For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 31 at San Francisco 49ers 17. Final.
49ers -5.5 upsetO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 9
Arizona Cardinals 31, 49ers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:11, 1st and 10, on Antoine Wesley — 10.8 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:11 · 1st and 10
Antoine Wesley
Cardinals
(1:11) (Shotgun) 13-C.Kirk pass deep right to 85-A.Wesley pushed ob at SF 1 for 33 yards (32-T.Wilson). Caught SF 1. 0-YAC Arizona challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
49ers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 1:11, Cardinals +10.8% win probability on one snap.
10.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
James ConnerCardinalsQ1 3:00(3:00) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 6-J.Conner ran ob at ARI 33 for 21 yards (4-E.Moseley). Caught ARI 12. 21-YAC
7.6pts
Brandon AiyukCardinalsQ2 12:34(12:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to ARI 8 for 22 yards (9-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), RECOVERED by ARI-58-J.Hicks at ARI 7. 58-J.Hicks to ARI 7 for no gain (44-K.Juszczyk). Caught ARI 13. 5-YAC
7.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.59 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 8 chunk plays, against 49ers at 5 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Cardinals160 of 170 plays carry both curves
(1:11) (Shotgun) 13-C.Kirk pass deep right to 85-A.Wesley pushed ob at SF 1 for 33 yards (32-T.Wilson). Caught SF 1. 0-YAC Arizona challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the
Swing −10.8 for 49ersExpected points −3.03 for 49ersThe model had Cardinals 15 points higher than the market did.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:11SF +11% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 13-C.Kirk pass deep right to 85-A.Wesley pushed ob at SF 1 for 33 yards (32-T.Wilson). Caught SF 1. 0-YAC Arizona challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
1st · 3:00SF +8% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 6-J.Conner ran ob at ARI 33 for 21 yards (4-E.Moseley). Caught ARI 12. 21-YAC
2nd · 12:34ARI +7% win prob(12:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to ARI 8 for 22 yards (9-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), RECOVERED by ARI-58-J.Hicks at ARI 7. 58-J.Hicks to ARI 7 for no gain (44-K.Juszczyk). Caught ARI 13. 5-YAC
1st · 10:37ARI +7% win prob(10:37) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to 50 for 18 yards (7-B.Murphy). FUMBLES (7-B.Murphy), RECOVERED by ARI-58-J.Hicks at ARI 43. Caught SF 43. 7-YAC
1st · 13:28ARI +7% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at ARI 46 for -4 yards (44-M.Golden).
3rd · 13:44SF +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Conner's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 6:13 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:13James Conner·13-yd TD run13-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
3rd5:03Brandon Aiyuk·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+731–14
4th8:26Robbie Gould·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+331–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
Cardinals7–149ers
438Total yards337
6.5Yards per play6.0
45%Success rate45%
47%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays5
20First downs21
2Sacks taken5
0Turnovers3
The read
Cardinals ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Cardinals: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.1149ers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.59Cardinals: +0.59 expected points added per play
−0.1049ers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Cardinals: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.1649ers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 67 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against 49ers’s 56 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 5, 49ers 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's early-down pass rate, 78.3%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 3 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
high through week 9Against their seasonOver Expected
SF's pass rate over expected, +6.6 pts, is past their previous high of +0.5 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
49ers16.7%
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.3%, 28.9 points above their season mean of 49.4% and 2.0 times their own 14.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 5 inactive
74D.J. HumphriesT · Every snap100%70 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%70 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%70 snaps
12Colt McCoyQB · Full-time97%68 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time96%67 snaps
64Sean HarlowG · Full-time87%61 snaps
4Rondale MooreWR · Full-time81%57 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Full-time80%56 snaps
6James ConnerRB · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
85Antoine WesleyWR · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
73Max GarciaC · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
79Josh JonesG · Rotational47%33 snaps
81Darrell DanielsTE · Rotational46%32 snaps
26Eno BenjaminRB · Situational24%17 snaps
67Justin PughG · Situational13%9 snaps
17Andy IsabellaWR · Situational10%7 snaps
83Greg DortchWR · Situational6%4 snaps
15Chris StrevelerQB · Situational3%2 snaps
2Chase EdmondsRB · Situational1%1 snap
41David WellsTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Kevin PetersonCBJames WigginsFSKyler MurrayQBJonathan WardRBDeAndre HopkinsWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass−9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:37) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to 50 for 18 yards (7-B.Murphy). FUMBLES (7-B.Murphy), RECOVERED by ARI-58-J.Hicks at ARI 43. Caught SF 43. 7-YAC
Q1 10:37 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 32 · gained 18 · -4.01 EP · −8.9% win probability
158 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 85 yards from the ARI 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
774
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1943%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.1190%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24-0.1175%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.2935%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Cardinals 42
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Cardinals 25
Fumble lost1 play
Cardinals649ers0
Cardinals749ers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the 49ers 13
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 41
Cardinals1349ers0
Cardinals1449ers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the 49ers 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter37 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Cardinals 30
Cardinals1749ers0
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the 49ers 8
Cardinals1749ers6
Cardinals1749ers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Cardinals2349ers7
Cardinals2449ers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the 49ers 45
Punt5 plays
Cardinals3049ers7
Cardinals3149ers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the 49ers 21
Cardinals3149ers13
Cardinals3149ers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 7
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 30
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 47
4th quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Cardinals 34
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cardinals 15
Cardinals3149ers17
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 8
Punt17 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the 49ers 38
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 25
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the 49ers 24
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
Cardinals6
49ers0
