For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 31 at Baltimore Ravens 34. Final.
Ravens -7.5 no coverO 51 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 9
Baltimore Ravens 34, Vikings 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 5:23, 4th and 9 — 42.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 5:23 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Vikings
(5:23) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.
Ravens closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:23, Vikings +42.2% win probability on one snap.
42.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Anthony BarrVikingsOT 6:46(6:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr at MIN 38. 55-A.Barr to MIN 38 for no gain (33-D.Freeman).
29.6pts
Le'Veon BellRavensOT 1:51(1:51) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 17-L.Bell up the middle to MIN 19 for 12 yards (27-C.Dantzler).
28.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Vikings at +0.06 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Vikings189 of 207 plays carry both curves
(5:23) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.
Swing −42.2 for RavensExpected points −0.44 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 190
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:23BAL +42% win prob(5:23) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.
Overtime · 6:46MIN +30% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left intended for 42-P.Ricard INTERCEPTED by 55-A.Barr at MIN 38. 55-A.Barr to MIN 38 for no gain (33-D.Freeman).
Overtime · 1:51BAL +29% win prob(1:51) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 17-L.Bell up the middle to MIN 19 for 12 yards (27-C.Dantzler).
Overtime · 1:01BAL +23% win prob(1:01) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 17-L.Bell left tackle to MIN 18 for 1 yard (43-C.Bynum).
Overtime · 8:02BAL +18% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown pushed ob at MIN 37 for 20 yards (29-K.Boyd).
Overtime · 2:16MIN +18% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 33-D.Freeman left guard to MIN 31 for 3 yards (23-X.Woods; 94-D.Tomlinson). PENALTY on BAL-85-E.Tomlinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 34 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 36-yard field goal with 0:20 left in overtime put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:38Justin Tucker·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+30–3
Overtime0:20Justin Tucker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+331–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryRavens
Vikings3–6Ravens
318Total yards500
6.1Yards per play5.6
38%Success rate52%
36%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays9
12First downs32
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers3
The read
Ravens ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Vikings: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.11Ravens: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Vikings: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.04Ravens: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Vikings: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.31Ravens: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 52 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Ravens’s 89 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Ravens 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's pass rate over expected, −10.2 pts, is past their previous low of −8.6 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
high through week 9Against their seasonFourth Down
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 9.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Ravens21.4%
inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -10.2 pts, 7.5 points below their season mean of -2.6 pts and 1.7 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
71Christian DarrisawT · Every snap100%54 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%54 snaps
72Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%54 snaps
52Mason ColeC · Every snap100%54 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%54 snaps
74Olisaemeka UdohT · Full-time98%53 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time89%48 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Full-time87%47 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time80%43 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Full-time80%43 snaps
17K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational48%26 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Rotational39%21 snaps
35Luke StockerTE · Rotational33%18 snaps
25Alexander MattisonRB · Situational17%9 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Situational17%9 snaps
64Blake BrandelT · Situational9%5 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Michael PierceNTChazz SurrattOLBKellen MondQBHarrison SmithSSIhmir Smith-MarsetteWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Berry punts+42% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:23) 3-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.
OT 5:23 · Vikings · 4th & 9 at MIN 39 · gained nothing · +0.44 EP · +42.2% win probability
187 snaps placed · 20 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 207 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 207 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 94 yards from the MIN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
207 of 207 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
207
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
43%
Yards
818
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0969%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24+0.0054%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.5471%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR19+0.3221%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1556%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8+0.3263%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0350%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.4817%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR5+0.6620%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
207 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
207 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Vikings0Ravens3
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Vikings 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Vikings6Ravens3
Vikings7Ravens3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Ravens 47
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Vikings 40
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 6 to the Ravens 8
2nd quarter53 plays
Vikings13Ravens3
Vikings14Ravens3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 5 to the Ravens 1
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 37
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Vikings 37
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Ravens 28
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 46
Intercepted1 play
Vikings17Ravens3
Field goal5 plays
Drive ended7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 42
The period ended1 play
Vikings17Ravens9
Vikings17Ravens10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Vikings 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Vikings23Ravens10
Vikings24Ravens10
Touchdown2 plays
Vikings24Ravens16
Vikings24Ravens17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Vikings 1
Punt13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 42
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 40
4th quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Vikings24Ravens23
Vikings24Ravens24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Vikings 5
Punt5 plays
Vikings24Ravens30
Vikings24Ravens31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Vikings 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Vikings30Ravens31
Vikings31Ravens31
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Ravens 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Vikings 49
Overtime29 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Vikings 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Vikings 40
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Vikings31Ravens34
Field goal16 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Vikings 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7.5
Closing total
51
Vikings moneyline
+262
Ravens moneyline
-305
Ravens closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51; the game landed 65 — over by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 54°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Ravens 14 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs John Harbaugh
2nd · 1:52MIN +16% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 43-C.Bynum at BAL 43. 43-C.Bynum pushed ob at BAL 16 for 27 yards (77-B.Bozeman).
1st · 8:39BAL +14% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
