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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Commanders147 of 157 plays carry both curves
(6:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at WAS 29 for 18 yards.
Swing +14.8 for BroncosExpected points +2.29 for BroncosThe model had Commanders 6 points higher than the market did.play 129
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:54DEN +15% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy ran ob at WAS 29 for 18 yards.
3rd · 0:44DEN +13% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 1-D.Carter for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:00WAS +12% win prob(9:00) 12-C.Blewitt 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-D.Jones), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
4th · 0:27WAS +11% win prob(:27) 25-M.Gordon right end to DEN 21 for -2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-51-D.Mayo at DEN 24.
4th · 11:02WAS +11% win prob(11:02) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4th · 13:13DEN +10% win prob(13:13) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 33-J.Williams pushed ob at WAS 40 for 11 yards (99-C.Young).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
7 points with 4:27 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd10:31Brandon McManus·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–3
2nd5:30Chris Blewitt·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+33–3
3rd0:44DeAndre Carter·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke+710–10
4th4:27Broncos·7 pts7 pointsthe league feed did not file the play that scored themthe league feed did not file the play that scored themLead never changed again+710–17
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryBroncos
Commanders3–6Broncos
342Total yards273
5.0Yards per play5.4
40%Success rate45%
36%Third-down rate54%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays4
20First downs16
5Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Commanders: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.08Broncos: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.12Broncos: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Commanders: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.02Broncos: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 68 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Broncos’s 51 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Broncos 2.
NoteCommanders outgained Broncos 342-273 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos13.3%
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.3%, 7.9 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 1.1 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Charles LenoT · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Saahdiq CharlesT · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%70 snaps
4Taylor HeinickeQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
83Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Every snap100%70 snaps
79Ereck FlowersG · Full-time96%67 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time87%61 snaps
1DeAndre CarterWR · Heavy rotation70%49 snaps
13Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation63%44 snaps
69Tyler LarsenC · Heavy rotation60%42 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Rotational46%32 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Rotational41%29 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Rotational33%23 snaps
15Dax MilneWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
32Jaret PattersonRB · Situational23%16 snaps
87John BatesTE · Situational21%15 snaps
11Cam SimsWR · Situational21%15 snaps
18Antonio Gandy-GoldenWR · Situational4%3 snaps
60Keith IsmaelC · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
William JacksonCBBrandon ScherffGSamuel CosmiTCornelius LucasTJace SternbergerTECurtis SamuelWRDyami BrownWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Gordon right−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:27) 25-M.Gordon right end to DEN 21 for -2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-51-D.Mayo at DEN 24.
Q4 0:27 · Broncos · 3rd & 9 at DEN 23 · gained nothing · -3.09 EP · −15.8% win probability
145 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 94 yards from the WAS 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
39%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0271%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0873%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.0537%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0836%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Broncos 19
Punt13 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Commanders 30
The period ended10 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Broncos 26
2nd quarter43 plays
No good4 plays
Commanders0Broncos3
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Commanders 21
Commanders3Broncos3
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Broncos 29
Commanders3Broncos9
Commanders3Broncos10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Commanders 15
Intercepted11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Broncos 36
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 44
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 9
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Commanders 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Commanders9Broncos10
Commanders10Broncos10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Commanders 6 to the Broncos 20
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Commanders 29
No good6 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Broncos 29
Drive ended3 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Commanders 49
Commanders10Broncos17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Drive ended4 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Commanders 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown2 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Broncos 7
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 23
Turnover on downs6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -4
Closing total
45
Commanders moneyline
+170
Broncos moneyline
-191
Broncos closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 45; the game landed 27 — under by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 43°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Broncos 10 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Vic Fangio
4th · 1:17
WAS +9% win prob
(1:17) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at DEN 19 for -12 yards (59-M.Reed). FUMBLES (59-M.Reed) [59-M.Reed], recovered by WAS-72-C.Leno at DEN 20.
4th · 0:49WAS +9% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 11-C.Sims INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN -2. 31-J.Simmons ran ob at DEN 22 for 24 yards (41-J.McKissic). Penalty on WAS-41-J.McKissic, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on DEN-31-J.Simmons, Taunting, offsetting.
