2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Carolina Panthers

NE -3.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓16 mph windPatriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 18.

New England Patriots 24–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 7:12, NE +16% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 7:12NE — CAR CAR ball · 2nd & 10NE 78%

(7:12) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 12. 27-J.Jackson for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 7:12NE +16% win prob(7:12) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 12. 27-J.Jackson for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 10:28CAR +14% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson to CAR 24 for 41 yards (4-J.Carter; 21-J.Chinn).
Q2 · 6:31NE +12% win prob(6:31) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 9-S.Gilmore at NE 47. 9-S.Gilmore to NE 34 for 13 yards (10-M.Jones).
Q1 · 0:39NE +11% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 44 for -9 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], RECOVERED by CAR-49-F.Luvu at NE 40. 49-F.Luvu to NE 33 for 7 yards (76-I.Wynn). CAR-53-B.Burns was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Panthers
Offensive plays	56	57
Total yards	276 (edge)	240
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.04 (edge)	-0.49
Success rate	45% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	36%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.69
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.49.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

16/33, 172 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-24.5 expected points added · -14.5% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

12/18, 139 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.6 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

10 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Brandon BoldenRB

8 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

4/5 for 54 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

3/4 for 34 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	8	35	4:41	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 20	4	6	1:16	Punt
3	NE	NE 40	7	23	3:28	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 5	6	21	3:36	Punt
5	NE	NE 47	3	-7	1:29	Fumble
6	CAR	NE 33	7	12	3:23	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 25	10	75	3:48	Touchdown
8	CAR	CAR 20	5	3	1:12	Punt
9	NE	NE 38	2	3	0:45	Interception
10	CAR	NE 34	6	18	1:54	Turnover on downs
11	NE	NE 25	12	80	4:04	Touchdown
12	CAR	CAR 25	2	5	0:24	End of half
13	CAR	CAR 26	5	4	1:42	Punt
14	NE	NE 32	4	1	1:24	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 16	8	64	4:59	Defensive touchdown
16	CAR	CAR 25	7	12	2:51	Interception
17	NE	CAR 43	6	11	1:44	Turnover on downs
18	CAR	CAR 25	9	71	3:49	Interception
19	NE	NE 20	12	44	7:37	Turnover on downs
20	CAR	CAR 44	9	24	2:25	Turnover on downs
21	NE	NE 42	5	11	3:29	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	12/18	139	1	1	2	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	10	62	6.2	0	2.8
Brandon Bolden	8	54	6.8	0	3.7
Damien Harris	15	30	2.0	1	-6.1
Mac Jones	2	4	2.0	0	0.5
Jonnu Smith	1	4	4.0	0	0.1
Brian Hoyer	3	-3	-1.0	0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	2	44	0	11%	3.4
Kendrick Bourne	3	4	34	0	22%	2.5
Brandon Bolden	2	2	27	0	11%	1.3
Hunter Henry	2	3	19	1	17%	4.4
Jakobi Meyers	1	4	8	0	22%	-6.9
Jonnu Smith	1	2	4	0	11%	-1.6
Damien Harris	1	1	3	0	6%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Adrian Phillips	3	3	0.0	0
Davon Godchaux	3	2	0.0	0
Myles Bryant	3	2	0.0	0
Matt Judon	3	1	1.0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	2	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	1	2	0.0	0
Joejuan Williams	3	0	0.0	0
Lawrence Guy	1	2	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	1	0.0	2
Jalen Mills	1	1	0.0	1

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	16/33	172	0	3	1	-24.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	14	52	3.7	-0.8
D.J. Moore	2	14	7.0	1.0
Sam Darnold	3	9	3.0	-1.0
Chuba Hubbard	3	3	1.0	-2.0
Ameer Abdullah	1	0	0.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	4	5	54	17%	3.9
Chuba Hubbard	1	2	33	7%	1.9
D.J. Moore	3	7	32	24%	-6.7
Ameer Abdullah	4	5	30	17%	1.6
Ian Thomas	1	2	9	7%	-11.0
Willie Snead	1	2	6	7%	-1.7
Tommy Tremble	1	2	6	7%	-1.0
Robbie Chosen	1	3	2	10%	-5.1
Terrace Marshall	0	1	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	4	6	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	6	4	0.0	0
Brian Burns	4	2	1.5	0
Jermaine Carter	1	4	0.0	0
Sean Chandler	3	1	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	1	2	0.5	0
Donte Jackson	1	2	0.0	0
Myles Hartsfield	2	1	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	1	2	0.0	1
Rashaan Melvin	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3.5
Closing total: 41.5
NE moneyline: -176
CAR moneyline: +157

Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: NE 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Matt Rhule

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.