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DYNATYZE
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Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Bills168 of 174 plays carry both curves
(13:30) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 17 yards (43-D.Phillips; 57-C.Mosley).
Swing −4.9 for JetsExpected points −1.13 for JetsThe model had Jets 35 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:30NYJ +5% win prob(13:30) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 17 yards (43-D.Phillips; 57-C.Mosley).
2nd · 1:53NYJ +4% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 57 yards (26-B.Echols).
2nd · 1:57NYJ +2% win prob(1:57) 6-M.Ammendola 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
2nd · 0:57NYJ +2% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-Q.Williams].
1st · 12:22NYJ +2% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 22-M.Breida for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00BUF +2% win prob2-T.Bass kicks 63 yards from BUF 35 to NYJ 2. 23-T.Coleman to NYJ 35 for 33 yards (30-D.Jackson). PENALTY on NYJ-10-B.Berrios, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Breida's 15-yard touchdown catch with 12:22 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th2:14Elijah Moore·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+745–17
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryJets
Bills8–1Jets
493Total yards366
9.7Yards per play5.2
61%Success rate39%
57%Third-down rate31%
6Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays6
26First downs19
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers6
The read
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.46Bills: +0.46 expected points added per play
−0.17Jets: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.61Bills: +0.61 expected points added per play
−0.19Jets: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Bills: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.12Jets: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 51 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Jets’s 70 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Bills 7, Jets 2.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.46 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 81.6% in week 9 against 54.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Jets12.9%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NYJ's pass rate over expected, -4.0 pts against a season mean of 0.3 pts — and NYJ swings 6.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+10% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 57 yards (26-B.Echols).
Q2 1:53 · Bills · 1st & 15 at BUF 20 · gained 57 · +3.71 EP · +9.9% win probability
166 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 80 yards from the BUF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
44%
Yards
855
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1576%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.6885%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR14+0.0971%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.0662%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4230%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.6140%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-1.3420%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 14
Bills6Jets0
Bills7Jets0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Jets 15
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 36
Bills10Jets0
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 10
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 31
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Bills 45
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 4 to the Bills 48
Bills10Jets3
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Bills 28
Bills16Jets3
Bills17Jets3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 12
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 39
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Bills23Jets3
Bills24Jets3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 8
Intercepted2 plays
Bills30Jets3
Bills31Jets3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Jets 15
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 48
Bills37Jets3
Bills38Jets3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Jets 1
Intercepted9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bills 26
Intercepted2 plays, from the Bills 1 to the Bills 21
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter46 plays
Bills38Jets9
Bills38Jets10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Bills 1
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 45
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Bills 36
Bills44Jets10
Bills45Jets10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Jets 2
Bills45Jets16
Bills45Jets17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Bills 15
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -13
Closing total
47
Bills moneyline
-685
Jets moneyline
+527
Bills closed -13 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 47; the game landed 62 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 47°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Bills 7 days · Jets 10 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Robert Saleh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 3:56
NYJ +1% win prob
(3:56) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 86-R.Griffin to NYJ 49 for 21 yards (24-T.Johnson).
1st · 9:24BUF +1% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle intended for 88-K.Cole INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson (93-E.Obada) at NYJ 47. 24-T.Johnson to NYJ 43 for 4 yards (23-T.Coleman).
Billscategory by categoryJets
Bills6
Jets0
