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Atlanta Falcons 27 at New Orleans Saints 25. Final.
Saints -7 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 9
Atlanta Falcons 27, Saints 25 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:01, 1st and 10, on Cordarrelle Patterson — 34.6 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
O 43 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:01, Falcons +34.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:01 · 1st and 10
Cordarrelle Patterson
Falcons
(1:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 84-C.Patterson pushed ob at NO 11 for 64 yards (43-M.Williams) [5-K.Alexander]. Pass 28, YAC 36 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
34.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kenny StillsSaintsQ4 2:46(2:46) 76-C.Throckmorton reported in as eligible. 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 12-K.Stills to ATL 21 for 22 yards (23-E.Harris). Pass 19, YAC 3
16.5pts
Younghoe KooFalconsQ4 0:03(:03) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
29.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.69 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 1 giveaway.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.07 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Falcons169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(1:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 84-C.Patterson pushed ob at NO 11 for 64 yards (43-M.Williams) [5-K.Alexander]. Pass 28, YAC 36 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was U
Swing −34.6 for SaintsExpected points −3.90 for SaintsThe model had Falcons 6 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:01NO +35% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 84-C.Patterson pushed ob at NO 11 for 64 yards (43-M.Williams) [5-K.Alexander]. Pass 28, YAC 36 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:03NO +29% win prob(:03) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
4th · 2:46NO +17% win prob(2:46) 76-C.Throckmorton reported in as eligible. 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 12-K.Stills to ATL 21 for 22 yards (23-E.Harris). Pass 19, YAC 3
4th · 10:57ATL +16% win prob(10:57) 15-T.Siemian at quarterback. (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian sacked at NO 44 for -9 yards (93-J.Vaughters). FUMBLES (93-J.Vaughters) [93-J.Vaughters], RECOVERED by ATL-55-S.Means at NO 38. 55-S.Means to NO 6 for 32 yards (10-T.Smith). ATL-55-S.Means was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
2nd · 0:09NO +11% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0
3rd · 8:11NO +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 29-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:31Younghoe Koo·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Harris+33–0
2nd0:09Olamide Zaccheaus·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+710–0
3rd9:40Brian Johnson·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+310–3
4th0:03Younghoe Koo·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+327–25
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categorySaints
Falcons3–4Saints
368Total yards376
6.7Yards per play5.3
38%Success rate44%
42%Third-down rate30%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays5
16First downs25
2Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Falcons: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.07Saints: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.55Falcons: +0.55 expected points added per play
−0.07Saints: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.69Falcons: −0.69 expected points added per play
−0.07Saints: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 55 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Saints’s 71 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Saints 4.
NoteSaints outgained Falcons 376-368 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 9.1% in week 8 against 25.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Saints25.7%
leaned — got home · +8.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.7%, 8.3 points above their season mean of 17.4% and 1.3 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%59 snaps
77Jalen MayfieldG · Every snap100%59 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%59 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%59 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Every snap100%59 snaps
14Russell GageWR · Full-time81%48 snaps
4Tajae SharpeWR · Full-time80%47 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation75%44 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Heavy rotation56%33 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass+32% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 84-C.Patterson pushed ob at NO 11 for 64 yards (43-M.Williams) [5-K.Alexander]. Pass 28, YAC 36 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 1:01 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at ATL 25 · gained 64 · +3.90 EP · +31.9% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 92 yards from the ATL 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
37%
Yards
742
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1371%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.4170%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2764%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.1970%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.3956%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.0717%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.7050%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5-1.56100%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 36
Drive ended8 plays, from the Saints 9 to the Saints 40
Falcons3Saints0
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Saints 14
The period ended10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 28
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Falcons 35
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Falcons 45
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Falcons 41
Falcons9Saints0
Falcons10Saints0
Touchdown19 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Saints 3
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Falcons10Saints3
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Falcons 17
Falcons16Saints3
Falcons17Saints3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Saints 1
The period ended13 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Falcons 34
4th quarter64 plays
Falcons17Saints6
Field goal2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 39
Offense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Falcons 42
Falcons23Saints6
Falcons24Saints6
Touchdown3 plays
Falcons24Saints12
Falcons24Saints13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Falcons 5
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 26
Falcons24Saints19
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Falcons 2
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 30
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Falcons24Saints25
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 43 to the Falcons 8
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Falcons27Saints25
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Falconscategory by categorySaints
Falcons3
Saints0
