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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:58 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 at New Orleans Saints 36. Final.
Buccaneers -4 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 8
New Orleans Saints 36, Buccaneers 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:36, 2nd and 10, on P.J. Williams — 36.0 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:36 · 2nd and 10
P.J. Williams
Saints
(1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at TB 40. 26-P.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 48.5 ✓
Dome
Buccaneers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 36–27. Biggest swing: Q4 1:36, Saints +36.0% win probability on one snap.
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chauncey Gardner-JohnsonSaintsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at NO 39. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to TB 35 for 26 yards (78-T.Wirfs).
20.4pts
Cyril GraysonBuccaneersQ4 5:52(5:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 35, YAC 15
26.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 13 on third down, against Saints at 5 of 14 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Buccaneers172 of 181 plays carry both curves
(1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at TB 40. 26-P.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +36.0 for SaintsExpected points +7.87 for SaintsThe model had Saints 8 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:36TB +36% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at TB 40. 26-P.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:52NO +27% win prob(5:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 35, YAC 15
2nd · 2:00TB +20% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at NO 39. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to TB 35 for 26 yards (78-T.Wirfs).
3rd · 1:22NO +18% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Pass 39, YAC 2
4th · 2:36NO +13% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short middle to 1-M.Callaway to TB 9 for 16 yards (35-J.Dean, 31-A.Winfield). Pass 14, YAC 2
2nd · 7:42TB +12% win prob(7:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NO 39 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan). FUMBLES (94-C.Jordan) [94-C.Jordan], RECOVERED by NO-93-D.Onyemata at NO 37.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brian Johnson's 23-yard field goal with 1:44 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st8:35Chris Godwin·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+77–0
Buccaneers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Buccaneers: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.05Saints: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.14Saints: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Buccaneers: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.11Saints: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 59 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Saints’s 71 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Saints 7.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Saints 421-362 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.6% in week 7 against 9.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Saints9.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.2 pts, 9.5 points above their season mean of -6.3 pts and 1.3 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%61 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%61 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%61 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Full-time98%60 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time97%59 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time95%58 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation64%39 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Heavy rotation61%37 snaps
7Leonard FournetteRB · Heavy rotation61%37 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Rotational46%28 snaps
25Giovani BernardRB · Situational21%13 snaps
1Jaelon DardenWR · Situational15%9 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Situational15%9 snaps
15Cyril GraysonWR · Situational13%8 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Situational10%6 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Situational3%2 snaps
64Aaron StinnieG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Dee DelaneyCBNick LeverettGSteve McLendonNTKyle TraskQBKe'Shawn VaughnRBAntonio BrownWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at TB 40. 26-P.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:36 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 10 at TB 25 · gained nothing · -7.87 EP · −28.3% win probability
170 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 76 yards from the NO 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
782
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0076%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0158%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0870%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.4870%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0138%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 32
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 44
Buccaneers6Saints0
Buccaneers7Saints0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Saints 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Buccaneers7Saints6
Buccaneers7Saints7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 16
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 49
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Saints 40
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThree
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Saints 31
Buccaneers7Saints10
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Buccaneers 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 49
Buccaneers7Saints16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Buccaneers7Saints22
Buccaneers7Saints23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Buccaneers 1
Buccaneers13Saints23
Buccaneers14Saints23
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 7
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Buccaneers20Saints23
Buccaneers21Saints23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Saints 41
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 29
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 38
Buccaneers21Saints26
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Buccaneers 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Buccaneers27Saints26
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to midfield
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Buccaneers27Saints29
Field goal15 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 5
The period ended1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Buccaneers27Saints35
Touchdown2 plays
Buccaneers27Saints36
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 21
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -4
Closing total
48.5
Buccaneers moneyline
-188
Saints moneyline
+168
Buccaneers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 63 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Saints 6 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Sean Payton
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 3:52NO +12% win prob(3:52) 11-D.Harris right end to TB 38 for 22 yards (31-A.Winfield). 41-A.Kamara took the handoff running left, then lateralled to 11-D.Harris sweeping right.
3rd · 12:18NO +9% win prob(12:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short left to 11-D.Harris to TB 25 for 7 yards (43-R.Cockrell) [31-A.Winfield]. Pass 7, YAC 0
