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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q4 1:02, 1st and 10, on Trevor Lawrence — 15.1 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Indianapolis Colts 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 1:02, Colts +15.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:02 · 1st and 10
Trevor Lawrence
Colts
(1:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at IND 47 for -1 yards (sack split by 54-D.Odeyingbo and 99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo) [99-D.Buckner], RECOVERED by IND-57-K.Turay at IND 45.
15.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Colts at 3 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.24 expected points per carry, against Colts at +0.04 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 1 giveaway.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(1:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at IND 47 for -1 yards (sack split by 54-D.Odeyingbo and 99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo) [99-D.Buckner], RECOVERED by IND-57-K.Turay at IND 45.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Michael Badgley's 24-yard field goal with 10:01 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Michael Badgley24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+30–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryColts
Jaguars ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 63 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Colts’s 59 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Colts 4.
Jaguars outgained Colts 333-298 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 10.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.1 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-3.0 ptsright on their number · −1.0 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 62 snaps
Colts-0.8 ptsright on their number · +3.8 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 89%
Tendencies room →Jaguars61.7%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 59.6%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 47 early downs
Colts48.9%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 51.0%, and they swing ±14.9 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 122%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars0.0%leaned — took the kick · −35.5 vs their 35.5%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Colts0.0%leaned — took the kick · −51.7 vs their 51.7%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (−1.91× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Jaguars22.2%leaned — got home · +8.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Colts23.3%leaned — got home · +10.4 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
IND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 51.7 points below their season mean of 51.7% and 1.9 times their own 27.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · IND
22/34, 180 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-3.2 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
16/35, 162 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-6.6 expected points added · -18.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jamal Agnew banked 5.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.6 | −1.6 | 84% | 75% | 24% | 0% | 21 car, 116 yd, 1 TD · 6/8, 10 yd |
| James RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 18.4 | +0.4 | 59% | 42% | 14% | 0% | 12 car, 57 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 27 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.9 | +5.6 | 76% | 72% | 14% | 23% | 3 car, 79 yd, 1 TD · 0/5, 0 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Featured Receiver | 13.7 | +1.3 | 68% | 74% | 23% | 19% | 5/8, 67 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.1 | +4.5 | 88% | 89% | 15% | 31% | 5/5, 71 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 9.8 | −4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/35, 162 yd · 5 car, 33 yd |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 7.1 | −5.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/34, 180 yd · 4 car, -1 yd |
| Jack DoyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −2.2 | 58% | 50% | 15% | 19% | 3/5, 31 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −3.8 | 85% | 86% | 17% | 34% | 2/6, 35 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −7.6 | 77% | 77% | 23% | 19% | 2 car, 6 yd · 3/8, 15 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB · Receiving Back | 4.9 | −2.2 | 28% | 31% | 12% | 8% | 2 car, 12 yd · 2/4, 17 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.2 | 89% | 92% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +0.9 | 35% | 23% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.1 | 19% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −4.0 | 55% | 50% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| T.Y. HiltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −6.4 | 61% | 72% | 15% | 36% | 1/5, 5 yd |
| Carlos HydeRB | 1.4 | −1.6 | 27% | 35% | 6% | 1% | 2 car, 4 yd · 1/2, 0 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 36% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at IND 47 for -1 yards (sack split by 54-D.Odeyingbo and 99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (54-D.Odeyingbo) [99-D.Buckner], RECOVERED by IND-57-K.Turay at IND 45.
Q4 1:02 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at IND 46 · gained nothing · -2.70 EP · −23.8% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 180 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 78 yards from the JAX 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars0
Colts3Jaguars0Colts9Jaguars0Colts10Jaguars0Colts16Jaguars0Colts17Jaguars6Colts17Jaguars6Colts20Jaguars9Colts20Jaguars15Colts20Jaguars17Colts20Jaguars17Colts23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 16/35 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −6.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 79 | 26.3 | 1 | +6.1 |
| James Robinson | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 | 23% | +2.9 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawuane Smoot | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 22/34 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_JAX_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -10.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 40 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5 |
| 33 |
| 6.6 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| +1.5 |
| James Robinson | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 14% | +0.4 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +2.8 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 23% | −2.3 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −5.2 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Malcom Brown | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Wilson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Wingard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Gotsis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 116 | 5.5 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 | 15% | +6.7 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 15% | +1.9 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 12% | +0.5 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 24% | −6.1 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −1.6 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15% | −4.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Sendejo | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Odum | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Carrie | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Taylor Stallworth | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahleel Addae | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
