2	6%	-0.7
Damien Harris	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Dugger	4	2	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	2	0.0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Christian Barmore	0	4	0.5	0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	1	0.0	0	1
Joejuan Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	2	1	0.0	0	1
Devin McCourty	1	2	0.0	0	2
Adrian Phillips	1	2	0.0	2	2
Matt Judon	2	1	1.5	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	18/35	223	2	2	3	-7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Jackson	3	79	26.3	0	4.4
Austin Ekeler	11	64	5.8	1	3.1
Larry Rountree	4	11	2.8	0	-1.1
Justin Herbert	2	9	4.5	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	6	11	77	1	32%	2.2
Austin Ekeler	6	10	60	0	29%	-3.1
Jared Cook	2	5	25	0	15%	-6.2
Josh Palmer	1	1	24	1	3%	4.6
Mike Williams	2	5	19	0	15%	-1.7
Jalen Guyton	1	2	18	0	6%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Derwin James	7	6	0.0	0
Kyzir White	5	4	0.0	0
Nasir Adderley	5	2	0.0	1
Chris Harris	6	0	0.0	0
Christian Covington	2	3	0.0	0
Drue Tranquill	3	2	0.0	0
Linval Joseph	2	3	0.0	0
Jerry Tillery	3	1	1.0	0
Asante Samuel	3	0	0.0	0
Kyler Fackrell	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -3.5
Closing total: 50.5
NE moneyline: +163
LAC moneyline: -183

Chargers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 51 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: NE 7 days · LAC 14 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Brandon Staley