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2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
27
36
New Orleans Saints 36–27. Biggest swing: Q4 1:36, TB +36% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at TB 40. 26-P.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Buccaneers | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 71 |
| Total yards | 421 (edge) | 362 |
| Yards per play | 7.1 (edge) | 5.1 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.03 | 0.05 (edge) |
| Success rate | 47% (edge) | 38% |
| Dropback rate | 75% | 63% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 | 0.14 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 | -0.11 (edge) |
| Third downs | 8/13 (edge) | 5/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 20 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 4 | 0 (edge) |
Buccaneers outgained Saints 421–362 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
28/40, 375 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
1.0 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected
Passing · NO
16/29, 159 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-0.8 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 2 | NO | NO 14 | 7 | 35 | 2:42 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | TB | NO 44 | 7 | 54 | 2:26 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | NO | NO 25 | 13 | 75 | 5:49 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | TB | TB 25 | 10 | 35 | 4:17 | Punt | |
| 6 | NO | NO 8 | 6 | 9 | 1:55 | Punt | |
| 7 | TB | TB 13 | 8 | 50 | 3:51 | Fumble | |
| 8 | NO | NO 37 | 10 | 44 | 5:16 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | TB | TB 25 | 3 | 24 | 0:32 | Interception | |
| 10 | NO | TB 35 | 6 | 35 | 1:21 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | TB | TB 25 | 2 | 6 | 0:27 | End of half | |
| 12 | NO | NO 24 | 12 | 71 | 5:59 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | TB | TB 25 | 10 | 75 | 3:28 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | NO | NO 28 | 5 | -6 | 1:07 | Punt | |
| 15 | TB | TB 31 | 6 | 74 | 3:11 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | NO | NO 25 | 5 | 4 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 17 | TB | TB 19 | 7 | 29 | 3:08 | Punt | |
| 18 | NO | NO 34 | 8 | 30 | 3:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | TB | TB 25 | 7 | 75 | 2:47 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | NO | NO 25 | 13 | 65 | 4:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | TB | TB 25 | 3 | 0 | 0:17 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 22 | TB | TB 19 | 5 | -8 | 0:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | NO | TB 11 | 1 | 0 | 0:28 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/40 | 375 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Leonard Fournette | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 | -2.3 |
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 8 | 12 | 140 | 1 | 29% | -3.5 |
| Tyler Johnson | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 15% | 5.6 |
| Cyril Grayson | 1 | 1 | 50 | 1 | 2% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pierre Desir | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lavonte David |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 16/29 | 159 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Jameis Winston | 6/10 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 63 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4.2 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 10% | 3.7 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 12% | -0.2 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 7% | 0.6 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 10% | -2.1 |
| Jaelon Darden | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7% | -0.7 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2% | 2.5 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | 0.3 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.8 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ndamukong Suh | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 1 | -4.9 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -4.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin White | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 3% | 2.4 |
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 20% | 2.0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 9% | 3.8 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 14% | 0.1 |
| Garrett Griffin | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 9% | 1.6 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | 1.4 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 11% | -1.1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | -1.1 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 17% | -4.1 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | 1.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Williams | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kwon Alexander | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Davenport | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Paulson Adebo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
