2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -10.5 no coverU 47.5 ✓DomeColts closed -10.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Indianapolis Colts 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:02, JAX +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:02JAX — IND JAX ball · 1st & 10IND 84%

(1:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at IND 47 for -1 yards (sack split by 54-D.Odeyingbo and 99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo) [99-D.Buckner], RECOVERED by IND-57-K.Turay at IND 45.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:02JAX +15% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at IND 47 for -1 yards (sack split by 54-D.Odeyingbo and 99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo) [99-D.Buckner], RECOVERED by IND-57-K.Turay at IND 45.
Q1 · 8:32JAX +9% win prob(8:32) 9-L.Cooke punt is BLOCKED by 44-Z.Franklin, Center-46-R.Matiscik, RECOVERED by IND-45-E.Speed at JAX 12. 45-E.Speed for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:56IND +8% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep right to 11-M.Pittman ran ob at JAX 22 for 27 yards [96-A.Gotsis].
Q1 · 14:55IND +6% win prob(14:55) 28-J.Taylor right tackle pushed ob at JAX 34 for 34 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Colts
Offensive plays	63	59
Total yards	333 (edge)	298
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.05
Success rate	41% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	68%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	-0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	0.04
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	14	14
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Jaguars outgained Colts 333–298 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

22/34, 180 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-3.2 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

16/35, 162 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-6.6 expected points added · -18.3% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 116 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

12 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

5/5 for 71 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Dan ArnoldTE

5/8 for 67 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 32	11	63	5:03	Turnover on downs
2	JAX	JAX 23	5	6	1:34	Defensive touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 9	5	2	1:28	Punt
4	IND	IND 47	9	53	4:07	Touchdown
5	JAX	JAX 22	6	78	1:45	Touchdown
6	IND	IND 20	5	0	1:15	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 38	4	3	1:00	Punt
8	IND	IND 11	4	14	2:44	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 37	4	17	1:59	Punt
10	IND	IND 10	4	4	1:36	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 43	4	8	2:07	Punt
12	IND	IND 18	9	61	3:39	Turnover on downs
13	JAX	JAX 25	5	8	0:38	Punt
14	IND	IND 26	5	10	0:29	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 30	6	32	0:36	Turnover on downs
16	JAX	JAX 20	10	51	4:05	Turnover on downs
17	IND	IND 41	4	6	1:41	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 16	9	36	4:54	Punt
19	IND	IND 9	6	16	3:36	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 35	11	62	5:10	Touchdown
21	IND	IND 30	5	-3	2:10	Punt
22	JAX	JAX 23	4	1	0:56	Punt
23	IND	IND 17	11	74	5:06	Turnover on downs
24	JAX	JAX 25	7	29	1:32	Fumble
25	IND	IND 45	3	0	0:50	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 78 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	16/35	162	0	0	3	-6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jamal Agnew	3	79	26.3	1	6.1
James Robinson	12	57	4.8	1	1.6
Trevor Lawrence	5	33	6.6	0	0.4
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	6	3.0	0	-0.3
Carlos Hyde	2	4	2.0	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dan Arnold	5	8	67	23%	2.9
Marvin Jones	2	6	35	17%	1.5
James Robinson	4	5	27	14%	0.4
Laquon Treadwell	1	1	18	3%	2.8
Laviska Shenault Jr.	3	8	15	23%	-2.3
Jamal Agnew	0	5	0	14%	-5.2
Carlos Hyde	1	2	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Rayshawn Jenkins	5	2	0
Dawuane Smoot	3	2	0
Tyson Campbell	4	1	1
Malcom Brown	2	2	0
Damien Wilson	2	2	0
Myles Jack	3	0	0
Rudy Ford	2	1	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	0	1
Andrew Wingard	2	1	0
Adam Gotsis	2	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	22/34	180	0	0	1	-3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	21	116	5.5	1	0.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	12	6.0	0	0.4
Carson Wentz	4	-1	-0.3	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	5	5	71	15%	6.7
Jack Doyle	3	5	31	15%	1.9
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	4	17	12%	0.5
Ashton Dulin	1	1	16	3%	1.6
Kylen Granson	1	1	15	3%	1.8
Jonathan Taylor	6	8	10	24%	-6.1
Zach Pascal	2	2	9	6%	-1.3
Mo Alie-Cox	1	2	6	6%	-1.6
T.Y. Hilton	1	5	5	15%	-4.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Okereke	5	3	0.0	0
Andrew Sendejo	5	1	0.0	0
George Odum	5	1	0.0	0
Shaquille Leonard	2	2	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	3	1	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	3	1	0.0	3
Taylor Stallworth	3	0	1.0	0
Jahleel Addae	3	0	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	0	3	0.5	0
Ashton Dulin	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -10.5
Closing total: 47.5
JAX moneyline: +358
IND moneyline: -434

Colts closed -10.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 40 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: JAX 7 days · IND 10 days
Coaches: Urban Meyer vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.