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2021 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 11, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

10

Miami DolphinsWinner

22

BAL -8.5 upsetU 46.5 ✓

Miami Dolphins 22–10. Biggest swing: Q4 11:40, BAL +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑BAL ↓
Q4 · 11:40BAL — MIA BAL ball · 3rd & 10MIA 68%

(11:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 14-S.Watkins to 50 for 8 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at BAL 49. 25-X.Howard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 11:40BAL +19% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 14-S.Watkins to 50 for 8 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at BAL 49. 25-X.Howard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 3:29MIA +16% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 2-A.Wilson to BAL 11 for 64 yards (36-C.Clark) [93-C.Campbell].
  3. Q3 · 14:20BAL +9% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett sacked at MIA 16 for -8 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston) [50-J.Houston], recovered by MIA-74-L.Eichenberg at MIA 15. MIA-14-J.Brissett was injured during the play.
  4. Q3 · 2:21BAL +9% win prob(2:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 27 for -7 yards (8-J.Holland).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensDolphins
Offensive plays6761
Total yards305351 (edge)
Yards per play4.65.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.27-0.06 (edge)
Success rate42% (edge)36%
Dropback rate72%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.33-0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.14-0.13 (edge)
Third downs2/143/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)17
Sacks taken44
Turnovers20 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

26/43, 238 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

8/13, 158 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.3 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

9 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Devonta FreemanRB

10 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Albert WilsonWR

4/5 for 87 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Isaiah FordWR

4/4 for 84 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 2510525:12Turnover on downs
2MIAMIA 257122:40Punt
3BALBAL 258455:07Turnover on downs
4MIAMIA 384-11:02Punt
5BALBAL 234-41:10Punt
6MIAMIA 42441:35Punt
7BALBAL 16461:42Punt
8MIAMIA 4110565:14Turnover on downs
9BALBAL 206162:22Punt
10MIAMIA 117132:09Punt
11BALBAL 275180:56Punt
12MIAMIA 128840:48Turnover on downs
13BALBAL 25200:03End of half
14MIAMIA 255-101:05Punt
15BAL50562:08Punt
16MIAMIA 56142:18Punt
17BALBAL 467113:59Punt
18MIAMIA 19471:38Punt
19BALBAL 22552:13Punt
20MIAMIA 367634:05Turnover on downs
21BALBAL 25471:11Defensive touchdown
22BALBAL 256110:41Punt
23MIAMIA 255343:02Punt
24BALBAL 110643:28Touchdown
25MIAMIA 258751:53Touchdown
26BALBAL 2511681:36Interception
27MIAMIA 20200:43End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 84 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson26/43238114-8.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson9394.30-1.0
Devonta Freeman10353.50-1.9
Devin Duvernay11919.001.6
Le'Veon Bell310.30-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashod Bateman6880020%3.2
Mark Andrews6863120%3.8
Marquise Brown61337032%-5.6
Devin Duvernay4428010%1.6
Devonta Freeman3423010%-0.4
Sammy Watkins13707%-9.6
Josh Oliver01002%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Marlon Humphrey420.002
Brandon Stephens410.000
Anthony Averett400.001
Patrick Queen311.000
Calais Campbell220.000
Chuck Clark300.001
Chris Board120.000
Odafe Oweh211.000
Justin Houston211.000
Josh Bynes301.001

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa8/131580012.3
Jacoby Brissett11/23156002-2.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Myles Gaskin14312.20-4.0
Albert Wilson2199.500.8
Salvon Ahmed263.00-0.4
Jacoby Brissett144.00-0.2
Tua Tagovailoa300.011.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Albert Wilson4587015%4.2
Isaiah Ford4484012%4.3
Jaylen Waddle4661018%3.8
Adam Shaheen3434012%0.8
Durham Smythe112303%1.4
Myles Gaskin121406%-0.1
Salvon Ahmed11903%0.8
Patrick Laird11203%0.0
Mack Hollins01003%-1.6
Mike Gesicki070021%-6.4
Preston Williams02006%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Byron Jones620.000
Elandon Roberts241.000
Christian Wilkins230.000
Andrew Van Ginkel320.501
Brandon Jones410.000
Jevon Holland411.002
Jerome Baker400.000
Eric Rowe310.001
Xavien Howard400.000
Justin Coleman210.012

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -8.5
Closing total
46.5
BAL moneyline
-390
MIA moneyline
+326

Ravens closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 32 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
77°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
BAL 4 days · MIA 4 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Brian Flores