2021 Week 9 · Thu, Nov 4, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium

New York Jets

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -10.5 ✓O 46 ✓DomeColts closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Indianapolis Colts 45–30. Biggest swing: Q1 3:37, IND +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:37NYJ — IND NYJ ball · 1st & 10IND 88%

(3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left to 8-E.Moore for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:37IND +6% win prob(3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left to 8-E.Moore for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:43IND +6% win prob(11:43) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to IND 21 for 9 yards (57-C.Mosley, 52-J.Davis).
Q1 · 11:55IND +6% win prob(11:55) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to IND 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.
Q1 · 7:04IND +5% win prob(7:04) 21-N.Hines right tackle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Colts
Offensive plays	75	60
Total yards	487	533 (edge)
Yards per play	6.5	8.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.20	0.44 (edge)
Success rate	47%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.40	0.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	0.42 (edge)
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	29 (edge)	26
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.44 expected points added per play vs 0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Josh JohnsonQB

27/41, 317 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

14.4 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

22/30, 272 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.9 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

19 att, 172 yds, 2 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

6 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Elijah MooreWR

7/8 for 84 yds, 2 TD

15% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Keelan ColeWR

5/8 for 66 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 10	8	27	3:17	Punt
2	IND	IND 12	9	83	4:48	Touchdown
3	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	75	3:23	Touchdown
4	IND	IND 24	11	76	5:08	Touchdown
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	21	2:21	Fumble
6	IND	NYJ 46	10	46	6:04	Touchdown
7	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	65	3:13	Turnover on downs
8	IND	IND 25	11	75	1:34	Touchdown
9	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	0	0:12	End of half
10	IND	IND 16	10	83	5:30	Turnover on downs
11	NYJ	NYJ 1	4	7	1:30	Punt
12	IND	NYJ 40	4	37	1:06	Touchdown
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	5	0:42	Punt
14	IND	IND 22	2	78	0:10	Touchdown
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	75	3:02	Touchdown
16	IND	IND 18	5	1	1:49	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 34	12	66	5:03	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 25	8	54	3:07	Turnover on downs
19	NYJ	NYJ 20	15	70	4:26	Touchdown
20	IND	NYJ 48	5	0	0:26	Punt
21	NYJ	NYJ 10	12	76	2:24	Interception
22	IND	IND 11	1	0	0:45	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 83 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Johnson	27/41	317	3	1	2	14.4
Mike White	7/11	95	1	0	0	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Michael Carter	13	49	3.8	-2.1
Ty Johnson	4	21	5.3	-4.2
Josh Johnson	4	18	4.5	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Elijah Moore	7	8	84	2	15%	7.1
Keelan Cole	5	8	66	0	15%	0.2
Ty Johnson	2	3	40	1	6%	4.0
Jeff Smith	3	4	40	0	8%	5.4
Jamison Crowder	5	7	38	0	13%	3.7
Tyler Kroft	2	3	38	0	6%	2.3
Michael Carter	1	2	37	0	4%	1.1
Ryan Griffin	4	7	28	1	13%	2.9
Denzel Mims	1	5	20	0	10%	-2.3
Trevon Wesco	2	2	16	0	4%	0.5
Braxton Berrios	2	3	5	0	6%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Ashtyn Davis	7	2	0.0
Quinnen Williams	5	2	0.0
C.J. Mosley	2	5	0.0
Brandin Echols	5	1	0.0
Marcus Maye	1	4	0.0
Quincy Williams	3	1	0.0
John Franklin-Myers	2	1	1.0
Shaq Lawson	1	1	0.0
Folorunso Fatukasi	1	1	0.0
Keelan Cole	1	0	0.0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	22/30	272	3	0	1	15.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	19	172	9.1	2	5.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	6	74	12.3	1	3.6
Carson Wentz	4	13	3.3	0	1.5
Sam Ehlinger	1	1	1.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	5	6	64	1	21%	8.7
Zach Pascal	4	7	58	0	24%	0.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	6	34	0	21%	0.8
Jonathan Taylor	2	2	28	0	7%	1.9
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	28	0	3%	1.6
Kylen Granson	1	1	27	0	3%	2.6
Ashton Dulin	2	2	23	0	7%	1.9
Dezmon Patmon	1	1	7	0	3%	0.2
Danny Pinter	1	1	2	1	3%	0.6
Jack Doyle	1	2	1	1	7%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Okereke	7	3	0.0	1	1
Kenny Moore	8	1	0.0	0	1
Shaquille Leonard	4	2	0.0	0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	5	0	0.0	0	1
George Odum	4	1	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Rodgers	4	0	0.0	0	0
DeForest Buckner	1	3	0.0	0	1
Andrew Sendejo	2	1	0.0	0	0
Xavier Rhodes	1	1	0.0	0	0
Taylor Stallworth	2	0	2.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -10.5
Closing total: 46
NYJ moneyline: +410
IND moneyline: -509

Colts closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 46; the game landed 75 — over by 29.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: NYJ 4 days · IND 4 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Frank Reich