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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 8
It turned at Q4 6:54, 3rd and 8, on Jerry Jeudy — 14.8 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 6:54, Broncos +14.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:54 · 3rd and 8
Jerry Jeudy
Broncos
(6:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at WAS 29 for 18 yards.
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Commanders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Broncos at 4 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Broncos won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Commanders at 5 of 14 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(6:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at WAS 29 for 18 yards.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
7 points with 4:27 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Broncos7 pts7 pointsthe league feed did not file the play that scored themLead never changed again+710–175 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryBroncos
Broncos ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 68 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Broncos’s 51 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Broncos 2.
Commanders outgained Broncos 342-273 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders0.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 68 snaps
Broncos-0.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Commanders59.2%right on their number · +4.9 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 49 early downs
Broncos57.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 52.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.2%.
Broncos—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders23.3%leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos13.3%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
WAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 7.9 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 1.1 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
24/39, 270 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-2.6 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
19/26, 213 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.6 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Melvin Gordon banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin GordonRB · Committee Back | 19.2 | +8.4 | 57% | 60% | 12% | 2% | 10 car, 47 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| J.D. McKissicRB · Receiving Back | 17.3 | +4.9 | 46% | 64% | 22% | 0% | 3 car, 10 yd · 8/8, 83 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.1 | +4.3 | 70% | 64% | 16% | 33% | 3/6, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB · Starter QB | 12.6 | +3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/26, 213 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | −3.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/39, 270 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 10 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +4.0 | 94% | 97% | 12% | 23% | 3/3, 64 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 8.4 | +0.2 | 33% | 27% | 8% | 0% | 8 car, 34 yd · 3/3, 20 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | +0.5 | 72% | 77% | 16% | 19% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/4, 39 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 6.8 | −3.9 | 43% | 40% | 16% | 2% | 9 car, 35 yd · 2/4, 13 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 6.5 | −6.2 | 87% | 89% | 19% | 20% | 1 car, 12 yd · 3/7, 23 yd |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +1.9 | 49% | 43% | 12% | 9% | 3/3, 34 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −0.9 | 87% | 93% | 16% | 31% | 2/4, 40 yd |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +1.0 | 63% | 71% | 8% | 16% | 2/3, 35 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 4.6 | −1.8 | 23% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 11 car, 46 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −2.7 | 100% | 98% | 11% | 3% | 2/4, 12 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −0.5 | 30% | 24% | 5% | 9% | 1/2, 22 yd |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.7 | 21% | 24% | 5% | 7% | 1/2, 20 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.9 | 77% | 77% | 16% | 9% | 2/4, 8 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 21% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Tyrie ClevelandWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kendall HintonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:27) 25-M.Gordon right end to DEN 21 for -2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-51-D.Mayo at DEN 24.
Q4 0:27 · Broncos · 3rd & 9 at DEN 23 · gained nothing · -3.09 EP · −15.8% win probability
145 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 94 yards from the WAS 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Broncos3Commanders3Broncos3Commanders3Broncos9Commanders3Broncos10Commanders9Broncos10Commanders10Broncos10Commanders10Broncos17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 24/39 | 270 | 1 | 2 | 5 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaret Patterson | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Terry McLaurin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 8 | 8 | 83 | 0 | 22% | +6.9 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Holcomb | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Landon Collins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/26 | 213 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_08_WAS_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 45; the game landed 27 — under by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 12 |
| 12.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.1 |
| +3.5 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 8% | +1.1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 19% | −2.1 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 5% | +1.8 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 11% | −4.0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Jaret Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chase Young | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Smith-Williams | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 1 | +0.9 |
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 12% | +4.0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 16% | +1.2 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 16% | +5.6 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 12% | +0.6 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 12% | −0.5 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 16% | +0.1 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 16% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baron Browning | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Ronald Darby | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Young | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Reed | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeShawn Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
