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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 8
It turned at Q3 7:28, 3rd and 19, on Deebo Samuel — 27.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:28 · 3rd and 19
Deebo Samuel
49ers
(7:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at CHI 1 for 83 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).
San Francisco 49ers 33–22. Biggest swing: Q3 7:28, 49ers +27.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
27.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.35 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.28 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.47 expected points per snap, against Bears at +0.09 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bears at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(7:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Elijah Mitchell's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 14:21 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Elijah Mitchell5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+823–1612 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryBears
49ers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 51 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Bears’s 67 at 58%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Bears 4.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.47 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 2.6% in week 7 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-4.1 ptsright on their number · +2.5 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 50 snaps
Bears-5.3 ptsright on their number · −2.8 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 86%
Tendencies room →49ers52.5%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 40 early downs
Bears49.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 54.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -48% to 155%
Fourth Down room →49ers33.3%right on their number · +10.0 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±26.0 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bears—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 41%
Tendencies room →49ers12.8%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bears0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −15.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
CHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 15.6 points below their season mean of 15.6% and 1.6 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
17/28, 322 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
15.7 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
19/27, 175 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
2.7 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Elijah Mitchell banked 9.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 27.3 | +8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 322 yd · 5 car, 4 yd, 2 TD |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 25.3 | +5.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 175 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10 car, 103 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.1 | +7.2 | 82% | 86% | 33% | 36% | 6/9, 171 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.7 | +9.3 | 64% | 48% | 0% | — | 18 car, 137 yd, 1 TD |
| Jesse JamesTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +5.5 | 54% | 44% | 11% | 11% | 3/3, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.4 | −1.4 | 77% | 64% | 33% | 57% | 6/9, 64 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.5 | −3.3 | 88% | 97% | 26% | 27% | 4/7, 45 yd |
| Mohamed SanuWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +1.8 | 45% | 59% | 15% | 21% | 3/4, 59 yd |
| Khalil HerbertRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.8 | −6.8 | 84% | 62% | 7% | 0% | 23 car, 72 yd · 2/2, -4 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Featured Receiver | 5.4 | −6.0 | 90% | 72% | 22% | 11% | 3/6, 24 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 5.3 | +1.1 | 34% | 52% | 7% | 3% | 3 car, 4 yd · 2/2, 29 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | 0.0 | 43% | 33% | 11% | 12% | 2/3, 32 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −1.0 | 80% | 67% | 15% | 11% | 3/4, 21 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 2.1 | −1.3 | 55% | 38% | 7% | 9% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.3 | 80% | 66% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Ryan NallRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| J.P. HoltzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jakeem GrantWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trenton CannonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Damien WilliamsRB | -0.3 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:43) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-54-F.Warner was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
Q4 9:43 · Bears · 4th & 1 at SF 22 · gained 22 · +3.87 EP · +26.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Bears349ers3Bears349ers3Bears949ers3Bears1049ers6Bears1049ers6Bears1349ers9Bears1349ers9Bears1649ers15Bears1649ers21Bears1649ers23Bears1649ers23Bears2249ers29Bears2249ers30Bears2249ers33Bears22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 17/28 | 322 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +15.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 18 | 137 | 7.6 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 2 | +2.3 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 6 | 9 | 171 | 0 | 33% | +10.1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 15% | +4.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcell Harris | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Waun Williams | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Norman |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 19/27 | 175 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_08_SF_CHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 40; the game landed 55 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 26% | +0.8 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 7% | +1.6 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Jimmie Ward | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Moseley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arik Armstead | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
| 103 |
| 10.3 |
| 1 |
| +11.1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 23 | 72 | 3.1 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Ryan Nall | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 33% | +3.3 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 11% | +3.3 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 11% | +4.0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 22% | −2.3 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 15% | +1.3 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 7% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Houston-Carson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alec Ogletree | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevis Gipson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Trevathan | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akiem Hicks | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Quinn | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
