2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Gillette Stadium

Cleveland Browns

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -2.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓Patriots closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 38.

New England Patriots 45–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:57, CLE +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 14:57CLE — NE CLE ball · 3rd & 7NE 59%

(14:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at CLE 42. 23-K.Dugger pushed ob at CLE 5 for 37 yards (10-A.Schwartz).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 14:57CLE +12% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at CLE 42. 23-K.Dugger pushed ob at CLE 5 for 37 yards (10-A.Schwartz).
Q1 · 1:54NE +8% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-B.Bolden to CLE 3 for 20 yards (22-G.Delpit).
Q1 · 10:09NE +7% win prob(10:09) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:46NE +7% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Patriots
Offensive plays	58	60
Total yards	217	454 (edge)
Yards per play	3.7	7.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.18	0.50 (edge)
Success rate	40%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.85 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	1/11	7/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	13 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

19/23, 198 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.2 expected points added · +18.8% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Case KeenumQB

8/12, 81 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.3 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

20 att, 100 yds, 2 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

D'Ernest JohnsonRB

19 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

4/4 for 98 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

D'Ernest JohnsonRB

7/8 for 58 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 16	13	79	4:55	Touchdown
2	NE	NE 17	17	93	9:39	Touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 29	4	3	0:38	Interception
4	NE	CLE 5	2	5	0:05	Touchdown
5	CLE	CLE 12	7	23	2:52	Punt
6	NE	NE 1	12	99	6:11	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 33	5	-5	1:52	Punt
8	NE	NE 33	11	50	3:31	Turnover on downs
9	CLE	CLE 23	2	-9	0:17	End of half
10	NE	NE 27	5	-7	1:27	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 14	6	19	3:23	Punt
12	NE	NE 8	9	92	5:06	Touchdown
13	CLE	CLE 27	10	5	3:32	Turnover on downs
14	NE	CLE 47	7	32	2:59	Touchdown
15	CLE	CLE 19	16	81	5:18	Turnover on downs
16	NE	NE 5	7	90	4:02	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 26	8	21	3:11	Punt
18	NE	NE 20	2	0	1:02	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 99 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	8/12	81	0	0	3	-4.3
Baker Mayfield	11/21	73	1	1	2	-5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Ernest Johnson	19	99	5.2	0	-0.5
Johnny Stanton	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D'Ernest Johnson	7	8	58	0	26%	2.3
Jarvis Landry	4	5	26	0	16%	-1.7
Austin Hooper	4	5	25	1	16%	5.3
Harrison Bryant	2	2	18	0	6%	1.0
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	5	16	0	16%	-0.2
David Njoku	1	4	11	0	13%	-4.0
Anthony Schwartz	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5
Rashard Higgins	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Anthony Walker	7	1
Mack Wilson	5	1
Sione Takitaki	2	3
Troy Hill	3	2
Ronnie Harrison	2	2
Grant Delpit	3	1
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	3	1
Denzel Ward	2	0
Tommy Togiai	1	1
Greg Newsome	2	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	19/23	198	3	0	2	16.2
Brian Hoyer	3/3	85	1	0	0	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	20	100	5.0	2	3.1
Kendrick Bourne	3	43	14.3	0	3.5
Brandon Bolden	3	32	10.7	0	1.7
J.J. Taylor	6	11	1.8	0	-2.5
Brian Hoyer	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	4	4	98	1	16%	9.0
Jakobi Meyers	4	4	49	1	16%	7.0
Brandon Bolden	3	3	38	0	12%	3.8
Hunter Henry	4	4	37	2	16%	7.4
N'Keal Harry	1	1	26	0	4%	2.1
Nelson Agholor	2	4	21	0	16%	0.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	4	5	14	0	20%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	5	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Van Noy	5	0	1.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	3	1	0.0	1	1
Christian Barmore	2	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	2	0.0	0	1
Calvin Munson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	2	1	0.0	0	1
Dont'a Hightower	1	2	0.5	0	0
Brandon King	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2.5
Closing total: 45.5
CLE moneyline: +119
NE moneyline: -132

Patriots closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 38.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 52 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: CLE 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Bill Belichick