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Pittsburgh Steelers 15 at Cleveland Browns 10. Final.
Browns -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 8
Pittsburgh Steelers 15, Browns 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:14, 2nd and 8, on Jarvis Landry — 24.7 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:14 · 2nd and 8
Jarvis Landry
Steelers
(6:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry to PIT 21 for 11 yards (93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (93-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 20.
U 43 ✓
17.2 mph wind
Browns closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 15–10. Biggest swing: Q4 6:14, Steelers +24.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
24.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Pat FreiermuthSteelersQ4 11:08(11:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.9pts
Baker MayfieldSteelersQ4 1:58(1:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (39-M.Fitzpatrick) [97-C.Heyward].
24.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 1 giveaway.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Steelers159 of 170 plays carry both curves
(6:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry to PIT 21 for 11 yards (93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (93-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 20.
Swing −24.7 for BrownsExpected points −3.74 for BrownsThe model had Steelers 13 points higher than the market did.play 143
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:14PIT +25% win prob(6:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry to PIT 21 for 11 yards (93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (93-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 20.
4th · 1:58PIT +24% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (39-M.Fitzpatrick) [97-C.Heyward].
4th · 11:08CLE +21% win prob(11:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:57CLE +14% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 13-O.Beckham. PENALTY on PIT-56-A.Highsmith, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 39 - No Play.
3rd · 3:43CLE +13% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:24CLE +9% win prob(7:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end pushed ob at PIT 34 for 5 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Pat Freiermuth's 2-yard touchdown catch with 11:08 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:12Chase McLaughlin·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+30–3
2nd9:21Chris Boswell·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–3
3rd3:43Najee Harris·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+69–10
4th11:08Pat Freiermuth·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point no goodLead never changed again+615–10
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBrowns
Steelers7–1Browns
370Total yards306
5.3Yards per play5.3
39%Success rate41%
31%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays7
23First downs18
2Sacks taken4
0Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.10Browns: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Steelers: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.03Browns: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Steelers: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.23Browns: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 70 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Browns’s 58 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Browns 2.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Browns12.8%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PIT's early-down pass rate, 47.1% against a season mean of 57.3% — and PIT swings 10.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (39-M.Fitzpatrick) [97-C.Heyward].
Q4 1:58 · Browns · 4th & 12 at PIT 26 · gained nothing · -2.61 EP · −19.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 86 yards from the CLE 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
38%
Yards
676
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2764%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0967%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.0944%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15-0.1353%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4256%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Steelers0Browns3
Field goal14 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 7
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 48
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Steelers 40
2nd quarter48 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Steelers3Browns3
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Browns 13
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Browns 10
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 34
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 32
Steelers3Browns9
Steelers3Browns10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Steelers 10
Steelers9Browns10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Browns 8
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Browns 47
4th quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Steelers15Browns10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Browns 2
Offense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Steelers 32
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 28
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Steelers 24
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Browns 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
