For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Chargers153 of 167 plays carry both curves
(2:48) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to PHI 37 for 2 yards (58-G.Avery).
Swing −19.8 for EaglesExpected points −2.00 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 10 points higher than the market did.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:48PHI +20% win prob(2:48) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to PHI 37 for 2 yards (58-G.Avery).
4th · 1:45PHI +14% win prob(1:45) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to PHI 27 for 1 yard (93-M.Williams).
4th · 15:00PHI +13% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to PHI 32 for 18 yards (28-A.Harris).
4th · 6:16PHI +13% win prob(6:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:25PHI +12% win prob(11:25) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:40PHI +11% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to PHI 17 for 49 yards (2-D.Slay).
3rd · 3:43PHI +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 29-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:05Dustin Hopkins·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap M.OvertonLead never changed again+327–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryEagles
Chargers6–2Eagles
447Total yards331
6.9Yards per play5.8
52%Success rate51%
50%Third-down rate67%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays9
27First downs20
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Chargers: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.22Eagles: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.56Chargers: +0.56 expected points added per play
+0.45Eagles: +0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Chargers: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.06Eagles: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 65 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Eagles’s 57 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 6, Eagles 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 6.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.7% in week 7.
A 3.9-swing turn from week 8.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
high through week 9Against their seasonFourth Down
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 9.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 8.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.6 points.
PHI's pass rate over expected, −19.1 pts, is past their previous low of −16.3 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Eagles0.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.5 points below their season mean of 12.5% and 1.7 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Rashawn SlaterT · Every snap100%69 snaps
72Michael SchofieldG · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Storm NortonT · Every snap100%69 snaps
71Matt FeilerG · Every snap100%69 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
10Justin HerbertQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time90%62 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Full-time83%57 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation67%46 snaps
82Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational45%31 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Rotational42%29 snaps
89Donald ParhamTE · Rotational41%28 snaps
15Jalen GuytonWR · Rotational36%25 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
27Joshua KelleyRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
68Senio KelemeteG · Situational22%15 snaps
35Larry RountreeRB · Situational9%6 snaps
88Tre' McKittyTE · Situational9%6 snaps
7Andre RobertsWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Michael DavisCBAsante SamuelCBGabe NabersFBEaston StickQBJustin JacksonRBAlohi GilmanSSTrey PipkinsT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:16 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at LAC 28 · gained 28 · +3.04 EP · +22.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 98 yards from the LAC 1 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.19
Success rate
48%
Yards
778
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.4471%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0241%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13+0.028%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2142%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.8736%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.3529%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Chargers 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Eagles 2
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 1 to the Eagles 4
Chargers6Eagles0
Chargers7Eagles0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Eagles 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 33
2nd quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chargers7Eagles6
Chargers7Eagles7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Chargers 4
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Eagles 27
Chargers7Eagles10
Field goal19 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Chargers 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Chargers10Eagles10
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Eagles 12
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Chargers16Eagles10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Eagles 8
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Chargers16Eagles16
Chargers16Eagles17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Chargers 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Eagles 48
4th quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Chargers22Eagles17
Chargers24Eagles17
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Eagles 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Chargers24Eagles23
Chargers24Eagles24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Chargers 28
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Chargers27Eagles24
Field goal22 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Eagles 11
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
