2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · State Farm Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -7 upsetO 42 ✓DomeCardinals closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:37, CAR +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:37CAR — ARI ARI ball · 1st & 10CAR 59%

(6:37) 12-C.McCoy pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Wesley INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at CAR 13. 26-D.Jackson to CAR 34 for 21 yards (4-R.Moore).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:37CAR +9% win prob(6:37) 12-C.McCoy pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Wesley INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at CAR 13. 26-D.Jackson to CAR 34 for 21 yards (4-R.Moore).
Q1 · 13:41CAR +8% win prob(13:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy sacked at ARI 25 for -7 yards (43-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (43-H.Reddick) [43-H.Reddick], RECOVERED by CAR-91-M.Fox at ARI 18. 91-M.Fox to ARI 15 for 3 yards (12-C.McCoy).
Q1 · 12:45ARI +8% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey to ARI 1 for 13 yards (34-J.Thompson) [55-C.Jones].
Q1 · 9:58CAR +7% win prob(9:58) 12-C.McCoy up the middle to ARI 41 for -1 yards (4-J.Carter; 97-Y.Gross-Matos).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	70	53
Total yards	343 (edge)	169
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	0.00 (edge)	-0.58
Success rate	49% (edge)	28%
Dropback rate	49%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.61
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.53
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	2

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.58.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

P.J. WalkerQB

22/29, 167 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

5.4 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Colt McCoyQB

11/20, 107 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-15.4 expected points added · -12.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

13 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

10 att, 39 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

10/10 for 66 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

7/8 for 58 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 27	4	-9	1:26	Fumble
2	CAR	ARI 15	6	15	2:22	Touchdown
3	ARI	ARI 33	5	3	1:21	Turnover on downs
4	CAR	ARI 41	5	41	1:12	Touchdown
5	ARI	ARI 25	7	44	2:14	Interception
6	CAR	CAR 34	9	50	5:25	Turnover on downs
7	ARI	ARI 25	7	10	1:11	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 19	10	51	5:09	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 25	5	9	2:07	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 35	5	39	3:18	Interception
11	ARI	ARI 32	4	5	0:59	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 16	12	53	3:16	Turnover on downs
13	CAR	CAR 23	5	8	2:13	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 25	7	46	2:45	Turnover on downs
15	CAR	CAR 25	10	44	4:28	Touchdown
16	ARI	ARI 25	5	-4	2:17	Turnover on downs
17	CAR	CAR 49	2	2	0:46	Fumble
18	ARI	CAR 40	4	9	1:46	Turnover on downs
19	CAR	CAR 35	4	-2	1:53	Punt
20	ARI	ARI 29	12	56	4:33	Touchdown
21	CAR	ARI 45	11	36	5:53	Turnover on downs
22	ARI	ARI 25	5	-9	1:17	Punt
23	CAR	CAR 36	4	6	1:47	Punt
24	ARI	ARI 11	1	9	0:22	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 56 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
P.J. Walker	22/29	167	0	1	0	5.4
Cam Newton	3/4	8	1	0	0	-0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	13	95	7.3	0	5.0
Chuba Hubbard	9	27	3.0	1	-2.0
Ameer Abdullah	9	24	2.7	0	-3.6
Cam Newton	3	14	4.7	1	1.9
P.J. Walker	3	6	2.0	0	-5.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	10	10	66	0	31%	4.6
Robbie Chosen	4	6	37	1	19%	1.7
Ameer Abdullah	4	4	27	0	13%	0.9
D.J. Moore	4	7	24	0	22%	-1.2
Brandon Zylstra	2	2	18	0	6%	1.4
Tommy Tremble	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Terrace Marshall	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Thompson	4	3	1.0	0	2
Myles Hartsfield	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jermaine Carter	2	3	0.0	0	0
Haason Reddick	2	2	1.5	0	0
Donte Jackson	3	1	0.0	1	2
A.J. Bouye	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Chinn	3	0	0.0	0	0
Marquis Haynes	1	1	1.0	0	0
Sean Chandler	1	1	0.0	0	0
Derrick Brown	1	1	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Colt McCoy	11/20	107	0	1	2	-15.4
Chris Streveler	6/9	36	0	0	2	-4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	10	39	3.9	1	1.1
Eno Benjamin	6	22	3.7	0	-2.9
Chris Streveler	2	4	2.0	0	-5.1
Rondale Moore	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5
Colt McCoy	1	-1	-1.0	0	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	7	8	58	28%	2.3
Zach Ertz	4	6	46	21%	2.9
James Conner	3	4	25	14%	-1.7
Rondale Moore	2	4	10	14%	-2.5
A.J. Green	1	5	4	17%	-3.2
Eno Benjamin	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Antoine Wesley	0	1	0	3%	-5.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jalen Thompson	4	4	1	1
Isaiah Simmons	4	4	0	0
Jordan Hicks	5	2	0	1
Zach Allen	4	1	0	0
Jordan Phillips	4	0	0	1
Budda Baker	2	2	0	0
Byron Murphy	3	1	0	0
Michael Dogbe	2	2	0	0
Robert Alford	3	0	0	0
Tanner Vallejo	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -7
Closing total: 42
CAR moneyline: +280
ARI moneyline: -329

Cardinals closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 44 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CAR 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Kliff Kingsbury