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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q1 6:37, 1st and 10, on Donte Jackson — 9.0 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:37, Panthers +9.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:37 · 1st and 10
Donte Jackson
Panthers
(6:37) 12-C.McCoy pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Wesley INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at CAR 13. 26-D.Jackson to CAR 34 for 21 yards (4-R.Moore).
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.58 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.61 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 4 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(6:37) 12-C.McCoy pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Wesley INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at CAR 13. 26-D.Jackson to CAR 34 for 21 yards (4-R.Moore).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cam Newton's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 11:18 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryCardinals
Panthers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 70 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 53 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Cardinals 2.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.58.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ARI's sack or hit rate, 8.8%, is past their previous low of 10.3% in week 8 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 44.0% in week 9 against 67.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-1.9 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 69 snaps
Cardinals-4.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 0.2 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 85%
Tendencies room →Panthers43.6%leaned — ran early · −13.1 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 55 early downs
Cardinals67.6%inside their normal wobble · +11.2 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Panthers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.4%.
Cardinals66.7%inside their normal wobble · +19.0 vs their 47.6%, and they swing ±25.5 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Panthers23.5%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Cardinals8.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
ARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.8%, 7.6 points below their season mean of 16.4% and 1.5 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
22/29, 167 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
5.4 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
11/20, 107 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-15.4 expected points added · -12.6% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
10/10 for 66 yds, 0 TD
31% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Cam Newton banked 4.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 26.1 | +1.7 | 59% | 74% | 31% | 23% | 13 car, 95 yd · 10/10, 66 yd |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 15.4 | +3.9 | 82% | 79% | 14% | 3% | 10 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 25 yd |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Featured Receiver | 13.7 | +1.6 | 68% | 74% | 19% | 15% | 4/6, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.8 | +2.2 | 85% | 88% | 28% | 23% | 7/8, 58 yd |
| Cam NewtonQB | 11.7 | +4.0 | 12% | — | 0% | — | 3/4, 8 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Ameer AbdullahRB · Receiving Back | 9.1 | −2.5 | 21% | 17% | 13% | 0% | 9 car, 24 yd · 4/4, 27 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 8.7 | +1.7 | 21% | 9% | 0% | — | 9 car, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach ErtzTE · Featured Receiver | 8.6 | −0.4 | 82% | 82% | 21% | 27% | 4/6, 46 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 6.4 | −4.0 | 79% | 94% | 22% | 29% | 4/7, 24 yd |
| P.J. WalkerQB · Starter QB | 5.3 | −6.6 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 22/29, 167 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 6 yd |
| Brandon ZylstraWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +0.7 | 44% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −3.6 | 33% | 32% | 14% | 17% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/4, 10 yd |
| Eno BenjaminRB | 2.2 | −2.3 | 27% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 6 car, 22 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.9 | 24% | 31% | 6% | 31% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Chris StrevelerQB | 1.8 | −2.4 | 40% | — | 0% | — | 6/9, 36 yd · 2 car, 4 yd |
| A.J. GreenWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −6.9 | 69% | 74% | 17% | 20% | 1/5, 4 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.1 | 68% | 63% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Colt McCoyQB · Starter QB | 0.2 | −6.3 | 60% | — | 0% | — | 11/20, 107 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Darrell DanielsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 31% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Antoine WesleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 76% | 79% | 3% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 37% | 26% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Alex EricksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy sacked at ARI 25 for -7 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick) [43-H.Reddick], RECOVERED by CAR-91-M.Fox at ARI 18. 91-M.Fox to ARI 15 for 3 yards (12-C.McCoy).
Q1 13:41 · Cardinals · 3rd & 5 at ARI 32 · lost 14 · -5.95 EP · −14.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers6
Cardinals0Panthers7Cardinals0Panthers13Cardinals0Panthers14Cardinals0Panthers17Cardinals0Panthers20Cardinals0Panthers23Cardinals0Panthers23Cardinals3Panthers29Cardinals3Panthers31Cardinals3Panthers31Cardinals9Panthers31Cardinals10Panthers34Cardinals10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Walker | 22/29 | 167 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +5.4 |
| Cam Newton | 3/4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 95 | 7.3 | 0 | +5.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 1 | −2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 10 | 66 | 0 | 31% | +4.6 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaq Thompson | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Carter |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 11/20 | 107 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −15.4 |
| Chris Streveler | 6/9 | 36 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_CAR_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cardinals closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 44 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| Ameer Abdullah | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 | +1.9 |
| P.J. Walker | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −5.3 |
| 19% |
| +1.7 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 13% | +0.9 |
| D.J. Moore | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 22% | −1.2 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +1.4 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Terrace Marshall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.6 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| A.J. Bouye | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Chandler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| −4.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Chris Streveler | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Colt McCoy | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 8 | 58 | 0 | 28% | +2.3 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 21% | +2.9 |
| James Conner | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 14% | −1.7 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 14% | −2.5 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17% | −3.2 |
| Eno Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Antoine Wesley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −5.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Thompson | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Phillips | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Budda Baker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Dogbe | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Alford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Vallejo | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
