2021 Week 9 · Mon, Nov 8, 2021 · Heinz Field

Chicago Bears

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -7 no coverO 40 ✓Steelers closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, CHI +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:02CHI — PIT CHI ball · 2nd & 10PIT 78%

(:02) 2-C.Santos 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:02CHI +22% win prob(:02) 2-C.Santos 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 · 2:00PIT +16% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at PIT 16 for 39 yards (35-A.Maulet).
Q4 · 6:47PIT +14% win prob(6:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to PIT 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 29 for 9 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe). FUMBLES (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at PIT 25. 36-D.Houston-Carson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:07PIT +13% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 18-D.Johnson to CHI 32 for 22 yards (37-T.Tabor). Penalty on CHI-99-T.Gipson, Defensive Offside, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Steelers
Offensive plays	58	64
Total yards	414 (edge)	281
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	45% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	64%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	4/12	6/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Bears outgained Steelers 414–281 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

17/29, 291 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.5 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

21/30, 205 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

13 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

22 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

6/8 for 87 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

4/6 for 68 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 22	5	8	1:58	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 41	7	54	3:20	Touchdown
3	CHI	CHI 11	5	14	2:02	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 42	7	8	3:11	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 12	5	30	2:26	Interception
6	PIT	CHI 36	10	31	3:41	Touchdown
7	CHI	CHI 25	5	7	1:33	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 17	5	12	2:37	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 48	5	17	2:28	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 9	4	9	1:57	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 36	12	51	4:32	Turnover on downs
12	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
13	PIT	PIT 30	5	7	2:18	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 7	10	104	4:59	Turnover on downs
15	PIT	PIT 25	11	75	5:35	Touchdown
16	CHI	CHI 18	8	82	2:51	Touchdown
17	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	2:23	Turnover on downs
18	CHI	—	1	0	0:07	Fumble
19	PIT	CHI 42	7	-2	3:49	Punt
20	CHI	CHI 20	4	3	1:27	Defensive touchdown
21	PIT	PIT 25	12	26	3:39	Turnover on downs
22	CHI	CHI 25	9	75	1:06	Touchdown
23	PIT	PIT 25	8	52	1:20	Turnover on downs
24	CHI	CHI 25	6	23	0:26	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 104 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	17/29	291	1	1	3	4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	13	63	4.8	0	0.6
Justin Fields	8	45	5.6	0	0.9
Darnell Mooney	1	15	15.0	1	2.0
Khalil Herbert	4	13	3.3	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Kmet	6	8	87	0	28%	3.3
Allen Robinson	4	6	68	0	21%	3.8
Marquise Goodwin	1	4	50	0	14%	2.1
Darnell Mooney	3	6	41	1	21%	-1.4
Jimmy Graham	1	3	28	0	10%	1.4
David Montgomery	2	2	17	0	7%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	4	6	1.0	0
Duke Shelley	7	0	0.0	1
DeAndre Houston-Carson	2	4	0.0	0
Danny Trevathan	2	4	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	3	1	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	2	2	0.0	0
Cassius Marsh	2	2	1.0	0
Eddie Goldman	2	1	0.0	0
Trevis Gipson	2	1	0.0	0
Akiem Hicks	3	0	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	21/30	205	2	0	4	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	22	62	2.8	1	-4.2
James Washington	2	13	6.5	0	0.6
Chase Claypool	2	13	6.5	0	0.9
Diontae Johnson	2	11	5.5	0	0.8
Benny Snell	2	6	3.0	0	-0.7
Ben Roethlisberger	2	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	5	6	56	0	22%	1.7
Pat Freiermuth	5	6	43	2	22%	6.5
James Washington	1	3	42	0	11%	-0.3
Chase Claypool	3	5	30	0	19%	1.0
Najee Harris	3	3	16	0	11%	0.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	12	0	4%	0.7
Derek Watt	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.3
Kalen Ballage	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.6
Kevin Rader	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	8	0	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	4	3	3.0	1
Joe Schobert	2	3	0.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	4	0	0.0	0
Arthur Maulet	4	0	0.0	0
Devin Bush	2	1	0.0	1
Taco Charlton	2	1	0.0	0
Cameron Sutton	3	0	0.0	0
Henry Mondeaux	1	1	0.0	0
Justin Layne	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -7
Closing total: 40
CHI moneyline: +263
PIT moneyline: -306

Steelers closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40; the game landed 56 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: CHI 8 days · PIT 8 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Mike Tomlin