2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Soldier Field

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Chicago Bears

SF -4.5 ✓O 40 ✓49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 11.

San Francisco 49ers 33–22. Biggest swing: Q3 7:28, CHI +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 7:28SF — CHI SF ball · 3rd & 19CHI 69%

(7:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 7:28CHI +27% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at CHI 1 for 83 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
Q4 · 9:43CHI +17% win prob(9:43) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-54-F.Warner was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
Q2 · 0:25CHI +14% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 19-D.Samuel to CHI 4 for 50 yards (22-K.Vildor).
Q3 · 12:17CHI +10% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 84-M.Goodwin to SF 16 for 22 yards (4-E.Moseley).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Bears
Offensive plays	51	67
Total yards	472 (edge)	324
Yards per play	9.3 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.47 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	51% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	55%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.56 (edge)	0.36
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	-0.28
Third downs	4/9	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.47 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

17/28, 322 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

15.7 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

19/27, 175 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.7 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

18 att, 137 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

10 att, 103 yds, 1 TD

11.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

6/9 for 171 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

6/9 for 64 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 33	12	47	5:12	Turnover on downs
2	CHI	CHI 38	9	56	5:10	Turnover on downs
3	SF	SF 25	7	45	1:47	Turnover on downs
4	CHI	CHI 26	13	69	5:48	Touchdown
5	SF	SF 25	8	41	2:30	Turnover on downs
6	CHI	CHI 21	17	57	8:17	Turnover on downs
7	SF	SF 25	8	71	1:16	Turnover on downs
8	CHI	CHI 31	14	57	6:27	Turnover on downs
9	SF	SF 25	9	90	2:37	Touchdown
10	CHI	CHI 16	9	21	3:56	Punt
11	SF	SF 48	7	54	2:49	Touchdown
12	CHI	CHI 32	11	78	4:39	Touchdown
13	SF	SF 25	7	75	2:58	Touchdown
14	CHI	CHI 25	6	-14	2:10	Punt
15	SF	SF 37	7	49	2:28	Turnover on downs
16	CHI	CHI 31	2	0	0:22	Interception
17	SF	50	3	0	1:34	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	17/28	322	0	0	0	15.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	18	137	7.6	1	3.2
Jimmy Garoppolo	5	4	0.8	2	2.3
Jamycal Hasty	3	4	1.3	0	1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	6	9	171	33%	10.1
Mohamed Sanu	3	4	59	15%	4.0
Brandon Aiyuk	4	7	45	26%	0.8
Jamycal Hasty	2	2	29	7%	1.6
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	11	7%	-0.1
Charlie Woerner	1	2	7	7%	0.3
Jauan Jennings	0	1	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marcell Harris	6	1	1.0	0	0
Fred Warner	4	3	0.0	0	1
K'Waun Williams	4	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Norman	6	0	0.0	1	1
Jimmie Ward	6	0	0.0	0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	4	1	0.0	0	0
D.J. Jones	4	0	0.0	0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	4	0	0.0	0	0
Arik Armstead	3	1	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	3	0	2.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	19/27	175	1	1	4	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Fields	10	103	10.3	1	11.1
Khalil Herbert	23	72	3.1	0	-5.5
Ryan Nall	1	4	4.0	0	-0.6
Damien Williams	2	-3	-1.5	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	6	9	64	0	33%	3.3
Jesse James	3	3	38	1	11%	3.3
Marquise Goodwin	2	3	32	0	11%	4.0
Cole Kmet	3	6	24	0	22%	-2.3
Allen Robinson	3	4	21	0	15%	1.3
Khalil Herbert	2	2	-4	0	7%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Roquan Smith	5	1	0
DeAndre Houston-Carson	4	1	1
Tashaun Gipson	2	3	1
Alec Ogletree	3	2	0
Jaylon Johnson	3	1	1
Trevis Gipson	1	2	0
Danny Trevathan	1	2	0
Akiem Hicks	2	1	0
Robert Quinn	1	1	0
Kindle Vildor	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -4.5
Closing total: 40
SF moneyline: -210
CHI moneyline: +186

49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 40; the game landed 55 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: SF 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Matt Nagy