2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Heinz Field

Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -9 upsetU 43 ✓Steelers closed -9 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

A 16–16 tie. Biggest swing: OT 1:47, PIT +67% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 1:47DET — PIT DET ball · 4th & 23PIT 90%

(1:47) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on PIT-54-U.Gilbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 21.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 1:47PIT +67% win prob(1:47) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on PIT-54-U.Gilbert, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 21.
OT · 0:15PIT +56% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth to DET 38 for 1 yard (25-W.Harris). FUMBLES (25-W.Harris), RECOVERED by DET-90-T.Flowers at DET 38.
OT · 2:36PIT +47% win prob(2:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to DET 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond ran ob at DET 45 for 18 yards (41-R.Spillane).
OT · 0:08PIT +46% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 11-K.Raymond to 50 for 12 yards. Lateral to 17-T.Benson to PIT 42 for 8 yards. Lateral to 32-D.Swift pushed ob at PIT 40 for 2 yards (56-A.Highsmith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Steelers
Offensive plays	68	80
Total yards	306	388 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	4.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.11 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	28%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	43%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.42	-0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	4/18	7/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	15	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Steelers outgained Lions 388–306 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Mason RudolphQB

30/50, 242 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.4 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

14/25, 114 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-12.2 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

33 att, 130 yds, 0 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

26 att, 105 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

7/13 for 83 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -4.2 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Ray-Ray McCloudWR

9/12 for 63 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 17	12	54	5:20	Touchdown
2	DET	DET 16	5	10	1:39	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 40	4	6	1:24	Punt
4	DET	DET 15	4	9	2:10	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 28	6	27	2:48	Interception
6	DET	DET 48	4	0	1:19	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 20	4	6	1:09	Punt
8	DET	PIT 39	4	39	1:28	Touchdown
9	PIT	PIT 25	14	78	8:21	Turnover on downs
10	DET	DET 31	13	67	4:22	Turnover on downs
11	DET	DET 15	8	85	2:51	Touchdown
12	PIT	PIT 26	14	54	3:43	Turnover on downs
13	DET	DET 33	8	28	3:54	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 20	7	21	2:44	Punt
15	DET	DET 18	4	0	1:56	Punt
16	PIT	50	6	27	3:21	Turnover on downs
17	DET	DET 25	9	6	4:22	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 29	6	19	2:42	Punt
19	DET	DET 13	4	-11	1:05	Punt
20	PIT	DET 48	4	3	1:00	Punt
21	DET	DET 20	9	25	2:03	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 22	1	0	0:19	Turnover on downs
23	DET	DET 26	6	24	2:28	Punt
24	PIT	PIT 17	2	38	0:50	Fumble
25	DET	DET 45	5	15	2:39	Turnover on downs
26	PIT	PIT 38	4	4	1:38	Punt
27	DET	DET 45	4	-13	0:48	Punt
28	PIT	PIT 11	10	51	1:29	Fumble
29	DET	DET 38	1	22	0:08	End of game

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	14/25	114	0	0	4	-12.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	33	130	3.9	0	-5.8
Godwin Igwebuike	2	56	28.0	1	4.9
Jermar Jefferson	3	41	13.7	1	4.0
Jason Cabinda	1	2	2.0	0	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	4	6	61	25%	3.2
Kalif Raymond	4	6	29	25%	-2.4
Trinity Benson	2	3	17	13%	-1.4
D'Andre Swift	3	6	5	25%	-3.6
Brock Wright	1	2	2	8%	-1.2
T.J. Hockenson	0	1	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Alex Anzalone	5	3	0
Amani Oruwariye	5	2	2
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	5	2	0
Tracy Walker III	5	0	0
A.J. Parker	3	2	1
Dean Marlowe	3	2	0
Charles Harris	2	3	0
Jalen Elliott	3	1	0
Levi Onwuzurike	1	3	0
Derrick Barnes	1	3	1

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mason Rudolph	30/50	242	1	1	0	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	26	105	4.0	0.1
Mason Rudolph	4	36	9.0	2.1
Benny Snell	1	4	4.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	7	13	83	0	27%	-4.2
Ray-Ray McCloud	9	12	63	0	24%	-0.8
Pat Freiermuth	5	9	31	0	18%	-3.4
Najee Harris	4	4	28	0	8%	1.6
James Washington	2	6	15	1	12%	-1.0
Eric Ebron	2	2	13	0	4%	-0.1
Derek Watt	1	1	9	0	2%	0.8
Kalen Ballage	0	2	0	0	4%	-4.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Joe Schobert	5	5	0.0	0
Devin Bush	5	4	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	5	3	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	2	3	0.0	0
Isaiah Buggs	2	3	0.0	0
James Pierre	2	3	0.0	0
Cameron Heyward	3	2	2.0	0
T.J. Watt	3	2	1.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	1	1.0	1
Taco Charlton	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -9
Closing total: 43
DET moneyline: +303
PIT moneyline: -359

Steelers closed -9 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 32 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: DET 14 days · PIT 6 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Mike Tomlin