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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 9
It turned at Q4 0:44, 2nd and 10, on Derek Carr — 22.8 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:44 · 2nd and 10
Derek Carr
Giants
(:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NYG 20 for -7 yards (95-Q.Roche). FUMBLES (95-Q.Roche) [95-Q.Roche], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at NYG 23. Penalty on LV-74-K.Miller, Offensive Holding, declined. Officially, a sack for -10 yards.
New York Giants 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 0:44, Giants +22.8% win probability on one snap.
22.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 5 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Giants won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Raiders at 4 of 12 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NYG 20 for -7 yards (95-Q.Roche). FUMBLES (95-Q.Roche) [95-Q.Roche], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at NYG 23. Penalty on LV-74-K.Miller, Offensive Holding, declined. Officially, a sack
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Xavier McKinney's 41-yard touchdown with 13:38 left in the 3rd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Xavier McKinney41-yd defence TD41-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+713–179 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryGiants
Raiders ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 67 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Giants’s 53 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 6, Giants 4.
Raiders outgained Giants 403-248 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's sack or hit rate, 26.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
NYG's early-down pass rate, 41.5%, is past their previous low of 53.2% in week 7 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders7.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 67 snaps
Giants-6.6 ptsright on their number · −4.7 vs their -1.9 pts, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 94%
Tendencies room →Raiders70.4%inside their normal wobble · +9.9 vs their 60.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 54 early downs
Giants41.5%leaned — ran early · −16.3 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±14.0 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Raiders25.0%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Giants0.0%leaned — took the kick · −29.0 vs their 29.0%, and they swing ±26.1 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Raiders26.9%leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Giants6.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.9%, 10.1 points above their season mean of 16.8% and 1.6 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
30/46, 296 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-7.3 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
15/20, 110 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-1.2 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Evan Engram banked 5.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Featured Receiver | 17.9 | +0.6 | 65% | 71% | 20% | 9% | 7/9, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Darren WallerTE · Featured Receiver | 16.2 | −6.8 | 88% | 94% | 24% | 37% | 7/11, 92 yd |
| Kenyan DrakeRB · Receiving Back | 16.0 | +1.7 | 45% | 52% | 17% | 0% | 4 car, 30 yd · 6/8, 70 yd |
| Devontae BookerRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.2 | +1.4 | 73% | 65% | 17% | 0% | 21 car, 99 yd · 3/3, 23 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.5 | −0.5 | 49% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 13 car, 76 yd · 4/4, 19 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +5.9 | 82% | 88% | 17% | 29% | 3/3, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | −19.2 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 30/46, 296 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 8.1 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/20, 110 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 17 yd |
| Kyle RudolphTE · Alpha Receiver | 6.0 | −1.6 | 55% | 31% | 28% | 11% | 4/5, 20 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 5.8 | +0.9 | 20% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Kenny GolladayWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +0.4 | 55% | 65% | 17% | 43% | 2/3, 28 yd |
| Jalen RichardRB | 3.8 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −6.1 | 96% | 94% | 9% | 27% | 1/4, 20 yd |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 55% | 65% | 6% | 4% | 1 car, -2 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Marcus MariotaQB | 0.6 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 32% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −11.4 | 93% | 94% | 9% | 27% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Dillon StonerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 55% | 65% | 6% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Pharoh CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 13-H.Renfrow INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at LV 41. 29-X.McKinney for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 13:38 · Raiders · 3rd & 7 at LV 35 · gained nothing · -7.09 EP · −22.6% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 85 yards from the LV 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders0
Giants6Raiders0Giants7Raiders6Giants7Raiders7Giants7Raiders10Giants7Raiders10Giants10Raiders13Giants10Raiders13Giants16Raiders13Giants17Raiders16Giants17Raiders16Giants20Raiders16Giants23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 30/46 | 296 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −7.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 76 | 5.8 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 7 | 11 | 92 | 0 | 24% | +2.8 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 17% | +1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Perryman | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Facyson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Abram | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Wright |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 15/20 | 110 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_09_LV_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 39 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| Derek Carr | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 9 | 49 | 1 | 20% | −2.6 |
| Alec Ingold | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 7% | +1.7 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 9% | −2.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 9% | −0.7 |
| Jalen Richard | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 7% | −0.3 |
| Bryan Edwards | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −3.1 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Littleton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Hankins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 |
| 99 |
| 4.7 |
| 0 |
| −0.0 |
| Elijhaa Penny | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 17% | +2.3 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 17% | +2.0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 17% | +2.4 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 28% | +2.3 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +1.8 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Elijhaa Penny | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 11% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tae Crowder | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Logan Ryan | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Trent Harris | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Holmes | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Reggie Ragland | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Roche | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
