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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q2 14:57, 3rd and 7, on Kyle Dugger — 11.8 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 45–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:57, Patriots +11.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:57 · 3rd and 7
Kyle Dugger
Patriots
(14:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at CLE 42. 23-K.Dugger pushed ob at CLE 5 for 37 yards (10-A.Schwartz).
11.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 7 of 9 on third down, against Browns at 1 of 11 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Browns at 3 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.85 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.50 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 3 points apart.
(14:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at CLE 42. 23-K.Dugger pushed ob at CLE 5 for 37 yards (10-A.Schwartz).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rhamondre Stevenson's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 14:48 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.85 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 58 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Patriots’s 60 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Browns 2, Patriots 7.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-3.3 ptsright on their number · +1.5 vs their -4.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 58 snaps
Patriots-7.4 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Browns55.8%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 43 early downs
Patriots39.2%inside their normal wobble · −11.0 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -51% to 130%
Fourth Down room →Browns33.3%right on their number · −12.0 vs their 45.4%, and they swing ±32.8 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 38%
Tendencies room →Browns7.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Patriots21.1%inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NE's sack or hit rate, 21.1% against a season mean of 13.9% — and NE swings 7.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
19/23, 198 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
16.2 expected points added · +18.8% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
8/12, 81 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-4.3 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
7/8 for 58 yds, 0 TD
26% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kendrick Bourne banked 13.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 27.4 | −1.0 | 55% | 39% | 20% | 0% | 20 car, 100 yd, 2 TD · 4/5, 14 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 24.1 | +13.3 | 43% | 68% | 16% | 24% | 3 car, 43 yd · 4/4, 98 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.7 | +2.3 | 88% | 87% | 26% | 4% | 19 car, 99 yd · 7/8, 58 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 19.9 | +4.9 | 87% | — | 0% | — | 19/23, 198 yd, 3 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 19.7 | +8.8 | 82% | 86% | 16% | 20% | 4/4, 37 yd, 2 TD |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.9 | +8.4 | 72% | 82% | 16% | 19% | 4/4, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.5 | +2.8 | 63% | 63% | 16% | 9% | 4/5, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandon BoldenRB · Receiving Back | 10.0 | +3.6 | 27% | 46% | 12% | 0% | 3 car, 32 yd · 3/3, 38 yd |
| Brian HoyerQB | 7.2 | +6.0 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 3/3, 85 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | 0.0 | 80% | 87% | 16% | 3% | 4/5, 26 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 4.9 | −7.2 | 61% | — | 0% | — | 11/21, 73 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −3.3 | 70% | 86% | 16% | 32% | 2/4, 21 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +0.6 | 39% | 39% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| N'Keal HarryTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +1.9 | 52% | 36% | 4% | 13% | 1/1, 26 yd |
| Case KeenumQB | 3.2 | −1.1 | 39% | — | 0% | — | 8/12, 81 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −7.7 | 85% | 87% | 16% | 30% | 1/5, 16 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −7.0 | 59% | 63% | 13% | 15% | 1/4, 11 yd |
| J.J. TaylorRB | 1.1 | −1.9 | 19% | 14% | 0% | — | 6 car, 11 yd |
| Johnny StantonRB | 0.0 | −2.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Rashard HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 44% | 42% | 3% | 19% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Anthony SchwartzWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 15% | 16% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| JoJo NatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Matt SlaterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at CLE 42. 23-K.Dugger pushed ob at CLE 5 for 37 yards (10-A.Schwartz).
Q2 14:57 · Browns · 3rd & 7 at CLE 32 · gained nothing · -6.03 EP · −13.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 99 yards from the NE 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns6
Patriots0Browns7Patriots0Browns7Patriots6Browns7Patriots7Browns7Patriots13Browns7Patriots14Browns7Patriots20Browns7Patriots21Browns7Patriots24Browns7Patriots30Browns7Patriots31Browns7Patriots37Browns7Patriots38Browns7Patriots44Browns7Patriots45Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 8/12 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −4.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | 11/21 | 73 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 19 | 99 | 5.2 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Johnny Stanton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest Johnson | 7 | 8 | 58 | 0 | 26% | +2.3 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Walker | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Takitaki |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 19/23 | 198 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +16.2 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3/3 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_CLE_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 38.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 52 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 16% |
| −1.7 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 16% | +5.3 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +1.0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 16% | −0.2 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −4.0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Troy Hill | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Togiai | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| +7.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 2 | +3.1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | +1.7 |
| J.J. Taylor | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 4 | 98 | 1 | 16% | +9.0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 16% | +7.0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 12% | +3.8 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 16% | +7.4 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 4% | +2.1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 16% | +0.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 20% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Barmore | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Calvin Munson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon King | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
