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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee34
BY 3final margin
ColtsIndianapolis31
Tennessee Titans 34 at Indianapolis Colts 31. Final.
Colts -3 upsetO 51 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 8
Tennessee Titans 34, Colts 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:33, 1st and 10, on Elijah Molden — 49.5 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:33 · 1st and 10
Elijah Molden
Titans
(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden [48-B.Dupree] at IND 2. 24-E.Molden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:33, Titans +49.5% win probability on one snap.
49.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Carson WentzColtsQ4 0:32(:32) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 16-A.Dulin. PENALTY on TEN-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at TEN 43 - No Play.
22.9pts
Kevin ByardTitansOT 5:56(5:56) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at IND 46. 31-K.Byard to IND 32 for 14 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox).
29.9pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.14 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Titans190 of 204 plays carry both curves
(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden [48-B.Dupree] at IND 2. 24-E.Molden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −49.5 for ColtsExpected points −7.35 for ColtsThe model had Titans 6 points higher than the market did.play 165
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:33TEN +49% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden [48-B.Dupree] at IND 2. 24-E.Molden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 5:56TEN +30% win prob(5:56) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at IND 46. 31-K.Byard to IND 32 for 14 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox).
4th · 0:32IND +23% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 16-A.Dulin. PENALTY on TEN-31-K.Byard, Defensive Pass Interference, 42 yards, enforced at TEN 43 - No Play.
Overtime · 4:08IND +17% win prob(4:08) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Overtime · 7:33IND +16% win prob(7:33) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
4th · 1:39TEN +15% win prob(1:39) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to IND 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Randy Bullock's 44-yard field goal with 4:08 left in overtime put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime4:08Randy Bullock·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+334–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryColts
Titans3–5Colts
341Total yards307
5.1Yards per play4.3
43%Success rate49%
47%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
3Explosive plays4
16First downs19
3Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Titans: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.14Colts: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Titans: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.24Colts: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Titans: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.15Colts: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 67 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Colts’s 72 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Colts 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's early-down pass rate, 71.7%, is past their previous high of 66.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Colts13.5%
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.7%, 20.7 points above their season mean of 51.0% and 1.4 times their own 14.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
C.Wentz pass−45% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden [48-B.Dupree] at IND 2. 24-E.Molden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:33 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 8 · gained nothing · -7.35 EP · −45.0% win probability
188 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 204 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 204 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 82 yards from the IND 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
204 of 204 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
204
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
647
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1277%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0774%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26-0.0535%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.5669%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.7338%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
204 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
204 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Titans0Colts6
Titans0Colts7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Titans 2
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Titans0Colts13
Titans0Colts14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Titans 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Colts 43
2nd quarter44 plays
Titans6Colts14
Titans7Colts14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 6
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 36
Intercepted9 plays, from the Titans 8 to the Titans 46
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Titans13Colts14
Titans14Colts14
Touchdown2 plays
Titans14Colts17
Field goal19 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 16
3rd quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Titans20Colts17
Titans21Colts17
Touchdown17 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 5
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 43
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Titans 21
Titans21Colts23
Titans21Colts24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Titans 5
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 42
4th quarter58 plays
Titans24Colts24
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Colts 28
Punt18 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Punt12 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Colts 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Titans30Colts24
Touchdown1 play
Titans31Colts24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.6 seconds
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Titans31Colts30
Titans31Colts31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 1
The period ended5 plays
Overtime21 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 34
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 36
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Colts 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Titans34Colts31
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
