2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium

Houston Texans

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -4 ✓U 45 ✓19 mph windDolphins closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.

Miami Dolphins 17–9. Biggest swing: Q2 5:43, MIA +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:43HOU — MIA HOU ball · 4th & 9MIA 70%

(5:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore). FUMBLES (33-A.Moore), RECOVERED by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis at MIA 23.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:43MIA +14% win prob(5:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore). FUMBLES (33-A.Moore), RECOVERED by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis at MIA 23.
Q1 · 10:46HOU +13% win prob(10:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland [29-Br.Jones] at MIA -7. Touchback.
Q2 · 0:59HOU +12% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at HOU 26. 55-J.Baker ran ob at HOU 26 for no gain. Penalty on HOU-72-G.Christian, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 7:57HOU +8% win prob(7:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett sacked at HOU 41 for -6 yards (54-J.Martin). FUMBLES (54-J.Martin) [54-J.Martin], RECOVERED by HOU-97-M.Collins at HOU 40.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Dolphins
Offensive plays	66	72
Total yards	272 (edge)	262
Yards per play	4.1 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	-0.31	-0.19 (edge)
Success rate	33%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16 (edge)	-0.51
Third downs	6/16	9/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	14	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	4 (edge)
Turnovers	5	4 (edge)

Texans outgained Dolphins 272–262 but lost the turnover battle 5–4. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Jacoby BrissettQB

26/43, 244 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-3.2 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Tyrod TaylorQB

24/43, 240 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-14.5 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

20 att, 34 yds, 1 TD

-10.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Phillip LindsayRB

8 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

8/10 for 83 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

6/14 for 56 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 23	5	0	0:48	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 28	8	56	3:32	Interception
3	MIA	MIA 20	13	75	6:03	Touchdown
4	HOU	HOU 25	5	3	0:50	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 29	2	0	0:15	Interception
6	HOU	HOU 31	7	17	2:59	Fumble
7	MIA	MIA 17	5	15	2:24	Fumble
8	HOU	MIA 33	7	20	3:21	Turnover on downs
9	MIA	MIA 25	5	-2	0:57	Punt
10	HOU	HOU 25	7	19	3:21	Punt
11	HOU	MIA 23	4	6	0:58	Turnover on downs
12	MIA	MIA 25	11	46	3:24	Turnover on downs
13	HOU	HOU 26	3	-8	0:15	Interception
14	MIA	HOU 26	5	26	0:24	Touchdown
15	HOU	HOU 25	2	8	0:29	End of half
16	HOU	HOU 25	6	10	1:56	Interception
17	MIA	HOU 49	3	6	1:25	Interception
18	HOU	HOU 44	4	8	1:20	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 8	15	47	8:07	Punt
20	HOU	HOU 7	14	92	5:40	Turnover on downs
21	MIA	MIA 32	9	28	3:40	Fumble
22	HOU	HOU 40	6	13	2:39	Punt
23	MIA	MIA 11	7	20	2:16	Punt
24	HOU	HOU 19	2	15	0:29	Fumble
25	MIA	HOU 34	4	1	2:01	Punt
26	HOU	HOU 2	4	13	0:27	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 92 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	24/43	240	0	3	5	-14.5
Danny Amendola	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	8	28	3.5	-0.1
Tyrod Taylor	3	23	7.7	0.2
David Johnson	4	11	2.8	-1.4
Rex Burkhead	2	9	4.5	-0.4
Scottie Phillips	1	2	2.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	6	14	56	35%	-6.3
Danny Amendola	3	7	49	18%	-2.9
Chris Conley	2	3	38	8%	3.6
David Johnson	3	5	29	13%	-2.4
Nico Collins	3	3	25	8%	2.3
Antony Auclair	2	2	23	5%	3.2
Brevin Jordan	2	2	9	5%	-0.2
Jordan Akins	2	3	7	8%	-3.1
Chris Moore	1	1	4	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Neville Hewitt	5	4	0.0	0	0
Eric Murray	5	3	0.0	1	1
Zach Cunningham	2	6	0.0	0	0
Tavierre Thomas	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	4	3	0.0	0	0
Desmond King	4	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Jenkins	2	2	1.5	0	0
Jake Martin	1	2	1.0	0	0
Roy Lopez	2	1	1.0	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	2	1	0.0	0	1

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	26/43	244	1	2	4	-3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	20	34	1.7	1	-10.2
Jacoby Brissett	1	7	7.0	0	1.6
Salvon Ahmed	4	6	1.5	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	8	10	83	0	25%	0.3
Mike Gesicki	4	8	54	0	20%	2.5
Durham Smythe	2	2	27	0	5%	1.8
Myles Gaskin	6	6	23	0	15%	1.2
Mack Hollins	3	6	22	1	15%	2.5
Kirk Merritt	1	3	13	0	8%	-0.2
Adam Shaheen	1	2	11	0	5%	1.2
Albert Wilson	1	2	11	0	5%	0.2
Isaiah Ford	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jerome Baker	4	2	0.0	1	1
Brandon Jones	3	3	0.0	0	0
Eric Rowe	5	1	0.0	0	0
Byron Jones	5	1	0.0	0	1
Elandon Roberts	2	4	0.0	0	0
Nik Needham	4	0	1.0	0	1
Emmanuel Ogbah	2	2	2.5	0	1
Adam Butler	2	0	0.0	0	2
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	0	1.0	0	0
Jevon Holland	1	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -4
Closing total: 45
HOU moneyline: +166
MIA moneyline: -185

Dolphins closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 45; the game landed 26 — under by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 72°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: HOU 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: David Culley vs Brian Flores

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.