2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Cleveland Browns

CLE -5.5 upsetU 43 ✓Browns closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 15–10. Biggest swing: Q4 6:14, PIT +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:14PIT — CLE CLE ball · 2nd & 8PIT 53%

(6:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry to PIT 21 for 11 yards (93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (93-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 20.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:14PIT +25% win prob(6:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry to PIT 21 for 11 yards (93-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (93-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 20.
Q4 · 1:58PIT +24% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (39-M.Fitzpatrick) [97-C.Heyward].
Q4 · 11:08CLE +21% win prob(11:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:57CLE +14% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 13-O.Beckham. PENALTY on PIT-56-A.Highsmith, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 39 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Browns
Offensive plays	70	58
Total yards	370 (edge)	306
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	39%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	4/13 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

22/34, 266 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.7 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

20/31, 225 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.9 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

26 att, 91 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

16 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

6/13 for 98 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

5/10 for 65 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	14	63	6:51	Turnover on downs
2	PIT	PIT 25	9	27	3:50	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 15	8	50	4:25	Turnover on downs
4	PIT	PIT 40	10	57	5:36	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 25	5	0	0:48	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 23	4	0	1:14	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 22	4	-5	1:09	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 37	12	53	4:29	Turnover on downs
9	CLE	CLE 10	6	24	1:17	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 35	1	0	0:21	End of half
11	PIT	PIT 27	5	5	1:05	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 14	9	81	4:19	Touchdown
13	PIT	PIT 22	14	78	5:57	Touchdown
14	CLE	CLE 40	5	9	1:57	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 17	14	88	5:38	Touchdown
16	CLE	CLE 20	9	59	5:00	Fumble
17	PIT	PIT 20	4	8	1:42	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 39	8	25	2:29	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	PIT 26	6	54	1:53	Turnover on downs

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	22/34	266	1	0	2	5.7
Chris Boswell	0/1	0	0	0	0	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	26	91	3.5	1	3.2
Chase Claypool	2	16	8.0	0	0.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	10	10.0	0	0.0
Anthony McFarland	1	1	1.0	0	-0.9
Ben Roethlisberger	1	0	0.0	0	0.0
Kalen Ballage	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	6	13	98	0	37%	-0.5
Chase Claypool	4	5	45	0	14%	1.4
Pat Freiermuth	4	7	44	1	20%	4.4
Zach Gentry	3	5	39	0	14%	-1.0
Najee Harris	3	3	29	0	9%	1.8
Benny Snell	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.3
James Washington	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Joe Schobert	4	3	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	4	2	1.5	0
Terrell Edmunds	4	1	0.0	0
Devin Bush	3	2	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	1	0.0	1
Alex Highsmith	1	3	0.0	0
Cameron Heyward	3	1	0.5	0
Arthur Maulet	3	1	0.0	0
Cameron Sutton	3	0	0.0	0
Chris Wormley	1	2	1.0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	20/31	225	0	0	4	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	16	61	3.8	0	-5.3
D'Ernest Johnson	4	22	5.5	1	0.5
Baker Mayfield	1	5	5.0	0	1.0
Jarvis Landry	1	5	5.0	0	0.2
Demetric Felton	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	5	10	65	32%	-4.2
David Njoku	3	3	39	10%	2.1
Harrison Bryant	2	2	33	6%	2.8
Rashard Higgins	2	4	27	13%	0.4
Austin Hooper	4	6	26	19%	0.2
Demetric Felton	1	1	14	3%	1.1
Nick Chubb	1	1	8	3%	0.4
D'Ernest Johnson	1	3	7	10%	-1.0
Odell Beckham	1	1	6	3%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Walker	2	6	0.0	1
Mack Wilson	5	2	0.0	0
Ronnie Harrison	4	1	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	4	1	0.0	1
Myles Garrett	3	1	1.0	0
John Johnson	1	3	0.0	0
Greedy Williams	3	1	0.0	1
Grant Delpit	3	1	0.0	0
Troy Hill	1	3	0.0	0
Malik McDowell	1	2	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -5.5
Closing total: 43
PIT moneyline: +196
CLE moneyline: -222

Browns closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 25 — under by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: PIT 14 days · CLE 10 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.