For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
DYNATYZE
Loading
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
Game Center
⏸live · 12s tick · as of 10:33 PM ET · 15 min ago · 1 live · 15 final
2021 Week 9 · Thu, Nov 4, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
JetsNew York30
BY 15final margin
ColtsIndianapolis45
New York Jets 30 at Indianapolis Colts 45. Final.
Colts -10.5 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 9
Indianapolis Colts 45, Jets 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:37, 1st and 10, on Elijah Moore — 6.4 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Colts closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Indianapolis Colts 45–30. Biggest swing: Q1 3:37, Jets +6.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:37 · 1st and 10
Elijah Moore
Jets
(3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left to 8-E.Moore for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ1 11:55(11:55) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to IND 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.
6.1pts
Jonathan TaylorColtsQ1 11:43(11:43) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 21 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley, 52-J.Davis).
6.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.42 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Jets at 6 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.44 expected points per snap, against Jets at +0.20 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Jets174 of 181 plays carry both curves
(3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left to 8-E.Moore for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −6.4 for ColtsExpected points −2.26 for ColtsThe model had Jets 20 points higher than the market did.play 28
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:37IND +6% win prob(3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left to 8-E.Moore for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:43IND +6% win prob(11:43) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 21 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley, 52-J.Davis).
1st · 11:55IND +6% win prob(11:55) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to IND 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.
1st · 7:04IND +5% win prob(7:04) 21-N.Hines right tackle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:11NYJ +4% win prob(11:11) (Shotgun) 25-T.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 46 for 3 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), RECOVERED by IND-30-G.Odum at NYJ 46.
1st · 9:52IND +4% win prob(9:52) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to IND 39 for 9 yards (26-B.Echols).
1st · 1:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 21-yard rushing touchdown with 13:31 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Colts ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Jets: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.44Colts: +0.44 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.40Jets: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.46Colts: +0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.41Jets: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.42Colts: +0.42 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 75 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Colts’s 60 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Jets 6, Colts 7.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.44 expected points added per play vs 0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Colts14.0%
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.9%, 13.7 points above their season mean of 59.1% and 1.1 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%77 snaps
62Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%77 snaps
75Alijah Vera-TuckerG · Every snap100%77 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%77 snaps
76George FantT · Every snap100%77 snaps
9Josh JohnsonQB · Full-time82%63 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Heavy rotation79%61 snaps
86Ryan GriffinTE · Heavy rotation62%48 snaps
8Elijah MooreWR · Heavy rotation60%46 snaps
11Denzel MimsWR · Heavy rotation60%46 snaps
32Michael CarterRB · Heavy rotation58%45 snaps
88Keelan ColeWR · Rotational49%38 snaps
25Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational42%32 snaps
16Jeff SmithWR · Rotational29%22 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Situational21%16 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational19%15 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Situational19%15 snaps
5Mike WhiteQB · Situational18%14 snaps
67Dan FeeneyG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jonathan MarshallDTLaurent Duvernay-TardifGJoe FlaccoQBZach WilsonQBTevin ColemanRBJarrod WilsonSSCorey DavisWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Johnson up−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:11) (Shotgun) 25-T.Johnson up the middle to NYJ 46 for 3 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), RECOVERED by IND-30-G.Odum at NYJ 46.
Q2 11:11 · Jets · 2nd & 5 at NYJ 43 · gained 3 · -5.11 EP · −9.2% win probability
172 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 88 yards from the IND 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.23
Success rate
49%
Yards
1018
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.2674%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.4159%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0570%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+1.4625%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1743%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+0.1086%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 37
Jets0Colts6
Jets0Colts7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Jets 34
Jets6Colts7
Jets7Colts7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Colts 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Jets 49
2nd quarter46 plays
Jets7Colts13
Jets7Colts14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 21
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 43
Jets7Colts20
Jets7Colts21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Jets 1
Jets10Colts21
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Colts 15
Jets10Colts27
Jets10Colts28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jets 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Jets 2
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 1 to the Jets 8
Jets10Colts34
Jets10Colts35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 2
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 30
Jets10Colts41
Jets10Colts42
Touchdown2 plays
Jets16Colts42
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Colts 19
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 19
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Colts 49
4th quarter55 plays
Jets22Colts42
Jets23Colts42
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Colts 13
Jets23Colts45
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jets 21
Jets29Colts45
Jets30Colts45
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Colts 22
Punt7 plays
Intercepted13 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Colts 7
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Jetscategory by categoryColts
Jets0
Colts6
