2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Atlanta FalconsWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -7 upsetO 43 ✓DomeSaints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:01, NO +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:01ATL — NO ATL ball · 1st & 10NO 61%

(1:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 84-C.Patterson pushed ob at NO 11 for 64 yards (43-M.Williams) [5-K.Alexander]. Pass 28, YAC 36 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was U

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:01NO +35% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 84-C.Patterson pushed ob at NO 11 for 64 yards (43-M.Williams) [5-K.Alexander]. Pass 28, YAC 36 The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 0:03NO +29% win prob(:03) 7-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
Q4 · 2:46NO +17% win prob(2:46) 76-C.Throckmorton reported in as eligible. 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 12-K.Stills to ATL 21 for 22 yards (23-E.Harris). Pass 19, YAC 3
Q4 · 10:57ATL +16% win prob(10:57) 15-T.Siemian at quarterback. (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian sacked at NO 44 for -9 yards (93-J.Vaughters). FUMBLES (93-J.Vaughters) [93-J.Vaughters], RECOVERED by ATL-55-S.Means at NO 38. 55-S.Means to NO 6 for 32 yards (10-T.Smith). ATL-55-S.Means was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Saints
Offensive plays	55	71
Total yards	368	376 (edge)
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	38%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.55 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.69	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	16	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Saints outgained Falcons 376–368 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

23/30, 343 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.3 expected points added · +14.8% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Trevor SiemianQB

25/41, 249 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-5.9 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

13 att, 50 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

9 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

6/6 for 126 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Russell GageWR

7/8 for 64 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	8	46	3:26	Punt
2	NO	NO 9	8	30	3:23	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 22	8	64	3:45	Turnover on downs
4	NO	NO 25	11	50	5:56	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 20	4	4	2:02	Punt
6	NO	NO 35	6	29	2:44	Turnover on downs
7	ATL	ATL 36	4	8	1:20	Turnover on downs
8	NO	ATL 44	4	8	1:48	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 8	16	88	5:30	Touchdown
10	NO	—	1	0	0:06	End of half
11	NO	NO 23	13	60	5:24	Turnover on downs
12	ATL	ATL 19	9	81	4:23	Touchdown
13	NO	NO 21	12	60	5:24	Turnover on downs
14	ATL	ATL 23	6	16	1:45	Punt
15	NO	NO 26	4	17	2:18	Fumble
16	ATL	NO 6	2	6	0:07	Touchdown
17	NO	NO 34	10	66	2:42	Touchdown
18	ATL	ATL 25	5	1	2:31	Punt
19	NO	NO 46	7	13	0:51	Touchdown
20	ATL	ATL 25	5	-12	1:49	Punt
21	NO	ATL 43	6	43	1:45	Touchdown
22	ATL	ATL 25	6	66	1:01	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 88 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	23/30	343	2	0	2	17.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	9	13	1.4	0	-8.1
Cordarrelle Patterson	9	10	1.1	0	-4.5
Matt Ryan	5	8	1.6	1	1.0
Feleipe Franks	2	3	1.5	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	6	6	126	0	20%	10.0
Russell Gage	7	8	64	0	27%	0.1
Kyle Pitts	3	7	62	0	23%	1.8
Olamide Zaccheaus	3	3	58	2	10%	7.8
Hayden Hurst	2	3	16	0	10%	-0.8
Tajae Sharpe	1	1	12	0	3%	0.8
Mike Davis	1	2	5	0	7%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Deion Jones	6	4	2
Foyesade Oluokun	3	6	0
Erik Harris	7	1	0
Fabian Moreau	4	1	2
A.J. Terrell	4	1	3
Brandon Copeland	4	0	1
Grady Jarrett	4	0	1
Anthony Rush	1	2	0
Marlon Davidson	1	1	0
Adetokunbo Ogundeji	1	1	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Siemian	25/41	249	2	0	1	-5.9
Taysom Hill	2/2	33	0	0	0	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	13	50	3.8	1	-2.0
Mark Ingram	9	43	4.8	0	-0.9
Alex Armah	2	12	6.0	0	0.2
Taysom Hill	1	4	4.0	0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alvin Kamara	4	7	54	0	17%	2.9
Tre'Quan Smith	3	4	53	0	10%	3.9
Deonte Harty	6	8	52	0	19%	3.3
Adam Trautman	4	7	47	0	17%	-2.4
Kenny Stills	2	5	30	1	12%	0.9
Marquez Callaway	3	6	25	1	14%	-1.1
Mark Ingram	5	5	21	0	12%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
David Onyemata	2	5	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	6	1	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	2	0.0	0
Marcus Davenport	3	3	1.0	0
Demario Davis	2	4	0.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	1	4	0.0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	3	1.0	0
Shy Tuttle	1	2	0.0	0
P.J. Williams	2	1	0.0	1
Tanoh Kpassagnon	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -7
Closing total: 43
ATL moneyline: +240
NO moneyline: -277

Saints closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 52 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: ATL 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.