2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High

Washington Commanders

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -4 ✓U 45 ✓Broncos closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.

Denver Broncos 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 6:54, DEN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:54WAS — DEN DEN ball · 3rd & 8DEN 60%

(6:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at WAS 29 for 18 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:54DEN +15% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at WAS 29 for 18 yards.
Q3 · 0:44DEN +13% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 1-D.Carter for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 9:00WAS +12% win prob(9:00) 12-C.Blewitt 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-D.Jones), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q4 · 0:27WAS +11% win prob(:27) 25-M.Gordon right end to DEN 21 for -2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-51-D.Mayo at DEN 24.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Broncos
Offensive plays	68	51
Total yards	342 (edge)	273
Yards per play	5.0	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	40%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	5	4 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Commanders outgained Broncos 342–273 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

24/39, 270 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.6 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

19/26, 213 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

10 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jaret PattersonRB

11 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

J.D. McKissicRB

8/8 for 83 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

3/3 for 64 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	10	56	5:30	Turnover on downs
2	DEN	DEN 19	10	42	5:20	Punt
3	WAS	WAS 17	11	46	5:28	Turnover on downs
4	DEN	DEN 35	7	38	3:15	Turnover on downs
5	WAS	WAS 25	11	41	5:02	Turnover on downs
6	DEN	DEN 25	9	75	4:14	Touchdown
7	WAS	WAS 25	8	29	1:11	Interception
8	DEN	DEN 25	8	19	4:01	Punt
9	WAS	WAS 8	4	-1	2:02	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 46	4	5	1:55	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 6	11	94	6:24	Touchdown
12	DEN	DEN 25	11	30	4:41	Turnover on downs
13	WAS	WAS 43	6	28	2:02	Turnover on downs
14	DEN	DEN 37	9	63	4:28	Touchdown
15	WAS	WAS 25	12	55	3:50	Interception
16	DEN	DEN 22	3	1	0:16	Fumble
17	WAS	DEN 24	4	-6	0:21	Turnover on downs

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 94 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	24/39	270	1	2	5	-2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaret Patterson	11	46	4.2	2.0
Antonio Gibson	8	34	4.3	-1.5
Terry McLaurin	1	12	12.0	0.8
Taylor Heinicke	1	10	10.0	1.3
J.D. McKissic	3	10	3.3	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
J.D. McKissic	8	8	83	0	22%	6.9
DeAndre Carter	3	6	51	1	16%	3.5
Adam Humphries	2	3	35	0	8%	1.1
Terry McLaurin	3	7	23	0	19%	-2.1
Dax Milne	1	2	22	0	5%	1.8
Antonio Gibson	3	3	20	0	8%	0.7
Cam Sims	1	2	20	0	5%	-1.5
Ricky Seals-Jones	2	4	12	0	11%	-4.0
John Bates	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Jaret Patterson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cole Holcomb	5	3	0.0	0
Kamren Curl	5	2	0.0	0
Landon Collins	4	3	1.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	3	0.0	0
Daron Payne	2	2	1.0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	1	0.0	2
Chase Young	2	1	0.0	0
James Smith-Williams	1	2	1.0	0
Bobby McCain	2	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	1	1	1.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	19/26	213	1	0	4	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	10	47	4.7	1	0.9
Javonte Williams	9	35	3.9	0	-0.5
Teddy Bridgewater	1	1	1.0	0	0.5
Jerry Jeudy	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tim Patrick	3	3	64	0	12%	4.0
Courtland Sutton	2	4	40	0	16%	1.2
Jerry Jeudy	4	4	39	0	16%	5.6
Albert Okwuegbunam	3	3	34	0	12%	0.6
Melvin Gordon	3	3	15	1	12%	-0.5
Javonte Williams	2	4	13	0	16%	0.1
Noah Fant	2	4	8	0	16%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Baron Browning	5	3	0.0	0	0
Kareem Jackson	6	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	6	0	0.0	2	2
Ronald Darby	4	2	0.0	0	0
Shelby Harris	2	3	0.5	0	0
Kenny Young	1	3	0.0	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	1	2	1.5	0	0
Justin Strnad	2	1	0.0	0	0
Malik Reed	3	0	2.0	0	1
DeShawn Williams	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -4
Closing total: 45
WAS moneyline: +170
DEN moneyline: -191

Broncos closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 45; the game landed 27 — under by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: WAS 7 days · DEN 10 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Vic Fangio