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2021 Week 8 · Mon, Nov 1, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
GiantsNew York17
BY 3final margin
ChiefsKansas City20
New York Giants 17 at Kansas City Chiefs 20. Final.
Chiefs -10.5 no coverU 53 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 8
Kansas City Chiefs 20, Giants 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 14:57, 3rd and 4, on Evan Engram — 16.0 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:57 · 3rd and 4
Evan Engram
Giants
(14:57) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 14:57, Giants +16.0% win probability on one snap.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Willie GayChiefsQ1 7:43(7:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 50-W.Gay at NYG 26. 50-W.Gay to NYG 13 for 13 yards (28-D.Booker).
11.2pts
Travis KelceChiefsQ4 4:22(4:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 38 for 14 yards (23-L.Ryan). PENALTY on NYG-48-T.Crowder, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at KC 38.
13.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chiefs at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 3 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.14 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Giants170 of 181 plays carry both curves
(14:57) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.0 for ChiefsExpected points −2.74 for ChiefsThe model had Giants 21 points higher than the market did.play 133
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:57KC +16% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:22KC +13% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 38 for 14 yards (23-L.Ryan). PENALTY on NYG-48-T.Crowder, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at KC 38.
1st · 7:43NYG +11% win prob(7:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 50-W.Gay at NYG 26. 50-W.Gay to NYG 13 for 13 yards (28-D.Booker).
4th · 9:39NYG +10% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at NYG 17 for -5 yards (99-L.Williams). FUMBLES (99-L.Williams) [95-Q.Roche], recovered by KC-65-T.Smith at NYG 18.
4th · 11:04KC +10% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to NYG 13 for 15 yards (23-L.Ryan).
1st · 8:27NYG +9% win prob(8:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-J.Gordon INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love at NYG -1. Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 34-yard field goal with 1:12 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:19Tyreek Hill·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–7
2nd14:19Kyle Rudolph·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+77–7
2nd2:48Graham Gano·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+310–14
4th14:57Evan Engram·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+717–14
4th8:56Harrison Butker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+317–17
4th1:12Harrison Butker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryChiefs
Giants3–5Chiefs
301Total yards369
5.5Yards per play4.9
40%Success rate49%
33%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays3
13First downs27
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Giants: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.01Chiefs: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Giants: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.02Chiefs: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Giants: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.09Chiefs: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 55 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 76 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 88.7% in week 7 against 62.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Chiefs13.2%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NYG's pass rate over expected, 7.1 pts against a season mean of -1.9 pts — and NYG swings 10.9 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
74Matt PeartT · Every snap100%60 snaps
69Billy PriceC · Every snap100%60 snaps
71Will HernandezG · Every snap100%60 snaps
76Nate SolderT · Every snap100%60 snaps
8Daniel JonesQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
67Matt SkuraC · Every snap100%60 snaps
28Devontae BookerRB · Full-time93%56 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time87%52 snaps
88Evan EngramTE · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
89Kadarius ToneyWR · Heavy rotation57%34 snaps
15Collin JohnsonWR · Rotational40%24 snaps
3Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational38%23 snaps
80Kyle RudolphTE · Rotational35%21 snaps
82Kaden SmithTE · Rotational30%18 snaps
12John RossWR · Rotational27%16 snaps
39Elijhaa PennyRB · Situational12%7 snaps
79Korey CunninghamT · Situational2%1 snap
13Dante PettisWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Danny SheltonNTLorenzo CarterOLBSaquon BarkleyRBNate EbnerSSJ.R. ReedSSKenny GolladayWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Ben BredesonGMike GlennonQB
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%81 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%81 snaps
67Lucas NiangT · Every snap100%81 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%81 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%81 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%81 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time91%74 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation77%62 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation64%52 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Heavy rotation53%43 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational49%40 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational41%33 snaps
19Josh GordonWR · Rotational40%32 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Rotational30%24 snaps
40Derrick GoreRB · Situational20%16 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Situational16%13 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Situational12%10 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational5%4 snaps
85Marcus KempWR · Situational2%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Austin BlytheCDeandre BakerCBKhalen SaundersDTAnthony HitchensILBPrince Tega WanoghoTMike RemmersT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 50-W.Gay at NYG 26. 50-W.Gay to NYG 13 for 13 yards (28-D.Booker).
Q1 7:43 · Giants · 2nd & 8 at NYG 22 · gained nothing · -4.78 EP · −14.4% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 86 yards from the NYG 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
668
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0470%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.2472%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.0847%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1164%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.1260%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.0 seconds
Intercepted15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Giants 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 22
Giants0Chiefs6
Giants0Chiefs7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 3
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Chiefs 6
2nd quarter53 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEleven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Giants6Chiefs7
Giants7Chiefs7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chiefs 1
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 27
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 17
Giants7Chiefs13
Giants7Chiefs14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Giants 3
Giants10Chiefs14
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Chiefs 5
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 42
The period ended10 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 45
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 34
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 39
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Giants 47
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Giants 28
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Chiefs 11
4th quarter50 plays
Giants16Chiefs14
Giants17Chiefs14
Touchdown3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Giants17Chiefs17
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Giants 12
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Giants 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Giants17Chiefs20
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Giants 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 28
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -10.5
Closing total
53
Giants moneyline
+425
Chiefs moneyline
-530
Chiefs closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 53; the game landed 37 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Giants 8 days · Chiefs 8 days
Coaches
Joe Judge vs Andy Reid
3rd · 3:36NYG +8% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to NYG 30 for 8 yards (23-L.Ryan). FUMBLES (23-L.Ryan), RECOVERED by NYG-24-J.Bradberry at NYG 30. 24-J.Bradberry ran ob at NYG 43 for 13 yards (67-L.Niang).
4th · 1:01NYG +8% win prob(1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 20 for -8 yards (95-C.Jones).
