2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

KC -2.5 ✓O 53.5 ✓DomeChiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 27.

Kansas City Chiefs 41–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 12:16, LV +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 12:16KC — LV LV ball · 1st & 10KC 82%

(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 89-B.Edwards for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 12:16LV +12% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 89-B.Edwards for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 13:03LV +8% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:11LV +7% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to LV 39 for 16 yards (52-D.Perryman).
Q2 · 2:00LV +7% win prob(2:00) 31-Da.Williams right tackle to LV 1 for 2 yards (35-B.Facyson; 52-D.Perryman).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Raiders
Offensive plays	74	51
Total yards	518 (edge)	299
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.39 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	54% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	69%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.57 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	9/15 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

35/50, 406 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

24.9 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

25/35, 261 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.0 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Darrel WilliamsRB

11 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Derrick GoreRB

6 att, 19 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/10 for 119 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Darrel WilliamsRB

9/9 for 101 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 22	5	11	2:28	Punt
2	LV	LV 30	7	23	3:56	Punt
3	KC	KC 11	12	89	5:45	Touchdown
4	LV	LV 25	5	10	2:21	Punt
5	LV	50	6	36	2:33	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 25	10	53	4:33	Turnover on downs
7	LV	LV 25	6	6	2:26	Punt
8	KC	KC 42	11	54	4:19	Touchdown
9	LV	LV 20	5	7	0:47	Punt
10	KC	KC 38	8	34	0:52	Turnover on downs
11	LV	LV 25	7	75	2:52	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 18	15	62	4:59	Touchdown
13	LV	LV 18	4	63	1:35	Fumble
14	KC	KC 27	8	66	4:37	Turnover on downs
15	LV	LV 25	4	3	0:47	Interception
16	KC	KC 44	8	56	1:59	Touchdown
17	LV	LV 21	6	16	1:23	Punt
18	KC	KC 20	8	75	4:09	Touchdown
19	LV	LV 25	16	60	5:54	Turnover on downs
20	KC	KC 20	3	18	1:45	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 89 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	35/50	406	5	0	0	24.9
Tommy Townsend	1/1	16	0	0	0	4.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrel Williams	11	43	3.9	1.7
Jerick McKinnon	3	26	8.7	-0.6
Derrick Gore	6	19	3.2	-1.3
Mecole Hardman	1	3	3.0	0.1
Blake Bell	1	3	3.0	0.6
Tyreek Hill	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Chad Henne	2	-2	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	10	119	0	21%	9.9
Darrel Williams	9	9	101	1	19%	7.2
Tyreek Hill	7	10	83	2	21%	5.4
Byron Pringle	4	5	46	1	10%	4.0
Mecole Hardman	2	3	27	0	6%	0.0
Demarcus Robinson	3	4	23	0	8%	0.8
Marcus Kemp	1	1	16	0	2%	4.0
Jerick McKinnon	1	3	6	0	6%	-1.6
Noah Gray	1	3	1	1	6%	1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Armani Watts	3	3	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	5	1	0.0	0
Anthony Hitchens	1	4	0.0	0
Rashad Fenton	3	1	0.0	1
Juan Thornhill	1	3	0.0	0
Willie Gay	1	3	0.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	1	2	1.0	0
Nick Bolton	2	1	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	0	0.0	1
Mike Hughes	1	1	0.0	1

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	25/35	261	2	1	2	-0.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derek Carr	3	18	6.0	0.7
Josh Jacobs	7	16	2.3	-1.9
Kenyan Drake	4	16	4.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Bryan Edwards	3	4	88	1	12%	5.4
Hunter Renfrow	7	9	46	1	26%	-0.5
DeSean Jackson	1	1	38	0	3%	-3.9
Darren Waller	4	7	24	0	21%	0.2
Zay Jones	1	3	22	0	9%	-2.1
Josh Jacobs	5	5	20	0	15%	-1.2
Kenyan Drake	2	3	15	0	9%	0.5
Alec Ingold	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Jalen Richard	1	1	3	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Denzel Perryman	7	4	0
Johnathan Abram	4	6	0
Brandon Facyson	4	2	0
Nate Hobbs	5	1	0
Dallin Leavitt	5	0	0
Trevon Moehrig	4	1	1
Johnathan Hankins	2	3	0
Cory Littleton	2	2	0
Maxx Crosby	1	2	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -2.5
Closing total: 53.5
KC moneyline: -147
LV moneyline: +133

Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 27.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 55 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: KC 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Rich Bisaccia

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.