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Denver Broncos 30, Cowboys 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:08, 4th and 20 — 12.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:08 · 4th and 20
Unnamed on the sheet
Broncos
(12:08) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-C.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at DAL 20, recovered by DAL-24-K.Joseph at DAL 15. 24-K.Joseph to DAL 22 for 7 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).
Dome
Cowboys closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 30–16. Biggest swing: Q1 12:08, Broncos +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jerry JeudyBroncosQ1 5:54(5:54) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy pushed ob at DAL 30 for 25 yards (26-J.Lewis).
8.6pts
Melvin GordonBroncosQ1 1:52(1:52) 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 7 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Cowboys at 5 of 13 on third down.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Broncos167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(12:08) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-C.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at DAL 20, recovered by DAL-24-K.Joseph at DAL 15. 24-K.Joseph to DAL 22 for 7 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).
Swing −12.4 for CowboysExpected points −0.29 for CowboysThe model had Broncos 28 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:08DAL +12% win prob(12:08) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 1-C.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at DAL 20, recovered by DAL-24-K.Joseph at DAL 15. 24-K.Joseph to DAL 22 for 7 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer).
1st · 1:52DAL +11% win prob(1:52) 25-M.Gordon left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:54DAL +9% win prob(5:54) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy pushed ob at DAL 30 for 25 yards (26-J.Lewis).
2nd · 1:48DAL +7% win prob(1:48) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to DEN 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 22 for 1 yard (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 22.
1st · 8:12DEN +7% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 1-C.Wilson.
2nd · 12:21DAL +7% win prob(12:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 81-T.Patrick for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Melvin Gordon's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 1:52 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:52Melvin Gordon·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+66–0
4th6:36Brandon McManus·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+330–0
4th4:14Malik Turner·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point good+830–8
4th1:00Malik Turner·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point good+830–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryCowboys
Broncos7–1Cowboys
411Total yards294
5.7Yards per play5.0
44%Success rate39%
53%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
13Explosive plays7
22First downs15
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Broncos: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.16Cowboys: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Broncos: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.19Cowboys: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.07Cowboys: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 72 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 59 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Cowboys 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Cowboys15.2%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 34.6 points below their season mean of 34.6% and 1.4 times their own 24.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at DEN 28 for 32 yards (22-K.Jackson).
Q1 10:04 · Cowboys · 3rd & 2 at DAL 40 · gained 32 · +2.78 EP · +9.7% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 92 yards from the DEN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
39%
Yards
703
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1677%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3657%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR33-0.0636%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0230%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 38
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Broncos 20
Broncos6Cowboys0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Cowboys 1
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 45
2nd quarter43 plays
Broncos12Cowboys0
Broncos13Cowboys0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Cowboys 44
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 45
Broncos16Cowboys0
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Cowboys 29
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 44
The period ended11 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Cowboys 49
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 26
Broncos19Cowboys0
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Cowboys 9
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Cowboys 40
No good4 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 35
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the Cowboys 47
The period ended8 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Cowboys 49
4th quarter55 plays
Broncos25Cowboys0
Broncos27Cowboys0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the Cowboys 1
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 33
Broncos30Cowboys0
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Cowboys 24
Broncos30Cowboys6
Broncos30Cowboys8
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Broncos 5
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 25
Broncos30Cowboys14
Broncos30Cowboys16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Broncos 4
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -10.5
Closing total
50
Broncos moneyline
+378
Cowboys moneyline
-462
Cowboys closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50; the game landed 46 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Mike McCarthy
3rd · 12:51DAL +7% win prob(12:51) 6-S.Martin punts 2 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-N.Wright MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-50-J.Griffith at DEN 19.
2nd · 9:33DAL +6% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 41 for 19 yards (11-M.Parsons).
Broncoscategory by categoryCowboys
Broncos6
Cowboys0
