2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

TB -4 upsetO 48.5 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 36–27. Biggest swing: Q4 1:36, TB +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:36TB — NO TB ball · 2nd & 10NO 61%

(1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at TB 40. 26-P.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:36TB +36% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at TB 40. 26-P.Williams for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:52NO +27% win prob(5:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Grayson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 35, YAC 15
Q2 · 2:00TB +20% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at NO 39. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to TB 35 for 26 yards (78-T.Wirfs).
Q3 · 1:22NO +18% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Pass 39, YAC 2

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Saints
Offensive plays	59	71
Total yards	421 (edge)	362
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	75%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	8/13 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	17	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Saints 421–362 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

28/40, 375 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

1.0 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Trevor SiemianQB

16/29, 159 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.8 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

19 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

6 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

8/12 for 140 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · -3.5 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Tyler JohnsonWR

5/6 for 65 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	5	7	1:24	Punt
2	NO	NO 14	7	35	2:42	Turnover on downs
3	TB	NO 44	7	54	2:26	Touchdown
4	NO	NO 25	13	75	5:49	Touchdown
5	TB	TB 25	10	35	4:17	Punt
6	NO	NO 8	6	9	1:55	Punt
7	TB	TB 13	8	50	3:51	Fumble
8	NO	NO 37	10	44	5:16	Turnover on downs
9	TB	TB 25	3	24	0:32	Interception
10	NO	TB 35	6	35	1:21	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 25	2	6	0:27	End of half
12	NO	NO 24	12	71	5:59	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	10	75	3:28	Touchdown
14	NO	NO 28	5	-6	1:07	Punt
15	TB	TB 31	6	74	3:11	Touchdown
16	NO	NO 25	5	4	0:59	Punt
17	TB	TB 19	7	29	3:08	Punt
18	NO	NO 34	8	30	3:37	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 25	7	75	2:47	Touchdown
20	NO	NO 25	13	65	4:03	Turnover on downs
21	TB	TB 25	3	0	0:17	Defensive touchdown
22	TB	TB 19	5	-8	0:56	Turnover on downs
23	NO	TB 11	1	0	0:28	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	28/40	375	4	2	3	1.0
Leonard Fournette	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Giovani Bernard	2	30	15.0	0.8
Leonard Fournette	8	26	3.3	-2.3
Ronald Jones	3	13	4.3	-0.2
Tom Brady	1	2	2.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	8	12	140	1	29%	-3.5
Tyler Johnson	5	6	65	0	15%	5.6
Cyril Grayson	1	1	50	1	2%	4.2
Mike Evans	2	4	48	1	10%	3.7
Leonard Fournette	3	5	17	0	12%	-0.2
O.J. Howard	2	3	16	0	7%	0.6
Cameron Brate	2	4	15	0	10%	-2.1
Jaelon Darden	3	3	11	0	7%	-0.7
Giovani Bernard	1	1	7	1	2%	2.5
Ronald Jones	1	1	6	0	2%	0.3
Rob Gronkowski	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	6	4	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	9	0	0.0	1
Pierre Desir	7	0	0.0	1
Lavonte David	4	2	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	2	2	0.0	1
Ndamukong Suh	1	3	1.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	2	0.0	0
Vita Vea	2	1	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	2	1	0.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	2	1	0.0	2

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Siemian	16/29	159	1	0	1	-0.8
Jameis Winston	6/10	56	1	0	0	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	19	61	3.2	1	-4.9
Jameis Winston	4	40	10.0	0	6.5
Mark Ingram	6	27	4.5	0	0.7
Deonte Harty	1	22	22.0	0	1.4
Trevor Siemian	2	2	1.0	0	-4.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kevin White	1	1	38	0	3%	2.4
Deonte Harty	3	7	35	0	20%	2.0
Tre'Quan Smith	3	3	33	1	9%	3.8
Marquez Callaway	3	5	30	0	14%	0.1
Garrett Griffin	3	3	30	0	9%	1.6
Mark Ingram	2	2	25	0	6%	1.4
Alvin Kamara	3	4	15	0	11%	-1.1
Ty Montgomery	1	2	4	0	6%	-1.1
Adam Trautman	2	6	4	0	17%	-4.1
Alex Armah	1	1	1	1	3%	1.3
Juwan Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marcus Williams	5	3	0.0	0	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	5	1	0.0	1	1
Demario Davis	3	2	0.0	0	0
Pete Werner	2	2	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	1	3	0.0	0	2
Kwon Alexander	3	1	1.0	0	0
Marcus Davenport	3	0	0.0	0	0
Shy Tuttle	1	1	0.0	0	1
Paulson Adebo	1	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -4
Closing total: 48.5
TB moneyline: -188
NO moneyline: +168

Buccaneers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 63 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: TB 7 days · NO 6 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.