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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland41
BY 25final margin
BengalsCincinnati16
Cleveland Browns 41 at Cincinnati Bengals 16. Final.
Bengals -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 9
Cleveland Browns 41, Bengals 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:58, 3rd and 3, on Denzel Ward — 30.9 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:58 · 3rd and 3
Denzel Ward
Browns
(8:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 1. 21-D.Ward for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 47.5 ✓
Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 41–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:58, Browns +30.9% win probability on one snap.
30.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Donovan Peoples-JonesBrownsQ2 10:18(10:18) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Hill].
8.1pts
Ja'Marr ChaseBrownsQ2 7:39(7:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to CIN 44 for 5 yards (43-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (43-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by CLE-38-A.Green at CIN 46. 38-A.Green pushed ob at CIN 30 for 16 yards (67-Q.Spain).
9.4pts
What separated them
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 3 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Browns157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(8:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 1. 21-D.Ward for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −30.9 for BengalsExpected points −11.93 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:58CLE +31% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 1. 21-D.Ward for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:39CLE +9% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to CIN 44 for 5 yards (43-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (43-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by CLE-38-A.Green at CIN 46. 38-A.Green pushed ob at CIN 30 for 16 yards (67-Q.Spain).
2nd · 10:18CIN +8% win prob(10:18) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Hill].
2nd · 10:25CLE +7% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 83-T.Boyd.
3rd · 8:10CIN +6% win prob(8:10) 24-N.Chubb left end for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:41CIN +6% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 34-S.Perine to CLE 20 for 9 yards (4-A.Walker).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Chubb's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 14:53 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Browns ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.31Browns: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.32Bengals: −0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Browns: +0.45 expected points added per play
−0.42Bengals: −0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Browns: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.11Bengals: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 46 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Bengals’s 71 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Browns 6, Bengals 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's sack or hit rate, 21.7%, is past their previous high of 15.4% in week 1 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 8.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +8.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bengals21.7%
leaned — got home · +7.9 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.7%, 7.9 points above their season mean of 13.8% and 1.6 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%48 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Every snap100%48 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%48 snaps
62Blake HanceG · Every snap100%48 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%48 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Full-time94%45 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Heavy rotation73%35 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation73%35 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Heavy rotation67%32 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation60%29 snaps
10Anthony SchwartzWR · Heavy rotation58%28 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation56%27 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Heavy rotation52%25 snaps
30D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Rotational33%16 snaps
25Demetric FeltonRB · Situational13%6 snaps
31Andy JanovichFB · Situational8%4 snaps
5Case KeenumQB · Situational6%3 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Situational6%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Herb MillerCBJoe JacksonDETommy TogiaiDTAndrew BillingsDTHjalte FroholdtGMiller ForristallTEOdell BeckhamWR
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%75 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Every snap100%75 snaps
77Hakeem AdenijiG · Every snap100%75 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time95%71 snaps
66Trey HopkinsC · Full-time92%69 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Full-time92%69 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation79%59 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation76%57 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation64%48 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation63%47 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational33%25 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Situational19%14 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational13%10 snaps
63Trey HillC · Situational8%6 snaps
8Brandon AllenQB · Situational8%6 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational4%3 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Situational3%2 snaps
75Isaiah PrinceT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Vernon HargreavesCBCameron SampleDEFred JohnsonTAuden TateWRTrenton IrwinWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass−35% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 1. 21-D.Ward for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:58 · Bengals · 3rd & goal at CLE 3 · gained nothing · -11.93 EP · −35.2% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 75 yards from the CIN 22 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
39%
Yards
709
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.4672%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.1169%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14+0.7614%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3442%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0873%
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Browns6Bengals0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Browns 3
Browns7Bengals0
Browns7Bengals6
Browns7Bengals7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 11
The period ended10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 13
2nd quarter44 plays
Browns13Bengals7
Browns14Bengals7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Bengals 1
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Browns 40
Browns20Bengals7
Browns21Bengals7
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bengals 39
Browns24Bengals7
Field goal6 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 4
Browns24Bengals10
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Browns 9
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 40
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the Bengals 33
Browns30Bengals10
Browns31Bengals10
Touchdown4 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
Browns34Bengals10
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 31
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Browns 23
4th quarter44 plays
Browns34Bengals16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Browns 2
No good10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 27
Turnover on downs5 plays
Browns40Bengals16
Browns41Bengals16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 3
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 49
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 27
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
