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2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay7
BY 6final margin
ChiefsKansas City13
Green Bay Packers 7 at Kansas City Chiefs 13. Final.
Chiefs -7 no coverU 48 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 9
Kansas City Chiefs 13, Packers 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:00, 4th and 5, on Allen Lazard — 6.7 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:00 · 4th and 5
Allen Lazard
Packers
(5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 13–7. Biggest swing: Q4 5:00, Packers +6.7% win probability on one snap.
6.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. DillonPackersQ1 3:04(3:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 28-A.Dillon to KC 24 for 15 yards (38-L.Sneed).
5.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsQ2 2:50(2:50) 5-T.Townsend punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. Kansas City challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 86-M.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-26-C.Lammons at GB 10.
6.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 5 of 14 on third down, against Packers at 2 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 1 giveaway.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — -0.00 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Packers owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Packers156 of 167 plays carry both curves
(5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −6.7 for ChiefsExpected points −4.62 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:00KC +7% win prob(5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:50KC +6% win prob(2:50) 5-T.Townsend punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. Kansas City challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 86-M.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-26-C.Lammons at GB 10.
1st · 3:04KC +5% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 28-A.Dillon to KC 24 for 15 yards (38-L.Sneed).
2nd · 15:00GB +5% win prob(15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 31-Da.Williams to KC 37 for -2 yards (26-D.Savage, 51-K.Barnes) [52-R.Gary].
4th · 4:11KC +4% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 41 for 22 yards (51-K.Barnes).
1st · 0:52GB +4% win prob(:52) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 1-yard touchdown catch with 6:00 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:00Travis Kelce·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
2nd1:54Harrison Butker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–10
2nd0:06Harrison Butker·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–13
4th5:00Allen Lazard·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+77–13
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryChiefs
Packers5–2Chiefs
301Total yards239
5.0Yards per play3.9
38%Success rate38%
17%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays3
17First downs13
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Packers: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.15Chiefs: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.00Packers: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.24Chiefs: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Packers: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.02Chiefs: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 60 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 61 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Packers 2, Chiefs 2.
NotePackers outgained Chiefs 301-239 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's pass rate over expected, −3.9 pts, is past their previous low of −1.7 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chiefs17.9%
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 48.8 points above their season mean of 51.2% and 1.7 times their own 28.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
70Royce NewmanT · Every snap100%63 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Billy TurnerT · Every snap100%63 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%63 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%63 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Full-time92%58 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time92%58 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Full-time84%53 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation54%34 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Townsend punts+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:50) 5-T.Townsend punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. Kansas City challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 86-M.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-26-C.Lammons at GB 10.
Q2 2:50 · Chiefs · 4th & 1 at KC 29 · gained nothing · +5.41 EP · +11.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 72 yards from the GB 4 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
36%
Yards
538
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1778%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.1129%
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR18+0.0683%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0844%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.2276%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 28
Packers0Chiefs6
Packers0Chiefs7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Packers 1
No good10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Chiefs 21
The period ended4 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 37
2nd quarter50 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
No good7 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Chiefs 19
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Chiefs 44
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 2 to the Packers 45
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 29
Packers0Chiefs10
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 1
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Chiefs 38
Packers0Chiefs13
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Packers 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 31
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Packers 17
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chiefs 30
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 43
Punt12 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Chiefs 48
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Intercepted14 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Chiefs 24
Punt4 plays
Packers6Chiefs13
Packers7Chiefs13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 47 to the Chiefs 20
The period ended15 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Packers 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -7
Closing total
48
Packers moneyline
+275
Chiefs moneyline
-322
Chiefs closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 20 — under by 28.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Packers 10 days · Chiefs 6 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Andy Reid
1st · 7:45KC +3% win prob(7:45) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams right end to GB 1 for 6 yards (29-R.Douglas; 31-A.Amos). KC-67-L.Niang was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
1st · 14:08GB +3% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 33-A.Jones.
