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DYNATYZE
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2021 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 11, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore10
BY 12final margin
DolphinsMiami22
Baltimore Ravens 10 at Miami Dolphins 22. Final.
Ravens -8.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 10
Miami Dolphins 22, Ravens 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 11:40, 3rd and 10, on Sammy Watkins — 19.0 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
U 46.5 ✓
Ravens closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 22–10. Biggest swing: Q4 11:40, Dolphins +19.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:40 · 3rd and 10
Sammy Watkins
Dolphins
(11:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 14-S.Watkins to 50 for 8 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at BAL 49. 25-X.Howard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jacoby BrissettRavensQ3 14:20(14:20) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett sacked at MIA 16 for -8 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston) [50-J.Houston], recovered by MIA-74-L.Eichenberg at MIA 15. MIA-14-J.Brissett was injured during the play.
8.9pts
Albert WilsonDolphinsQ4 3:29(3:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 2-A.Wilson to BAL 11 for 64 yards (36-C.Clark) [93-C.Campbell].
15.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — -0.02 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Ravens182 of 193 plays carry both curves
(11:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 14-S.Watkins to 50 for 8 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at BAL 49. 25-X.Howard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.0 for DolphinsExpected points +8.00 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 13 points higher than the market did.play 140
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:40BAL +19% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 14-S.Watkins to 50 for 8 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at BAL 49. 25-X.Howard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:29MIA +16% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 2-A.Wilson to BAL 11 for 64 yards (36-C.Clark) [93-C.Campbell].
3rd · 14:20BAL +9% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett sacked at MIA 16 for -8 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston) [50-J.Houston], recovered by MIA-74-L.Eichenberg at MIA 15. MIA-14-J.Brissett was injured during the play.
3rd · 2:21BAL +9% win prob(2:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 27 for -7 yards (8-J.Holland).
3rd · 0:20MIA +9% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle to BAL 25 for 35 yards (21-B.Stephens).
3rd · 8:11MIA +8% win prob(8:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 12-R.Bateman to MIA 40 for 9 yards (24-By.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 22-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:53Justin Tucker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+33–0
2nd6:22Jason Sanders·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+33–3
2nd0:05Jason Sanders·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+33–6
4th12:38Jason Sanders·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+33–9
4th11:40Xavien Howard·49-yd defense TD49-yard touchdownthe defense scored itthe defense scored it · two-point no good+63–15
Dolphins ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Ravens: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.06Dolphins: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Ravens: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.02Dolphins: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Ravens: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.13Dolphins: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 67 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 61 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 2, Dolphins 4.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's sack or hit rate, 31.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 7.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.6% in week 4.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 9 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.2 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 22 pts
off script — got home · +16.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+2.30× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Dolphins12.5%
inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.0%, 16.8 points above their season mean of 14.1% and 2.3 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 14-S.Watkins to 50 for 8 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at BAL 49. 25-X.Howard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:40 · Ravens · 3rd & 10 at BAL 42 · gained 7 · -8.00 EP · −13.5% win probability
180 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 99 yards from the BAL 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
36%
Yards
654
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR44-0.1468%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.3288%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.2750%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.1150%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR9+0.0678%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Ravens3Dolphins0
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Dolphins 23
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 45
No good8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Dolphins 30
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 28
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 42 to the Dolphins 47
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 22
Ravens3Dolphins3
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Ravens 5
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 36
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 24
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 45
Ravens3Dolphins6
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Ravens 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from midfield to the Dolphins 39
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 5 to the Dolphins 19
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 46 to the Dolphins 40
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 26
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to midfield
4th quarter68 plays
Ravens3Dolphins9
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 1
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Ravens3Dolphins15
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 42
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 36
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Ravens 43
Ravens9Dolphins15
Ravens10Dolphins15
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 1 to the Dolphins 5
Ravens10Dolphins21
Ravens10Dolphins22
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Ravens 1
Intercepted11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Dolphins 7
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ravenscategory by categoryDolphins
Ravens3
Dolphins0
