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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Eagles156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(8:41) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Swing −7.3 for LionsExpected points −3.45 for LionsThe model had Lions 14 points higher than the market did.play 17
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:41PHI +7% win prob(8:41) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
1st · 3:14DET +4% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:02DET +4% win prob(6:02) 18-J.Reagor left end pushed ob at DET 25 for 10 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).
1st · 13:06PHI +4% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 88-T.Hockenson (22-M.Epps).
1st · 10:08PHI +3% win prob(10:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at PHI 37 for -5 yards (94-J.Sweat).
1st · 7:22DET +3% win prob(7:22) 18-J.Reagor right end to DET 38 for 11 yards (31-D.Marlowe).
2nd · 11:39DET +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Boston Scott's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:14 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:14Boston Scott·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd12:55Jake Elliott·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+310–0
4th9:57Jake Elliott·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+341–0
4th7:20Jermar Jefferson·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+641–6
4th1:54Jake Elliott·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+344–6
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryLions
Eagles9–0Lions
351Total yards228
5.8Yards per play3.9
51%Success rate36%
50%Third-down rate36%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays1
25First downs15
0Sacks taken6
0Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Eagles: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.41Lions: −0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Eagles: +0.41 expected points added per play
−0.51Lions: −0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Eagles: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.16Lions: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 61 snaps at a 31% dropback rate against Lions’s 59 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Lions 1.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 5.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 23.1% in week 1.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 7.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 2.3% in week 7.
19 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's early-down pass rate, 27.5%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 5.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 53.7% in week 2.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.4 points.
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 8.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
off script — got home · +16.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+2.16× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Lions0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%65 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%65 snaps
67Nate HerbigG · Full-time92%60 snaps
16Quez WatkinsWR · Full-time89%58 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Heavy rotation68%44 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Heavy rotation68%44 snaps
89Jack StollTE · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
84Greg WardWR · Rotational49%32 snaps
35Boston ScottRB · Rotational45%29 snaps
81Richard RodgersTE · Rotational37%24 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Rotational31%20 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Rotational25%16 snaps
64Brett TothT · Situational22%14 snaps
77Andre DillardT · Situational22%14 snaps
10Gardner MinshewQB · Situational22%14 snaps
18Jalen ReagorWR · Situational18%12 snaps
63Jack DriscollT · Situational8%5 snaps
19J.J. Arcega-WhitesideWR · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mac McCainCBZech McPhearsonCBAnthony HarrisFSJack AndersonGIosua OpetaGEric WilsonOLBReid SinnettQB
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Austin Seibert−8% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:41) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q1 8:41 · Lions · 4th & 6 at PHI 29 · gained nothing · -3.45 EP · −8.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 90 yards from the PHI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
44%
Yards
578
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.4280%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2637%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.1512%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.3742%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.3933%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Eagles 43
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 4 to the Eagles 9
No good6 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Eagles 29
Eagles6Lions0
Eagles7Lions0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Lions 1
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Lions 47
2nd quarter47 plays
Eagles10Lions0
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 42 to the Lions 25
Punt12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 48
Eagles16Lions0
Eagles17Lions0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Lions 4
Turnover on downs19 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Eagles 22
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Eagles23Lions0
Eagles24Lions0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Lions 3
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Eagles 39
Eagles30Lions0
Eagles31Lions0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Lions 2
Eagles37Lions0
Touchdown2 plays
Eagles38Lions0
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 31
4th quarter41 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 31
Eagles41Lions0
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 8
Eagles41Lions6
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Eagles 8
Eagles44Lions6
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 23
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
