2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

New York Jets

BUF -13 ✓O 47 ✓Bills closed -13 and covered, winning by 28.

Buffalo Bills 45–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:30, NYJ +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:30BUF — NYJ BUF ball · 1st & 10BUF 89%

(13:30) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 17 yards (43-D.Phillips; 57-C.Mosley).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:30NYJ +5% win prob(13:30) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 17 yards (43-D.Phillips; 57-C.Mosley).
Q2 · 1:53NYJ +4% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 57 yards (26-B.Echols).
Q2 · 1:57NYJ +2% win prob(1:57) 6-M.Ammendola 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q2 · 0:57NYJ +2% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-Q.Williams].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Jets
Offensive plays	51	70
Total yards	493 (edge)	366
Yards per play	9.7 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	0.46 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	61% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	61%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.61 (edge)	-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	4/7 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	6

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

21/28, 366 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

19.0 expected points added · +16.8% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Mike WhiteQB

24/44, 251 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-12.2 expected points added · -11.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

7 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

16 att, 39 yds, 1 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

8/13 for 162 yds, 1 TD

46% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

3/3 for 105 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 10	5	4	0:50	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 42	6	58	1:55	Touchdown
3	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	21	2:58	Interception
4	BUF	NYJ 43	9	33	3:55	Turnover on downs
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	5	1:57	Punt
6	BUF	NYJ 40	4	1	2:43	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 16	8	49	4:51	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 4	10	36	5:25	Punt
9	NYJ	NYJ 23	8	42	3:33	Fumble
10	BUF	BUF 25	7	80	1:00	Touchdown
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	42	0:44	Fumble
12	BUF	BUF 27	1	0	0:09	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 25	7	75	2:59	Touchdown
14	NYJ	NYJ 17	2	0	0:14	Interception
15	BUF	BUF 36	3	64	1:00	Touchdown
16	NYJ	NYJ 12	6	36	2:28	Interception
17	BUF	NYJ 45	5	45	2:18	Touchdown
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	49	4:53	Interception
19	BUF	BUF 1	2	20	0:36	Interception
20	NYJ	BUF 35	12	40	3:34	Touchdown
21	BUF	BUF 38	3	13	1:01	Fumble
22	NYJ	NYJ 32	7	30	2:47	Turnover on downs
23	BUF	BUF 43	5	57	2:18	Touchdown
24	NYJ	NYJ 32	10	48	3:44	Touchdown
25	BUF	BUF 25	5	11	2:08	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	21/28	366	2	1	2	19.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	7	43	6.1	1	2.0
Matt Breida	3	28	9.3	1	-1.3
Zack Moss	7	27	3.9	1	-0.9
Emmanuel Sanders	1	24	24.0	0	1.5
Isaiah McKenzie	2	17	8.5	1	3.3
Josh Allen	2	3	1.5	0	-0.1
Davis Webb	2	-3	-1.5	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	8	13	162	1	46%	7.6
Gabe Davis	3	3	105	0	11%	8.4
Emmanuel Sanders	2	2	27	0	7%	2.5
Matt Breida	3	3	22	1	11%	1.7
Dawson Knox	1	1	17	0	4%	1.1
Cole Beasley	2	2	15	0	7%	1.0
Isaiah McKenzie	1	3	12	0	11%	0.0
Devin Singletary	1	1	6	0	4%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jordan Poyer	3	6	1	2
Matt Milano	3	5	0	1
A.J. Klein	5	1	0	1
Micah Hyde	4	1	0	1
Tre'Davious White	2	2	1	1
Taron Johnson	4	0	1	1
Harrison Phillips	3	0	0	0
Dane Jackson	3	0	0	0
Carlos Basham	1	2	0	0
Siran Neal	2	0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mike White	24/44	251	0	4	1	-12.2
Joe Flacco	3/3	47	1	0	0	5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Michael Carter	16	39	2.4	1	-3.3
Tevin Coleman	4	29	7.3	0	0.7
Ty Johnson	2	2	1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	5	7	93	0	15%	-1.9
Elijah Moore	3	6	44	1	13%	-0.4
Michael Carter	4	6	43	0	13%	0.6
Ty Johnson	5	8	36	0	17%	-0.5
Ryan Griffin	1	2	21	0	4%	1.3
Jamison Crowder	3	5	20	0	11%	0.1
Braxton Berrios	3	3	19	0	7%	1.6
Keelan Cole	1	6	18	0	13%	-7.4
Tevin Coleman	2	3	4	0	7%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
C.J. Mosley	4	2	0.0	0
Brandin Echols	3	2	0.0	0
Michael Carter	3	1	0.0	1
Bryce Hall	3	0	0.0	0
Ashtyn Davis	2	1	0.0	0
Jarrad Davis	1	1	0.0	0
Del'Shawn Phillips	1	1	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	0	2	0.5	0
Javelin Guidry	2	0	0.0	0
Jarrod Wilson	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -13
Closing total: 47
BUF moneyline: -685
NYJ moneyline: +527

Bills closed -13 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 47; the game landed 62 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: BUF 7 days · NYJ 10 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.