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2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
34
31
Tennessee Titans 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:33, TEN +49% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden [48-B.Dupree] at IND 2. 24-E.Molden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Titans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 67 | 72 |
| Total yards | 341 (edge) | 307 |
| Yards per play | 5.1 (edge) | 4.3 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.10 (edge) | -0.14 |
| Success rate | 43% | 49% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 55% | 74% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.20 (edge) | -0.24 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.02 | 0.15 (edge) |
| Third downs | 8/17 (edge) | 7/16 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 4 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
23/33, 265 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
7.8 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected
Passing · IND
27/51, 231 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
-13.0 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected
Receiving · IND
10/15 for 86 yds, 2 TD
31% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | IND 18 | 16 | 82 | 6:19 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | TEN | TEN 25 | 3 | 3 | 0:52 | Interception | |
| 3 | IND | TEN 7 | 2 | 7 | 0:05 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:41 | Punt | |
| 5 | IND | IND 32 | 7 | 28 | 3:08 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 40 | 12 | 60 | 5:48 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | IND | IND 32 | 5 | 7 | 2:53 | Punt | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 8 | 8 | 32 | 4:50 | Interception | |
| 9 | TEN | TEN 43 | 2 | 57 | 0:11 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | IND | IND 25 | 14 | 57 | 4:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | TEN | TEN 25 | 16 | 70 | 7:18 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | IND | IND 25 | 7 | 18 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 13 | TEN | TEN 13 | 4 | 14 | 1:46 | Punt | |
| 14 | IND | IND 43 | 5 | 16 | 2:21 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | TEN | TEN 25 | 11 | 42 | 5:06 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | IND | IND 25 | 15 | 28 | 5:50 | Punt | |
| 17 | TEN | TEN 26 | 10 | 39 | 3:52 | Punt | |
| 18 | IND | IND 8 | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 19 | IND | IND 25 | 7 | 48 | 1:04 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | TEN | TEN 25 | 3 | -8 | 0:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | IND | IND 30 | 5 | 4 | 1:05 | Punt | |
| 22 | TEN | TEN 28 | 4 | 8 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 23 | IND | IND 15 | 4 | 12 | 1:39 | Interception | |
| 24 | TEN | IND 32 | 4 | 15 | 1:45 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 82 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/33 | 265 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7.8 |
| A.J. Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 28 | 68 | 2.4 | 0 | -5.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 | 4.8 |
| Logan Woodside | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 11 | 155 | 1 | 34% | 10.9 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 9% | 0.1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 4 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long Jr. | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Monty Rice | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harold Landry | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Mabin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 27/51 | 231 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -13.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 65 — over by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6% | 1.7 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 9% | 3.1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | 3.0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 16% | -8.5 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -2.0 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Naquan Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Janoris Jenkins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Dane Cruikshank | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2.0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 15 | 86 | 2 | 31% | -0.1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 8% | 2.2 |
| Zach Pascal | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 17% | -0.2 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 10% | 2.6 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 10% | -1.6 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 4% | 1.0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -2.8 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.8 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -3.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Okereke | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| George Odum | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Sendejo | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grover Stewart | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Rhodes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Franklin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al-Quadin Muhammad | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
