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2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
TexansHouston9
BY 8final margin
DolphinsMiami17
Houston Texans 9 at Miami Dolphins 17. Final.
Dolphins -4 ✓U 45 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 9
Miami Dolphins 17, Texans 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:43, 4th and 9 — 13.5 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:43 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Texans
(5:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore). FUMBLES (33-A.Moore), RECOVERED by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis at MIA 23.
Dolphins closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.
Miami Dolphins 17–9. Biggest swing: Q2 5:43, Texans +13.5% win probability on one snap.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jevon HollandDolphinsQ1 10:46(10:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland [29-Br.Jones] at MIA -7. Touchback.
13.0pts
Jerome BakerDolphinsQ2 0:59(:59) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at HOU 26. 55-J.Baker ran ob at HOU 26 for no gain. Penalty on HOU-72-G.Christian, Offensive Holding, declined.
11.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Texans at 6 of 16 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — -0.03 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Texans173 of 183 plays carry both curves
(5:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore). FUMBLES (33-A.Moore), RECOVERED by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis at MIA 23.
Swing −13.5 for DolphinsExpected points −4.96 for DolphinsThe model had Texans 3 points higher than the market did.play 70
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:43MIA +14% win prob(5:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore). FUMBLES (33-A.Moore), RECOVERED by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis at MIA 23.
1st · 10:46HOU +13% win prob(10:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Holland [29-Br.Jones] at MIA -7. Touchback.
2nd · 0:59HOU +12% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at HOU 26. 55-J.Baker ran ob at HOU 26 for no gain. Penalty on HOU-72-G.Christian, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 7:57HOU +8% win prob(7:57) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett sacked at HOU 41 for -6 yards (54-J.Martin). FUMBLES (54-J.Martin) [54-J.Martin], RECOVERED by HOU-97-M.Collins at HOU 40.
2nd · 9:00MIA +7% win prob(9:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to HOU 38, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 25-D.King to HOU 40 for 2 yards (22-E.Campbell). PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40.
2nd · 13:21HOU +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Myles Gaskin's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 4:41 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:41Myles Gaskin·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd9:52Ka'imi Fairbairn·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+33–7
2nd4:37Ka'imi Fairbairn·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+36–7
2nd1:12Jason Sanders·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+36–10
4th11:35Ka'imi Fairbairn·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+39–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryDolphins
Texans3–6Dolphins
272Total yards262
4.1Yards per play3.6
33%Success rate38%
38%Third-down rate56%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays1
14First downs20
5Sacks taken4
5Turnovers4
The read
Dolphins ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Texans: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.19Dolphins: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Texans: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.03Dolphins: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Texans: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.51Dolphins: −0.51 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 66 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 72 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Dolphins 2.
NoteTexans outgained Dolphins 272-262 but lost the turnover battle 5-4. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 9Against their seasonOver Expected
HOU's pass rate over expected, +8.5 pts, is past their previous high of +3.5 pts in week 8 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Dolphins17.6%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.5 pts, 12.3 points above their season mean of -3.8 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Johnston punts+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore). FUMBLES (33-A.Moore), RECOVERED by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis at MIA 23.
Q2 5:43 · Texans · 4th & 9 at HOU 39 · gained nothing · +4.96 EP · +17.5% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 92 yards from the HOU 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
36%
Yards
534
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR54-0.2469%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.4381%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.0336%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10-0.1670%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Dolphins 16
Texans0Dolphins6
Texans0Dolphins7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Texans 6
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 28
Intercepted2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Dolphins 27
Texans3Dolphins7
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 13
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 44
Texans6Dolphins7
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 17
Texans6Dolphins10
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Texans 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
Texans6Dolphins16
Texans6Dolphins17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 35
Intercepted3 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 43
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 44 to the Dolphins 48
Punt16 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Texans 32
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 7 to the Texans 23
4th quarter46 plays
Texans9Dolphins17
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Dolphins 1
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Texans 30
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Dolphins 45
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 31
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 30
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Texans 33
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 2 to the Texans 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -4
Closing total
45
Texans moneyline
+166
Dolphins moneyline
-185
Dolphins closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 45; the game landed 26 — under by 19.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Texans 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
David Culley vs Brian Flores
(13:21) 37-M.Gaskin right guard to MIA 32 for 5 yards (43-N.Hewitt, 51-K.Grugier-Hill). FUMBLES (51-K.Grugier-Hill), RECOVERED by HOU-91-R.Lopez at MIA 33.
3rd · 11:46HOU +6% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 97-M.Collins (90-R.Blacklock) at HOU 44. 97-M.Collins to HOU 44 for no gain (73-A.Jackson).
2nd · 7:37MIA +6% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 38 for 10 yards (21-E.Rowe).
Texanscategory by categoryDolphins
Texans0
Dolphins6
