2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

BUF -14.5 upsetU 48 ✓16 mph windBills closed -14.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Jacksonville Jaguars 9–6 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:41, BUF +28% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:41BUF — JAX BUF ball · 3rd & 2BUF 59%

(5:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to JAX 38 for -1 yards (91-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (91-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at JAX 37.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:41BUF +28% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to JAX 38 for -1 yards (91-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (91-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at JAX 37.
Q4 · 1:11BUF +24% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs.
Q4 · 1:18BUF +22% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at JAX 48 for -9 yards (91-D.Smoot).
Q4 · 7:42JAX +16% win prob(7:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs to JAX 45 for 28 yards (32-T.Campbell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Jaguars
Offensive plays	65	56
Total yards	301 (edge)	219
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.17 (edge)	-0.21
Success rate	40% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	83%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.69	-0.37 (edge)
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	2/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bills outgained Jaguars 301–219 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

31/47, 264 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-8.7 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

15/26, 118 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.9 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Carlos HydeRB

21 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-10.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

5 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

6/8 for 85 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Emmanuel SandersWR

4/8 for 65 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	13	54	6:03	Turnover on downs
2	BUF	BUF 46	13	48	5:03	Turnover on downs
3	JAX	JAX 25	5	-7	1:31	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 29	12	63	6:24	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 25	11	48	5:29	Turnover on downs
6	BUF	BUF 21	7	12	2:10	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 22	6	38	1:54	Fumble
8	BUF	BUF 20	6	9	1:23	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 30	1	0	0:03	End of half
10	BUF	BUF 30	10	45	4:54	Interception
11	JAX	JAX 27	8	34	4:25	Turnover on downs
12	BUF	BUF 32	6	23	3:46	Interception
13	JAX	BUF 30	10	28	4:45	Turnover on downs
14	BUF	BUF 22	7	35	2:14	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 20	4	8	1:39	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 29	5	34	2:47	Fumble
17	JAX	JAX 37	6	10	2:31	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 20	8	32	1:57	Turnover on downs
19	JAX	JAX 48	4	6	1:02	Punt

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 63 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	31/47	264	0	2	4	-8.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	5	50	10.0	0.6
Devin Singletary	6	16	2.7	-1.2
Zack Moss	3	6	2.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	8	85	18%	1.7
Emmanuel Sanders	4	8	65	18%	3.2
Devin Singletary	7	8	43	18%	-2.8
Cole Beasley	8	11	33	24%	-5.1
Zack Moss	2	4	18	9%	0.1
Isaiah McKenzie	2	2	10	4%	1.1
Tommy Sweeney	2	2	10	4%	0.1
Gabe Davis	0	2	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	3	5	0.0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	4	0.5	1
Siran Neal	3	2	0.0	0
Levi Wallace	4	1	0.0	1
Harrison Phillips	2	3	0.0	0
Matt Milano	2	2	0.0	0
Jordan Poyer	3	1	0.0	0
Star Lotulelei	3	1	0.0	0
Micah Hyde	2	1	0.0	1
Taron Johnson	2	0	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	15/26	118	0	0	2	-3.9
C.J. Beathard	2/2	33	0	0	0	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Carlos Hyde	21	67	3.2	-10.5
Jamal Agnew	1	11	11.0	1.1
Trevor Lawrence	3	4	1.3	0.7
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	1.0	0.4
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	-4	-4.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dan Arnold	4	7	60	26%	0.9
Jamal Agnew	3	5	27	19%	0.8
Laviska Shenault Jr.	4	4	24	15%	3.7
Marvin Jones	3	5	21	19%	-1.5
Chris Manhertz	1	1	9	4%	0.6
Carlos Hyde	1	2	6	7%	-0.6
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	4	4%	0.1
Laquon Treadwell	0	1	0	4%	-0.6
Luke Farrell	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rudy Ford	7	1	0.0	1	3
Damien Wilson	5	2	0.0	0	1
Josh Hines-Allen	7	0	1.0	1	1
Myles Jack	4	2	0.0	0	0
Tyson Campbell	4	1	0.0	0	0
Dawuane Smoot	3	0	1.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nevin Lawson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	2	0	0.0	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -14.5
Closing total: 48
BUF moneyline: -1101
JAX moneyline: +776

Bills closed -14.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 15 — under by 33.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: BUF 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Urban Meyer

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.