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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 7, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 9
It turned at Q3 7:12, 2nd and 10, on J.C. Jackson — 16.3 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 24–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 7:12, Patriots +16.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:12 · 2nd and 10
J.C. Jackson
Patriots
(7:12) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 12. 27-J.Jackson for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.04 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.49 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.18 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.69 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(7:12) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 12. 27-J.Jackson for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Damien Harris's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 8:24 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryPanthers
Patriots ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 56 snaps at a 36% dropback rate against Panthers’s 57 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Panthers 3.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.49.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's pass rate over expected, −25.7 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 6.6 points clear of the next team along.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate, 31.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.8 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 33.3% in week 8 against 57.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · +0.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-25.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −19.6 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 56 snaps
Panthers-3.4 ptsright on their number · −2.1 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Patriots31.0%leaned — ran early · −19.2 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 42 early downs
Panthers57.8%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.0%.
Panthers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Patriots8.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Panthers10.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -25.7 pts, 19.6 points below their season mean of -6.2 pts and 1.2 times their own 16.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
16/33, 172 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-24.5 expected points added · -14.5% completion over expected
Passing · NE
12/18, 139 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.6 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
4/5 for 54 yds, 0 TD
17% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rhamondre Stevenson banked 4.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.6 | +1.5 | 49% | 32% | 17% | 5% | 14 car, 52 yd · 4/5, 54 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 12.6 | +4.5 | 27% | 35% | 11% | 0% | 10 car, 62 yd · 2/2, 44 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB · Committee Back | 10.3 | −0.7 | 39% | 30% | 6% | 0% | 15 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB · Receiving Back | 10.1 | +3.3 | 47% | 50% | 11% | 19% | 8 car, 54 yd · 2/2, 27 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +1.6 | 56% | 70% | 17% | 34% | 2/3, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| D.J. MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −5.6 | 85% | 70% | 24% | 52% | 2 car, 14 yd · 3/7, 32 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB · Receiving Back | 7.0 | −0.7 | 37% | 43% | 17% | 7% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/5, 30 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Featured Receiver | 6.4 | +0.5 | 53% | 65% | 22% | 23% | 3/4, 34 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 6.0 | −4.1 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 12/18, 139 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 4 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 4.6 | 0.0 | 17% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 3 car, 3 yd · 1/2, 33 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.1 | 64% | 51% | 7% | 5% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.8 | 45% | 35% | 11% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 1.8 | −5.3 | 89% | 100% | 22% | 33% | 1/4, 8 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 1.8 | −10.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/33, 172 yd, 3 INT · 3 car, 9 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.2 | 58% | 51% | 7% | 1% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Willie SneadWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.0 | 29% | 41% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −2.5 | 92% | 86% | 10% | 6% | 1/3, 2 yd |
| Colin ThompsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 37% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alex EricksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Matt SlaterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Brian HoyerQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:12) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 12. 27-J.Jackson for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:12 · Panthers · 2nd & 10 at NE 20 · gained nothing · -11.38 EP · −23.2% win probability
151 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Panthers3Patriots6Panthers3Patriots7Panthers3Patriots7Panthers6Patriots13Panthers6Patriots14Panthers6Patriots20Panthers6Patriots21Panthers6Patriots24Panthers6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 12/18 | 139 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Brandon Bolden | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Damien Harris |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 11% | +3.4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Phillips | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16/33 | 172 | 0 | 3 | 1 | −24.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_09_NE_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| 15 |
| 30 |
| 2.0 |
| 1 |
| −6.1 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| 22% |
| +2.5 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 11% | +1.3 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 17% | +4.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 22% | −6.9 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Matt Judon | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joejuan Williams | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Mills | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.8 |
| D.J. Moore | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 17% | +3.9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 7% | +1.9 |
| D.J. Moore | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 24% | −6.7 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 17% | +1.6 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −11.0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −1.7 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10% | −5.1 |
| Terrace Marshall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 4 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Carter | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Chandler | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashaan Melvin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
