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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q1 11:48, 3rd and 6, on CeeDee Lamb — 8.4 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 43–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:48, Cowboys +8.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:48 · 3rd and 6
CeeDee Lamb
Cowboys
(11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.68 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.78 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Falcons at 1 of 11 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
CeeDee Lamb's 13-yard touchdown catch with 11:48 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
CeeDee Lamb13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryCowboys
Cowboys ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.78 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 53 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 70 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 1, Cowboys 5.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's pass rate over expected, −15.8 pts, is past their previous low of −10.2 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 9 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 10.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 38.1 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
ATL's early-down pass rate, 42.5%, is past their previous low of 51.1% in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-15.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −14.6 vs their -1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−2.18× that swing) · 53 snaps
Cowboys-1.1 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their 0.9 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 90%
Tendencies room →Falcons42.5%leaned — ran early · −13.9 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 40 early downs
Cowboys47.2%inside their normal wobble · −10.1 vs their 57.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 141%
Fourth Down room →Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −37.2 vs their 37.2%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys100.0%leaned — went for it · +55.8 vs their 44.2%, and they swing ±38.1 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 31%
Tendencies room →Falcons5.6%inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cowboys17.2%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
ATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.8 pts, 14.6 points below their season mean of -1.2 pts and 2.2 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
24/31, 296 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
22.7 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
9/21, 117 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-14.9 expected points added · -23.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
CeeDee Lamb banked 14.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambWR · Featured Receiver | 28.6 | +14.5 | 42% | 58% | 21% | 17% | 1 car, 12 yd · 6/7, 94 yd, 2 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 26.3 | +1.9 | 81% | — | 0% | — | 24/31, 296 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 5 yd, 1 TD |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Committee Back | 20.8 | −2.9 | 49% | 50% | 9% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd · 14 car, 41 yd, 2 TD · 3/3, 15 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 15.8 | −3.4 | 42% | 42% | 21% | 4% | 11 car, 42 yd · 6/7, 56 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | −2.5 | 61% | 79% | 26% | 31% | 4/7, 60 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +1.4 | 66% | 86% | 12% | 17% | 4/4, 51 yd |
| Wayne GallmanRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.6 | −1.4 | 43% | 24% | 7% | 0% | 15 car, 55 yd · 1/2, 21 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | −3.5 | 53% | 56% | 15% | 31% | 3/5, 42 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 4.9 | −0.2 | 28% | 34% | 7% | 7% | 4 car, 25 yd · 1/2, 14 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.2 | −6.3 | 43% | 52% | 26% | 19% | 2/7, 22 yd |
| Corey ClementRB | 3.5 | −0.6 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 20 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Sean McKeonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.1 | 47% | 31% | 6% | 7% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.1 | 36% | 25% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Frank DarbyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −2.6 | 22% | 17% | 11% | 20% | 1/3, 14 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −3.6 | 66% | 83% | 6% | 10% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Mike DavisRB | 1.8 | −1.7 | 37% | 55% | 4% | 1% | 4 car, 18 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Malik TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.2 | 30% | 22% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tajae SharpeWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.4 | 57% | 59% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 0.7 | −6.5 | 70% | — | 0% | — | 9/21, 117 yd, 2 INT |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.5 | −0.1 | 35% | 28% | 0% | — | 1 car, 5 yd |
| Cooper RushQB | 0.1 | −0.7 | 18% | — | 0% | — | 3/3, 17 yd · 3 car, -6 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Feleipe FranksTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Russell GageWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.2 | 65% | 62% | 11% | 15% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Christian BlakeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 31% | 24% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh RosenQB | -1.4 | −4.0 | 28% | — | 0% | — | 1/6, 14 yd, 1 INT |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to ATL 12 for 21 yards (24-A.Terrell).
Q1 0:19 · Cowboys · 4th & 5 at ATL 33 · gained 21 · +3.70 EP · +10.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 75 yards from the ATL 25 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons0
Cowboys6Falcons0Cowboys7Falcons3Cowboys7Falcons3Cowboys13Falcons3Cowboys14Falcons3Cowboys20Falcons3Cowboys21Falcons3Cowboys27Falcons3Cowboys28Falcons3Cowboys34Falcons3Cowboys36Falcons3Cowboys42Falcons3Cowboys43Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 9/21 | 117 | 0 | 2 | 2 | −14.9 |
| Josh Rosen | 1/6 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −7.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 26% | −5.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Harris | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Terrell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/31 | 296 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +22.7 |
| Cooper Rush | 3/3 | 17 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_ATL_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -8 and covered, winning by 40.
Total closed 55; the game landed 46 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
| Mike Davis | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Keith Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| −4.3 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −0.4 |
| Frank Darby | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 11% | −2.7 |
| Mike Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.9 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Christian Blake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Russell Gage | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −5.4 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Jones | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Copeland | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daren Bates | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 2 | −4.6 |
| Corey Clement | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | −3.3 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 7 | 94 | 2 | 21% | +11.7 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 | 21% | +1.2 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 12% | +3.8 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 15% | +4.2 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9% | −0.1 |
| Sean McKeon | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayron Kearse | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Parsons | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leighton Vander Esch | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Trysten Hill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Diggs | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chauncey Golston | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
