2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · Levi's Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -5.5 upsetO 44.5 ✓49ers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 1:11, SF +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:11ARI — SF ARI ball · 1st & 10ARI 63%

(1:11) (Shotgun) 13-C.Kirk pass deep right to 85-A.Wesley pushed ob at SF 1 for 33 yards (32-T.Wilson). Caught SF 1. 0-YAC Arizona challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:11SF +11% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 13-C.Kirk pass deep right to 85-A.Wesley pushed ob at SF 1 for 33 yards (32-T.Wilson). Caught SF 1. 0-YAC Arizona challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q1 · 3:00SF +8% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 6-J.Conner ran ob at ARI 33 for 21 yards (4-E.Moseley). Caught ARI 12. 21-YAC
Q2 · 12:34ARI +7% win prob(12:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to ARI 8 for 22 yards (9-I.Simmons). FUMBLES (9-I.Simmons), RECOVERED by ARI-58-J.Hicks at ARI 7. 58-J.Hicks to ARI 7 for no gain (44-K.Juszczyk). Caught ARI 13. 5-YAC
Q1 · 10:37ARI +7% win prob(10:37) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to 50 for 18 yards (7-B.Murphy). FUMBLES (7-B.Murphy), RECOVERED by ARI-58-J.Hicks at ARI 43. Caught SF 43. 7-YAC

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	49ers
Offensive plays	67	56
Total yards	438 (edge)	337
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.0
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	-0.11
Success rate	45% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	45%	82%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.59 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	20	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

28/40, 326 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.6 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Colt McCoyQB

22/26, 249 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

13.3 expected points added · +12.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

21 att, 96 yds, 2 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Eno BenjaminRB

9 att, 39 yds, 1 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

6/8 for 101 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

6/6 for 91 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 26	8	28	2:25	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 12	6	13	1:58	Punt
3	SF	SF 32	1	18	0:08	Fumble
4	ARI	ARI 43	10	57	4:21	Touchdown
5	SF	SF 25	6	11	1:30	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 20	9	75	3:59	Touchdown
7	SF	SF 24	7	63	3:14	Fumble
8	ARI	ARI 7	14	89	8:23	Turnover on downs
9	SF	SF 25	11	59	3:46	Touchdown
10	ARI	ARI 26	2	0	0:16	End of half
11	ARI	ARI 28	5	72	1:27	Touchdown
12	SF	SF 25	5	-9	1:41	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 29	8	71	3:47	Touchdown
14	SF	SF 25	8	60	3:09	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 9	8	21	3:48	Punt
16	SF	SF 15	8	46	3:06	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 11	4	1	2:05	Punt
18	SF	ARI 36	7	38	2:34	Turnover on downs
19	ARI	ARI 29	11	30	4:51	Punt
20	SF	SF 20	3	5	0:29	Interception
21	ARI	SF 32	4	9	1:52	Turnover on downs
22	SF	SF 24	5	18	1:11	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 89 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Colt McCoy	22/26	249	1	0	2	13.3
Christian Kirk	1/1	33	0	0	0	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	21	96	4.6	2	-0.7
Eno Benjamin	9	39	4.3	1	-1.6
Colt McCoy	7	23	3.3	0	3.3
Chase Edmonds	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4
Chris Streveler	1	2	2.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	6	6	91	0	23%	6.2
James Conner	5	5	77	1	19%	8.4
Antoine Wesley	3	3	62	0	12%	4.8
Zach Ertz	3	5	27	0	19%	-1.1
Rondale Moore	5	5	25	0	19%	2.6
Darrell Daniels	1	2	0	0	8%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	4	3	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	2	5	0.0	1	1
Isaiah Simmons	6	0	0.0	0	0
Markus Golden	3	2	3.0	0	0
Jalen Thompson	2	3	0.0	0	0
Byron Murphy	1	3	0.0	0	0
Marco Wilson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Tanner Vallejo	3	0	0.0	0	1
Dennis Gardeck	2	1	0.0	0	0
Chandler Jones	1	2	1.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	28/40	326	2	1	5	5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	8	36	4.5	-0.2
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	3	3.0	-0.4
Jamycal Hasty	1	2	2.0	-0.3
Brandon Aiyuk	1	-2	-2.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	6	8	101	1	21%	0.8
Brandon Aiyuk	6	8	89	1	21%	5.2
Deebo Samuel	5	9	63	0	23%	-1.9
Elijah Mitchell	5	5	43	0	13%	1.8
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	14	0	5%	1.1
Jamycal Hasty	3	4	11	0	10%	-1.1
Mohamed Sanu	1	3	5	0	8%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	5	8	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	2	8	1.0	0
D.J. Jones	4	4	0.0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	3	5	0.0	1
Tavon Wilson	5	2	0.0	1
Emmanuel Moseley	3	3	0.0	0
Jordan Willis	1	3	0.0	0
Nick Bosa	3	1	0.0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	3	1	0.0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -5.5
Closing total: 44.5
ARI moneyline: +207
SF moneyline: -235

49ers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 48 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: ARI 10 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.