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live · 12s tick · as of 10:33 PM ET · 14 min ago · 1 live · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 9
It turned at Q4 5:41, 3rd and 2, on Josh Allen — 28.5 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 9–6 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:41, Jaguars +28.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:41 · 3rd and 2
Josh Allen
Jaguars
(5:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to JAX 38 for -1 yards (91-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (91-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at JAX 37.
28.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 15 on third down, against Jaguars at 2 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — -0.37 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.69 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 29.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 46 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(5:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to JAX 38 for -1 yards (91-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (91-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at JAX 37.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matthew Wright's 21-yard field goal with 12:13 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Matthew Wright21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+36–95 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryJaguars
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 65 snaps at a 83% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 56 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Bills 1, Jaguars 3.
Bills outgained Jaguars 301-219 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's early-down pass rate, 81.6%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
BUF's pass rate over expected, +11.6 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
JAX's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.7% in week 8 against 43.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Bills11.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.2 vs their 4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 65 snaps
Jaguars-3.7 ptsright on their number · −1.7 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 90%
Tendencies room →Bills81.6%leaned — passed early · +21.5 vs their 60.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+1.81× that swing) · 49 early downs
Jaguars43.9%leaned — ran early · −15.7 vs their 59.6%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
Jaguars50.0%inside their normal wobble · +14.5 vs their 35.5%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Bills13.3%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Jaguars14.8%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
BUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 81.6%, 21.5 points above their season mean of 60.2% and 1.8 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
31/47, 264 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-8.7 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
15/26, 118 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.9 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected
Receiving · BUF
4/8 for 65 yds, 0 TD
18% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Stefon Diggs banked 1.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.5 | +1.5 | 88% | 85% | 18% | 25% | 6/8, 85 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 12.9 | −1.3 | 72% | 69% | 18% | 4% | 6 car, 16 yd · 7/8, 43 yd |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | −8.0 | 67% | 57% | 24% | 22% | 8/11, 33 yd |
| Emmanuel SandersWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | −4.6 | 99% | 94% | 18% | 37% | 4/8, 65 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | −2.4 | 57% | 80% | 26% | 25% | 4/7, 60 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 9.6 | −12.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/47, 264 yd, 2 INT · 5 car, 50 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Featured Receiver | 6.8 | −1.3 | 54% | 73% | 19% | 13% | 1 car, 11 yd · 3/5, 27 yd |
| Carlos HydeRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.3 | −9.8 | 79% | 63% | 7% | 13% | 21 car, 67 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −1.0 | 79% | 87% | 15% | 3% | 1 car, -4 yd · 4/4, 24 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 5.1 | −7.9 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 15/26, 118 yd · 3 car, 4 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −4.4 | 84% | 97% | 19% | 26% | 3/5, 21 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 4.4 | −7.9 | 28% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 3 car, 6 yd · 2/4, 18 yd |
| Tommy SweeneyTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.1 | 87% | 78% | 4% | 2% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | 0.0 | 28% | 33% | 4% | 2% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 44% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 1.5 | −0.5 | 13% | 20% | 4% | 2% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| C.J. BeathardQB | 1.3 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Gabe DavisWR | 0.0 | −2.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 48% | 20% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 31% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to JAX 38 for -1 yards (91-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (91-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Allen at JAX 37.
Q4 5:41 · Bills · 3rd & 2 at JAX 37 · gained nothing · -4.61 EP · −23.8% win probability
156 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 58 yards from the JAX 22 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills0
Jaguars3Bills3Jaguars3Bills6Jaguars3Bills6Jaguars6Bills6Jaguars9Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 31/47 | 264 | 0 | 2 | 4 | −8.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 | 18% | +1.7 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 8 | 65 | 0 | 18% | +3.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremaine Edmunds | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Siran Neal | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 15/26 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −3.9 |
| C.J. Beathard | 2/2 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.8 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_09_BUF_JAX
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -14.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 15 — under by 33.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.8 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 18% | −2.8 |
| Cole Beasley | 8 | 11 | 33 | 0 | 24% | −5.1 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Harrison Phillips | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Star Lotulelei | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 | −10.5 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 26% | +0.9 |
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 19% | +0.8 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 15% | +3.7 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 19% | −1.5 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.6 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Ford | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Damien Wilson | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 7 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Myles Jack | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawuane Smoot | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevin Lawson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
