2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Green Bay Packers

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -7 no coverU 48 ✓Chiefs closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 13–7. Biggest swing: Q4 5:00, KC +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:00GB — KC GB ball · 4th & 5KC 97%

(5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:00KC +7% win prob(5:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-A.Lazard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:50KC +6% win prob(2:50) 5-T.Townsend punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. Kansas City challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-41-J.Winchester. 86-M.Taylor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-26-C.Lammons at GB 10.
Q1 · 3:04KC +5% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 28-A.Dillon to KC 24 for 15 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q2 · 15:00GB +5% win prob(15:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 31-Da.Williams to KC 37 for -2 yards (26-D.Savage, 51-K.Barnes) [52-R.Gary].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Chiefs
Offensive plays	60	61
Total yards	301 (edge)	239
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.15
Success rate	38% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	65%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00 (edge)	-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.02
Third downs	2/12	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Packers outgained Chiefs 301–239 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

19/34, 190 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.8 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

20/37, 166 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-9.0 expected points added · -11.4% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Darrel WilliamsRB

19 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

12 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

5/8 for 68 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Randall CobbWR

3/5 for 50 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 24	5	4	1:09	Punt
2	KC	KC 36	16	59	7:55	Touchdown
3	GB	GB 25	10	53	5:08	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 30	4	7	0:54	Turnover on downs
5	GB	KC 37	6	23	4:13	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 19	7	25	2:22	Punt
7	GB	GB 2	7	38	3:48	Punt
8	KC	KC 20	4	4	1:50	Punt
9	KC	GB 10	4	9	0:50	Turnover on downs
10	GB	GB 22	6	40	1:24	Turnover on downs
11	KC	KC 38	5	25	0:26	Turnover on downs
12	GB	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
13	KC	KC 25	5	0	1:30	Punt
14	GB	GB 12	4	5	1:19	Punt
15	KC	KC 23	4	7	0:47	Punt
16	GB	GB 15	7	16	4:40	Punt
17	KC	KC 9	11	54	5:55	Punt
18	GB	GB 8	14	69	6:54	Interception
19	KC	KC 5	4	-1	1:04	Punt
20	GB	GB 47	11	53	2:57	Touchdown
21	KC	KC 20	10	50	4:54	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 69 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jordan Love	19/34	190	1	1	1	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	12	53	4.4	1.1
A.J. Dillon	8	46	5.8	0.3
Jordan Love	5	23	4.6	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Randall Cobb	3	5	50	0	16%	2.0
A.J. Dillon	4	4	44	0	13%	3.0
Davante Adams	6	14	42	0	44%	-5.0
Allen Lazard	1	1	20	1	3%	4.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	2	19	0	6%	0.8
Josiah Deguara	2	2	16	0	6%	0.7
Aaron Jones	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.4
Dominique Dafney	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	-1	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Krys Barnes	7	2	0.0	0
Kevin King	4	3	0.0	1
De'Vondre Campbell	3	3	0.0	0
Chandon Sullivan	4	1	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	3	1	0.0	0
Tedarrell Slaton	3	1	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	2	2	0.0	0
Tyler Lancaster	2	1	0.0	0
Oren Burks	2	0	0.0	0
Rashan Gary	1	1	1.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	20/37	166	1	0	1	-9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrel Williams	19	70	3.7	1.2
Derrick Gore	3	13	4.3	-0.5
Patrick Mahomes	2	-2	-1.0	-1.7
Tyreek Hill	1	-4	-4.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	5	8	68	1	22%	2.2
Tyreek Hill	4	11	37	0	31%	-2.5
Jerick McKinnon	3	3	26	0	8%	1.7
Mecole Hardman	3	6	20	0	17%	-2.4
Darrel Williams	3	4	7	0	11%	-3.4
Derrick Gore	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
Demarcus Robinson	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4
Blake Bell	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Josh Gordon	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	2	5	0.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	5	2	0.0	0	1
L'Jarius Sneed	3	3	0.0	1	2
Nick Bolton	1	4	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	1	1.0	0	0
Rashad Fenton	3	1	0.0	0	0
Juan Thornhill	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tershawn Wharton	2	2	0.0	0	0
Chris Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7
Closing total: 48
GB moneyline: +275
KC moneyline: -322

Chiefs closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 20 — under by 28.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: GB 10 days · KC 6 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Andy Reid