2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -7.5 no coverO 51 ✓Ravens closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:23, BAL +42% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 5:23MIN — BAL MIN ball · 4th & 9BAL 73%

(5:23) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 5:23BAL +42% win prob(5:23) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.
OT · 6:46MIN +30% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr at MIN 38. 55-A.Barr to MIN 38 for no gain (33-D.Freeman).
OT · 1:51BAL +29% win prob(1:51) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 17-L.Bell up the middle to MIN 19 for 12 yards (27-C.Dantzler).
OT · 1:01BAL +23% win prob(1:01) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 17-L.Bell left tackle to MIN 18 for 1 yard (43-C.Bynum).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Ravens
Offensive plays	52	89
Total yards	318	500 (edge)
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	0.11
Success rate	38%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06	0.31 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	32 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

27/41, 266 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-1.8 expected points added · -0.2% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

17/28, 187 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

21 att, 120 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

17 att, 110 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

9/12 for 116 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

3/5 for 69 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	12	41	4:26	Fumble
2	MIN	MIN 21	7	79	2:02	Touchdown
3	BAL	BAL 25	9	35	3:48	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 6	12	93	6:29	Touchdown
5	BAL	BAL 25	7	22	4:08	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 28	4	8	2:08	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 11	6	17	2:22	Punt
8	MIN	MIN 21	7	25	2:45	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 20	1	0	0:11	Interception
10	MIN	BAL 16	4	-1	0:16	Turnover on downs
11	BAL	BAL 25	8	33	1:06	Touchdown
12	MIN	MIN 25	2	0	0:19	End of half
13	MIN	—	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown
14	BAL	BAL 28	12	67	6:08	Touchdown
15	MIN	MIN 25	9	41	4:03	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 18	19	82	10:17	Touchdown
17	MIN	MIN 25	5	-3	1:34	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 39	8	61	4:16	Touchdown
19	MIN	MIN 25	12	75	2:26	Touchdown
20	BAL	BAL 25	6	18	1:03	Turnover on downs
21	BAL	BAL 25	7	42	3:18	Interception
22	MIN	MIN 38	4	1	1:25	Punt
23	BAL	BAL 10	10	82	5:01	Turnover on downs

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 93 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	17/28	187	2	0	0	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	17	110	6.5	0	-1.0
Justin Jefferson	1	11	11.0	0	0.9
Kene Nwangwu	1	9	9.0	0	2.9
Kirk Cousins	1	1	1.0	1	0.9
Alexander Mattison	4	0	0.0	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	3	5	69	1	18%	9.4
Tyler Conklin	5	7	45	0	25%	0.0
C.J. Ham	1	1	27	0	4%	2.0
K.J. Osborn	1	2	20	0	7%	1.1
Dalvin Cook	3	3	12	0	11%	-0.2
Adam Thielen	2	7	6	1	25%	-3.2
Luke Stocker	1	1	5	0	4%	0.1
Alexander Mattison	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.2
Dede Westbrook	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	7	9	0.0	0	0
Camryn Bynum	8	4	0.0	1	1
Xavier Woods	8	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Dantzler	9	0	0.0	0	0
Kenny Willekes	4	3	0.5	0	0
Kris Boyd	4	2	0.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	3	1	0.0	0	1
Sheldon Richardson	3	1	1.5	0	0
Armon Watts	3	0	1.0	0	0
James Lynch	1	2	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	27/41	266	3	2	3	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	21	120	5.7	0	3.7
Devonta Freeman	13	79	6.1	0	5.2
Le'Veon Bell	11	48	4.4	1	2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	9	12	116	0	29%	3.1
Rashod Bateman	5	8	52	0	20%	3.8
Mark Andrews	5	10	44	0	24%	-6.3
Patrick Ricard	3	5	35	1	12%	-2.3
Devin Duvernay	2	2	8	1	5%	1.7
Eric Tomlinson	1	1	7	0	2%	0.3
Devonta Freeman	2	3	4	1	7%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Josh Bynes	6	3	1
DeShon Elliott	5	0	0
Tyus Bowser	2	2	1
Patrick Queen	2	2	0
Chuck Clark	1	2	0
Brandon Stephens	2	1	1
Justin Ellis	2	1	0
Tavon Young	2	0	0
Chris Board	2	0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7.5
Closing total: 51
MIN moneyline: +262
BAL moneyline: -305

Ravens closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51; the game landed 65 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: MIN 7 days · BAL 14 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs John Harbaugh