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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 8
It turned at Q1 8:41, 4th and 6, on Austin Seibert — 7.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 44–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:41, Eagles +7.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:41 · 4th and 6
Austin Seibert
Eagles
(8:41) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
7.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Lions at 1 chunk play.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(8:41) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Boston Scott's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:14 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryLions
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 61 snaps at a 31% dropback rate against Lions’s 59 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Lions 1.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
DET's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
19 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
PHI's early-down pass rate, 27.5%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 5.9 points clear of the next team along.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 8.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.9 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-16.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −10.1 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 61 snaps
Lions-5.6 ptsright on their number · −0.0 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 92%
Tendencies room →Eagles27.5%leaned — ran early · −22.5 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 51 early downs
Lions71.8%leaned — passed early · +15.0 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Eagles0.0%leaned — took the kick · −36.9 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Lions80.0%inside their normal wobble · +21.9 vs their 58.1%, and they swing ±29.0 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 31%
Tendencies room →Eagles28.6%off script — got home · +16.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+2.16× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Lions0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
PHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
25/34, 222 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-11.5 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
9/14, 103 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
2.1 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
10/11 for 89 yds, 0 TD
34% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jermar Jefferson banked 5.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. HockensonTE · Alpha Receiver | 18.9 | +2.2 | 76% | 83% | 34% | 33% | 10/11, 89 yd |
| Boston ScottRB · Committee Back | 18.0 | +5.0 | 45% | 53% | 6% | 0% | 12 car, 60 yd, 2 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jordan HowardRB | 17.7 | +5.3 | 25% | 11% | 0% | — | 12 car, 57 yd, 2 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.2 | +0.8 | 68% | 74% | 44% | 34% | 6/7, 72 yd |
| Jermar JeffersonRB · Receiving Back | 12.9 | +5.6 | 18% | 17% | 13% | 1% | 2 car, 6 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 23 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 11.2 | −7.2 | 78% | — | 0% | — | 9/14, 103 yd · 7 car, 71 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 8.9 | −4.3 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 25/34, 222 yd |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 8.8 | +2.5 | 18% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 3 car, 18 yd · 3/3, 40 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.1 | −4.8 | 71% | 67% | 16% | 6% | 12 car, 27 yd · 5/5, 24 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | −0.2 | 73% | 76% | 16% | 19% | 3/5, 46 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.2 | 89% | 84% | 13% | 9% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −4.5 | 18% | 26% | 13% | 15% | 2 car, 21 yd · 1/2, 0 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Committee Back | 2.7 | −3.7 | 31% | 21% | 0% | — | 13 car, 27 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 2.5 | −3.1 | 68% | 63% | 19% | 46% | 1/3, 15 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.3 | 65% | 37% | 6% | 0% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| David BloughQB | 0.6 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gardner MinshewQB | 0.4 | −0.2 | 22% | — | 0% | — | 2/2, 11 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.7 | 26% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 79% | 83% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tom KennedyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 23% | 17% | 3% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Greg WardWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 49% | 32% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:41) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q1 8:41 · Lions · 4th & 6 at PHI 29 · gained nothing · -3.45 EP · −8.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 90 yards from the PHI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles6
Lions0Eagles7Lions0Eagles10Lions0Eagles16Lions0Eagles17Lions0Eagles23Lions0Eagles24Lions0Eagles30Lions0Eagles31Lions0Eagles37Lions0Eagles38Lions0Eagles41Lions0Eagles41Lions6Eagles44Lions6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 9/14 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 71 | 10.1 | 0 | +7.8 |
| Boston Scott | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 2 | +2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 44% | +2.0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Davion Taylor |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/34 | 222 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −11.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_08_PHI_DET
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -3 and covered, winning by 38.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 50 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| Jordan Howard | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 2 | +4.7 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | +2.0 |
| +1.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 19% | +1.2 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| Boston Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −1.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Avonte Maddox | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Bradley | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Genard Avery | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Tuipulotu | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 | −4.3 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 | +1.8 |
| David Blough | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 10 | 11 | 89 | 0 | 34% | +3.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 16% | −0.3 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 9% | +2.5 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 16% | −9.9 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +0.6 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.8 |
| Tom Kennedy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy Walker III | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Bryant | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Marlowe | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Harris | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Onwuzurike | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Oruwariye | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Brockers | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
