2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · AT&T Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

Dallas Cowboys

DAL -10.5 upsetU 50 ✓DomeCowboys closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 30–16. Biggest swing: Q1 12:08, DAL +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:08DEN — DAL DEN ball · 4th & 20DAL 86%

(12:08) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-C.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at DAL 20, recovered by DAL-24-K.Joseph at DAL 15. 24-K.Joseph to DAL 22 for 7 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:08DAL +12% win prob(12:08) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-C.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at DAL 20, recovered by DAL-24-K.Joseph at DAL 15. 24-K.Joseph to DAL 22 for 7 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).
Q1 · 1:52DAL +11% win prob(1:52) 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:54DAL +9% win prob(5:54) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy pushed ob at DAL 30 for 25 yards (26-J.Lewis).
Q2 · 1:48DAL +7% win prob(1:48) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to DEN 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 22 for 1 yard (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 22.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Cowboys
Offensive plays	72	59
Total yards	411 (edge)	294
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	44% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	46%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.07
Third downs	8/15 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	13 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

19/28, 249 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.1 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

19/39, 232 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -14.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

17 att, 111 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

21 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

4/5 for 85 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

6/8 for 69 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DEN 47	5	8	1:26	Turnover on downs
2	DEN	DEN 39	4	-10	1:39	Punt
3	DAL	DAL 22	9	53	3:48	Turnover on downs
4	DEN	DEN 20	12	77	6:19	Touchdown
5	DAL	DAL 25	6	20	1:48	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 20	7	80	2:47	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 25	6	20	1:25	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 20	11	55	7:07	Turnover on downs
9	DAL	DAL 25	7	8	2:02	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 12	6	25	1:39	End of half
11	DEN	DEN 21	5	-4	2:17	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 19	10	72	4:35	Turnover on downs
13	DAL	DAL 31	5	9	1:21	Turnover on downs
14	DEN	DAL 40	4	5	2:04	Turnover on downs
15	DAL	DAL 43	4	4	0:55	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 15	14	94	7:30	Touchdown
17	DAL	DAL 25	5	23	1:31	Interception
18	DEN	DAL 39	5	15	3:15	Turnover on downs
19	DAL	DAL 25	11	82	2:24	Touchdown
20	DEN	DEN 22	5	2	1:05	Punt
21	DAL	DAL 35	12	67	2:08	Touchdown
22	DEN	DAL 41	3	0	0:55	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 94 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	19/28	249	1	0	4	9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Javonte Williams	17	111	6.5	0	2.4
Melvin Gordon	21	80	3.8	1	-1.0
Teddy Bridgewater	3	-1	-0.3	1	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tim Patrick	4	5	85	1	21%	10.2
Jerry Jeudy	6	8	69	0	33%	3.1
Kendall Hinton	1	1	40	0	4%	5.1
Albert Okwuegbunam	4	5	25	0	21%	-1.3
Melvin Gordon	2	2	15	0	8%	-0.4
Courtland Sutton	1	2	9	0	8%	0.9
Eric Saubert	1	1	6	0	4%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kareem Jackson	7	2	0.0	0	0
Baron Browning	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jonathon Cooper	3	1	2.0	0	0
Kenny Young	1	2	0.0	0	0
Caden Sterns	3	0	0.0	1	1
Patrick Surtain	2	1	0.0	0	1
Ronald Darby	1	2	0.0	0	1
Kyle Fuller	1	1	0.0	0	1
Shelby Harris	1	1	0.0	0	0
DeShawn Williams	1	1	0.0	0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	19/39	232	2	1	2	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	10	51	5.1	-1.2
Dak Prescott	2	16	8.0	1.0
Tony Pollard	4	11	2.8	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Schultz	4	5	54	0	13%	3.4
Amari Cooper	2	5	37	0	13%	-1.1
Malik Turner	5	7	33	2	18%	3.4
Tony Pollard	1	2	32	0	5%	1.7
Cedrick Wilson	2	5	28	0	13%	-3.7
Ezekiel Elliott	3	3	25	0	8%	2.0
CeeDee Lamb	2	9	23	0	23%	-8.3
Noah Brown	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.9
Sean McKeon	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	5	5	0.0	0
Micah Parsons	8	2	2.5	0
Jayron Kearse	5	4	0.0	1
Jourdan Lewis	5	2	0.5	0
Donovan Wilson	4	2	0.0	0
Keanu Neal	5	1	0.0	0
Anthony Brown	2	1	0.0	0
Carlos Watkins	2	1	1.0	0
Tarell Basham	1	1	0.0	0
Trevon Diggs	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -10.5
Closing total: 50
DEN moneyline: +378
DAL moneyline: -462

Cowboys closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50; the game landed 46 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: DEN 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Mike McCarthy