2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -2.5 upsetO 47.5 ✓Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 41–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:58, CLE +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:58CLE — CIN CIN ball · 3rd & 3CIN 66%

(8:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 1. 21-D.Ward for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:58CLE +31% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 1. 21-D.Ward for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:39CLE +9% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to CIN 44 for 5 yards (43-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (43-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by CLE-38-A.Green at CIN 46. 38-A.Green pushed ob at CIN 30 for 16 yards (67-Q.Spain).
Q2 · 10:18CIN +8% win prob(10:18) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Hill].
Q2 · 10:25CLE +7% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 83-T.Boyd.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Bengals
Offensive plays	46	71
Total yards	361 (edge)	348
Yards per play	7.8 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.31 (edge)	-0.32
Success rate	39%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45 (edge)	-0.42
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	3/9 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	13	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.32.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

28/40, 282 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-14.3 expected points added · +9.3% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

14/21, 218 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.4 expected points added · +14.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

14 att, 137 yds, 2 TD

9.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

13 att, 64 yds, 2 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Donovan Peoples-JonesWR

2/3 for 86 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

6/8 for 78 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 22	12	71	6:17	Defensive touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 25	11	70	4:33	Touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 25	11	74	4:25	Touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 26	9	34	4:27	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 40	2	60	0:08	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 18	6	26	2:39	Fumble
7	CLE	CIN 30	6	26	3:21	Turnover on downs
8	CIN	CIN 23	11	48	4:08	Turnover on downs
9	CLE	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
10	CLE	CLE 25	8	28	3:21	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 13	6	20	3:25	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 30	3	70	0:14	Touchdown
13	CIN	CIN 25	4	6	1:26	Interception
14	CLE	CIN 8	4	7	1:20	Turnover on downs
15	CIN	CIN 25	5	0	1:55	Punt
16	CLE	CLE 30	4	-4	2:12	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 40	8	45	2:16	Touchdown
18	CLE	CLE 25	10	47	4:47	Turnover on downs
19	CIN	CIN 35	4	6	2:05	Turnover on downs
20	CLE	CIN 30	7	40	2:32	Touchdown
21	CIN	CIN 25	6	11	1:08	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 19	4	13	2:16	Punt
23	CIN	CIN 35	2	11	1:03	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 74 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	14/21	218	2	0	2	10.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	14	137	9.8	2	9.4
D'Ernest Johnson	8	16	2.0	0	-3.0
Jarvis Landry	1	0	0.0	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Donovan Peoples-Jones	2	3	86	1	16%	7.9
Nick Chubb	2	2	26	0	11%	1.7
Harrison Bryant	2	2	26	0	11%	1.3
Demetric Felton	1	1	22	0	5%	2.6
David Njoku	1	3	18	1	16%	2.9
Anthony Schwartz	1	1	15	0	5%	1.3
Austin Hooper	2	2	14	0	11%	0.3
Jarvis Landry	3	5	11	0	26%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Walker	10	2	1.0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	3	4	0.0	0	0
Troy Hill	6	0	2.0	0	0
Greg Newsome	5	0	0.0	0	3
Elijah Lee	3	1	0.0	0	0
Malik McDowell	2	2	0.0	0	0
Grant Delpit	3	1	0.0	0	1
John Johnson	3	0	0.0	1	1
A.J. Green	1	2	0.0	0	1
Sheldon Day	0	2	0.5	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	28/40	282	0	2	5	-14.3
Brandon Allen	1/2	6	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	13	64	4.9	2	0.7
Samaje Perine	5	20	4.0	0	0.0
Joe Burrow	2	1	0.5	0	-1.1
Brandon Allen	1	0	0.0	0	-1.5
Ja'Marr Chase	2	0	0.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	6	8	78	20%	3.8
Ja'Marr Chase	6	13	49	32%	-23.1
Joe Mixon	5	5	46	12%	3.4
Drew Sample	3	3	36	7%	2.6
C.J. Uzomah	4	5	24	12%	-0.7
Samaje Perine	2	3	17	7%	-0.3
Mike Thomas	1	1	16	2%	1.4
Tyler Boyd	1	2	11	5%	-2.7
Chris Evans	1	1	11	2%	1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Germaine Pratt	5	1	0.0
Logan Wilson	2	4	0.0
B.J. Hill	2	3	0.0
Jessie Bates	3	1	0.0
Sam Hubbard	3	1	1.0
Vonn Bell	1	3	0.0
Eli Apple	3	0	0.0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	1	0.0
Mike Hilton	2	0	0.0
Stanley Morgan	1	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
CLE moneyline: +117
CIN moneyline: -129

Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 57 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: CLE 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.