For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
DYNATYZE
Loading
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
Chicago Bears 27 at Pittsburgh Steelers 29. Final.
Steelers -7 no coverO 40 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 9
Pittsburgh Steelers 29, Bears 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 2nd and 10, on Cairo Santos — 21.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Steelers closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Steelers +21.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 2nd and 10
Cairo Santos
Steelers
(:02) 2-C.Santos 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
21.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBearsQ4 6:47(6:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to PIT 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 29 for 9 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe). FUMBLES (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at PIT 25. 36-D.Houston-Carson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.9pts
Allen RobinsonBearsQ4 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at PIT 16 for 39 yards (35-A.Maulet).
16.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bears at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bears owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Bears176 of 187 plays carry both curves
(:02) 2-C.Santos 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Swing +21.6 for SteelersExpected points +0.84 for SteelersThe model had Bears 10 points higher than the market did.play 186
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02CHI +22% win prob(:02) 2-C.Santos 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
4th · 2:00PIT +16% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at PIT 16 for 39 yards (35-A.Maulet).
4th · 6:47PIT +14% win prob(6:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to PIT 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 29 for 9 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe). FUMBLES (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at PIT 25. 36-D.Houston-Carson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:07PIT +13% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 18-D.Johnson to CHI 32 for 22 yards (37-T.Tabor). Penalty on CHI-99-T.Gipson, Defensive Offside, declined.
4th · 1:52PIT +13% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 11-D.Mooney for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:30PIT +10% win prob(:30) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 40-yard field goal with 0:30 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:30Chris Boswell·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+327–29
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categorySteelers
Bears6–3Steelers
414Total yards281
7.1Yards per play4.4
45%Success rate38%
33%Third-down rate35%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays8
18First downs16
3Sacks taken4
2Turnovers0
The read
Bears ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Bears: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.02Steelers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Bears: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.13Steelers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Bears: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 58 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Steelers’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Bears 4, Steelers 3.
NoteBears outgained Steelers 414-281 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 21.6%, is past their previous high of 19.4% in week 6 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Steelers21.6%
leaned — got home · +6.2 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 59.3 points below their season mean of 59.3% and 1.6 times their own 37.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Cairo Santos−32% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 2-C.Santos 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 0:02 · Bears · 2nd & 10 at PIT 47 · gained nothing · -0.84 EP · −31.7% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 89 yards from the CHI 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
694
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0459%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0667%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0233%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2245%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.4417%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 4 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Bears 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears0Steelers6
Bears0Steelers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Bears 10
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 15
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Bears 47
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 43
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Bears 27
2nd quarter47 plays
Bears0Steelers13
Bears0Steelers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 32
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 20
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Steelers 25
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Steelers 18
Bears3Steelers14
Field goal16 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Steelers 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Bears 48
Bears6Steelers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 7 to the Steelers 1
Bears6Steelers20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bears 10
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Steelers 45
4th quarter66 plays
Bears12Steelers20
Bears13Steelers20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Steelers 15
Bears13Steelers23
Field goal6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bears 36
Fumble lost1 play
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bears 31
Bears19Steelers23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 25
Bears20Steelers23
Bears20Steelers26
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bears 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bears26Steelers26
Bears27Steelers26
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Steelers 16
Bears27Steelers29
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bears 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Steelers 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Bearscategory by categorySteelers
Bears0
Steelers6
