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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Detroit Lions 16 at Pittsburgh Steelers 16. Final.
Steelers -9 upsetU 43 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 10
Lions and Steelers finished level at 16, a tie.
It turned at OT 1:47, 4th and 23 — 66.5 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
Steelers closed -9 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
A 16–16 tie. Biggest swing: OT 1:47, Lions +66.5% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 1:47 · 4th and 23
Unnamed on the sheet
Lions
(1:47) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on PIT-54-U.Gilbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 21.
66.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSteelersOT 2:36(2:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to DET 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond ran ob at DET 45 for 18 yards (41-R.Spillane).
47.4pts
Pat FreiermuthSteelersOT 0:15(:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth to DET 38 for 1 yard (25-W.Harris). FUMBLES (25-W.Harris), RECOVERED by DET-90-T.Flowers at DET 38.
56.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Steelers at 6 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 17 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 18 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Lions198 of 212 plays carry both curves
(1:47) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on PIT-54-U.Gilbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 21.
Swing −66.5 for SteelersExpected points −0.26 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 197
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:47PIT +67% win prob(1:47) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on PIT-54-U.Gilbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 21.
Overtime · 0:15PIT +56% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth to DET 38 for 1 yard (25-W.Harris). FUMBLES (25-W.Harris), RECOVERED by DET-90-T.Flowers at DET 38.
Overtime · 2:36PIT +47% win prob(2:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to DET 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond ran ob at DET 45 for 18 yards (41-R.Spillane).
Overtime · 0:08PIT +46% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 11-K.Raymond to 50 for 12 yards. Lateral to 17-T.Benson to PIT 42 for 8 yards. Lateral to 32-D.Swift pushed ob at PIT 40 for 2 yards (56-A.Highsmith).
Overtime · 7:59DET +25% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at 50 for -9 yards (97-C.Heyward). Penalty on DET-68-T.Decker, Offensive Holding, declined.
Overtime · 4:21DET +24% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Neither side got further than 7 clear, and 7 scores later it was still level.
2nd4:25Chris Boswell·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+37–10
2nd0:02Ryan Santoso·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+310–10
3rd12:19Godwin Igwebuike·42-yd TD run42-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+616–10
3rd8:29Chris Boswell·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+316–13
4th11:36Chris Boswell·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+316–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categorySteelers
Lions2–7Steelers
306Total yards388
4.5Yards per play4.8
28%Success rate40%
22%Third-down rate41%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays6
15First downs21
4Sacks taken0
0Turnovers3
The read
Steelers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Lions: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.13Steelers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.42Lions: −0.42 expected points added per play
−0.18Steelers: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Lions: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.06Steelers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 68 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Steelers’s 80 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Steelers 3.
NoteSteelers outgained Lions 388-306 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−3.0σtheir own normal+3.0σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, −25.7 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 6.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −8.3 pts in week 7.
2.6 times their own weekly swing below their number.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · −2.6σ from their own normal
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
DET's early-down pass rate, 37.5%, is past their previous low of 52.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.63× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Steelers20.7%
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -25.7 pts, 20.2 points below their season mean of -5.5 pts and 2.6 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Fox punts+67% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:47) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on PIT-54-U.Gilbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 21.
OT 1:47 · Lions · 4th & 23 at DET 32 · gained nothing · +0.26 EP · +66.5% win probability
196 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 212 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 212 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 85 yards from the DET 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
212 of 212 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
212
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
33%
Yards
693
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.2275%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.3767%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR24+0.1617%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1835%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.3940%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
212 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
212 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Lions0Steelers6
Lions0Steelers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Lions 9
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 21
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 15 to the Lions 24
Intercepted6 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Lions 43
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
Lions6Steelers7
Lions7Steelers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 28
Lions7Steelers10
Field goal18 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Lions 2
Lions10Steelers10
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Steelers 2
3rd quarter44 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Lions16Steelers10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 15 to the Steelers 42
Lions16Steelers13
Field goal15 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Lions 5
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Steelers 39
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 19
4th quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Lions16Steelers16
Field goal7 plays, from midfield to the Lions 33
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 36
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Steelers 48
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 48 to the Lions 45
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 45
The period ended2 plays
Overtime40 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Steelers 41
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Steelers 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Steelers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerOnePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Lions 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -9
Closing total
43
Lions moneyline
+303
Steelers moneyline
-359
Steelers closed -9 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 32 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 38°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south-west; 0.07 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Lions 14 days · Steelers 6 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Mike Tomlin
(4:21) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to PIT 25 for 3 yards (42-J.Pierre). PENALTY on DET-88-T.Hockenson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 28 - No Play.
Overtime · 4:15PIT +23% win prob(4:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 11-K.Raymond to PIT 30 for 8 yards (56-A.Highsmith).
Overtime · 7:42PIT +23% win prob(7:42) 3-J.Fox punts 33 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-27-B.Price.
Lionscategory by categorySteelers
Lions0
Steelers6
