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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:43 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 15, 2021 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q1 0:58, 3rd and 11, on Jimmie Ward — 12.9 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:58, 49ers +12.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:58 · 3rd and 11
Jimmie Ward
49ers
(:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at LA 27. 1-J.Ward for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.77 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Rams at 3 of 10 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.22 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at LA 27. 1-J.Ward for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
George Kittle's 8-yard touchdown catch with 1:59 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
George Kittle8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 54 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against 49ers’s 63 at 32%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, 49ers 3.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's early-down pass rate, 21.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 16.2 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
LA's early-down pass rate, 78.6%, is past their previous high of 71.4% in week 9 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
SF's pass rate over expected, −18.9 pts, is past their previous low of −11.7 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
LA's sack or hit rate, 5.0%, is past their previous low of 7.7% in week 4 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
20 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Rams6.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 54 snaps
49ers-18.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −12.3 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.72× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 86%
Tendencies room →Rams78.6%off script — passed early · +20.3 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+2.12× that swing) · 42 early downs
49ers21.3%leaned — ran early · −28.1 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -43% to 90%
Fourth Down room →Rams—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.6%.
49ers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →Rams5.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
49ers9.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.6%, 20.3 points above their season mean of 58.2% and 2.1 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
26/41, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.8 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected
Passing · SF
15/19, 182 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
15.4 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Deebo Samuel banked 17.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.3 | +17.0 | 72% | 95% | 26% | 33% | 5 car, 36 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 97 yd, 1 TD |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.0 | +3.3 | 76% | 100% | 37% | 36% | 5/7, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 15.4 | +7.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/19, 182 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.1 | −4.5 | 53% | 25% | 0% | — | 27 car, 91 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −0.5 | 90% | 100% | 21% | 13% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB | 2.8 | −2.4 | 32% | 25% | 0% | — | 10 car, 28 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.6 | −0.1 | 59% | 75% | 5% | 5% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −2.0 | 47% | 75% | 11% | 14% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Trenton CannonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Trey SermonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 13% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at LA 27. 1-J.Ward for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:58 · Rams · 3rd & 11 at LA 24 · gained nothing · -6.22 EP · −8.8% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 93 yards from the SF 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams0
49ers6Rams049ers7Rams049ers13Rams049ers14Rams649ers14Rams749ers14Rams749ers20Rams749ers21Rams749ers24Rams749ers30Rams749ers31Rams1049ers31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/41 | 243 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −8.8 |
| Johnny Hekker | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Sony Michel | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 13 | 122 | 0 | 31% | +5.9 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Reeder | 3 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 15/19 | 182 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +15.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_LA_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50; the game landed 41 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| −1.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 12% | −4.1 |
| Odell Beckham | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 14% | −5.3 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 12% | −1.4 |
| Kendall Blanton | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | −2.6 |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Copeland | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 27 | 91 | 3.4 | 0 | −7.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 1 | +4.4 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 5 | 97 | 1 | 26% | +13.3 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 37% | +4.9 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 21% | +0.0 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Moseley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Norman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jimmie Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| D.J. Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
