2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Indianapolis Colts

IND -3 upsetO 51 ✓Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:33, TEN +49% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:33TEN — IND IND ball · 1st & 10IND 62%

(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden [48-B.Dupree] at IND 2. 24-E.Molden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:33TEN +49% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden [48-B.Dupree] at IND 2. 24-E.Molden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 5:56TEN +30% win prob(5:56) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at IND 46. 31-K.Byard to IND 32 for 14 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox).
Q4 · 0:32IND +23% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 16-A.Dulin. PENALTY on TEN-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at TEN 43 - No Play.
OT · 4:08IND +17% win prob(4:08) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Colts
Offensive plays	67	72
Total yards	341 (edge)	307
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	43%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.15 (edge)
Third downs	8/17 (edge)	7/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

23/33, 265 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

7.8 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

27/51, 231 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-13.0 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

16 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

28 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-5.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

10/11 for 155 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

10/15 for 86 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 18	16	82	6:19	Touchdown
2	TEN	TEN 25	3	3	0:52	Interception
3	IND	TEN 7	2	7	0:05	Touchdown
4	TEN	TEN 25	5	9	1:41	Punt
5	IND	IND 32	7	28	3:08	Turnover on downs
6	TEN	TEN 40	12	60	5:48	Touchdown
7	IND	IND 32	5	7	2:53	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 8	8	32	4:50	Interception
9	TEN	TEN 43	2	57	0:11	Touchdown
10	IND	IND 25	14	57	4:13	Turnover on downs
11	TEN	TEN 25	16	70	7:18	Touchdown
12	IND	IND 25	7	18	2:14	Punt
13	TEN	TEN 13	4	14	1:46	Punt
14	IND	IND 43	5	16	2:21	Touchdown
15	TEN	TEN 25	11	42	5:06	Turnover on downs
16	IND	IND 25	15	28	5:50	Punt
17	TEN	TEN 26	10	39	3:52	Punt
18	IND	IND 8	1	0	0:07	Defensive touchdown
19	IND	IND 25	7	48	1:04	Touchdown
20	TEN	TEN 25	3	-8	0:22	Turnover on downs
21	IND	IND 30	5	4	1:05	Punt
22	TEN	TEN 28	4	8	1:28	Punt
23	IND	IND 15	4	12	1:39	Interception
24	TEN	IND 32	4	15	1:45	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 82 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	23/33	265	3	2	3	7.8
A.J. Brown	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	28	68	2.4	-5.5
Ryan Tannehill	2	26	13.0	4.8
Logan Woodside	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	10	11	155	1	34%	10.9
Jeremy McNichols	3	3	33	0	9%	0.1
Geoff Swaim	4	5	23	1	16%	3.0
MyCole Pruitt	2	2	22	0	6%	1.7
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	3	16	1	9%	3.1
Anthony Firkser	1	2	8	0	6%	3.0
Marcus Johnson	1	5	8	0	16%	-8.5
Chester Rogers	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
David Long Jr.	3	3	0.0	0	1
Monty Rice	3	3	0.0	0	1
Harold Landry	4	1	1.0	0	0
Greg Mabin	3	1	0.0	0	0
Amani Hooker	1	2	0.0	0	1
Naquan Jones	3	0	0.0	0	0
Janoris Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0	0
Denico Autry	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	2	0	0.0	1	3
Dane Cruikshank	1	1	0.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	27/51	231	3	2	1	-13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	16	70	4.4	1	2.0
Carson Wentz	3	11	3.7	0	1.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	10	15	86	2	31%	-0.1
Jonathan Taylor	3	4	52	0	8%	2.2
Zach Pascal	5	8	43	0	17%	-0.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	5	22	0	10%	2.6
T.Y. Hilton	2	5	16	0	10%	-1.6
Jack Doyle	2	2	12	1	4%	1.0
Ashton Dulin	0	4	0	0	8%	-2.8
Kylen Granson	1	1	0	0	2%	-0.8
Mo Alie-Cox	0	4	0	0	8%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Bobby Okereke	7	2	0	0
Kenny Moore	5	2	1	2
George Odum	5	0	0	0
Andrew Sendejo	4	1	0	0
Shaquille Leonard	2	3	0	1
Grover Stewart	3	1	0	0
Xavier Rhodes	2	1	0	0
Zaire Franklin	2	1	0	0
E.J. Speed	2	1	0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3
Closing total: 51
TEN moneyline: +144
IND moneyline: -160

Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 65 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: TEN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.