2021 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 15, 2021 · Levi's Stadium

Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco 49ersWinner

LA -3.5 upsetU 50 ✓Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:58, LA +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:58LA — SF LA ball · 3rd & 11SF 62%

(:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at LA 27. 1-J.Ward for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:58LA +13% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at LA 27. 1-J.Ward for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:18LA +8% win prob(:18) (Field Goal formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 86-K.Blanton to SF 15 for 2 yards (93-D.Jones) [29-T.Hufanga]. Caught at SF 21. 6-YAC
Q2 · 8:23SF +7% win prob(8:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to LA 44 for 20 yards (33-N.Scott). Caught at SF 40. 16-YAC
Q2 · 13:20SF +7% win prob(13:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	49ers
Offensive plays	54	63
Total yards	278	336 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	0.16 (edge)
Success rate	37%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	81%	32%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.77 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	3/10	8/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	13	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

26/41, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.8 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

15/19, 182 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.4 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

27 att, 91 yds, 0 TD

-7.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

5 att, 36 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

11/13 for 122 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

5/5 for 97 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 13.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	5	17	2:03	Interception
2	SF	SF 7	19	88	11:03	Touchdown
3	LA	LA 25	5	14	1:05	Defensive touchdown
4	LA	LA 25	9	75	2:33	Touchdown
5	SF	SF 9	13	91	7:52	Touchdown
6	LA	LA 21	10	69	5:12	Turnover on downs
7	SF	SF 16	1	0	0:12	End of half
8	SF	SF 23	6	16	2:35	Punt
9	LA	LA 20	4	5	1:33	Punt
10	SF	SF 37	10	41	6:14	Turnover on downs
11	LA	LA 25	5	6	0:56	Punt
12	SF	SF 27	7	18	2:49	Punt
13	LA	LA 9	4	3	0:53	Punt
14	SF	SF 44	7	61	3:53	Touchdown
15	LA	LA 21	15	57	5:07	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 11	4	1	1:01	Punt
17	LA	LA 48	7	25	1:11	Turnover on downs
18	SF	LA 44	7	20	3:24	Turnover on downs
19	LA	LA 25	1	7	0:24	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	26/41	243	1	2	2	-8.8
Johnny Hekker	1/1	2	0	0	0	-2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrell Henderson	5	31	6.2	1.4
Sony Michel	4	20	5.0	-0.5
Matthew Stafford	1	1	1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	11	13	122	0	31%	5.9
Van Jefferson	3	7	54	0	17%	-1.2
Tyler Higbee	3	5	20	1	12%	-4.1
Odell Beckham	2	3	18	0	7%	-1.0
Sony Michel	2	2	11	0	5%	1.0
Darrell Henderson	4	6	10	0	14%	-5.3
Ben Skowronek	1	5	8	0	12%	-1.4
Kendall Blanton	1	1	2	0	2%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Troy Reeder	3	8	0.0
Taylor Rapp	5	3	1.0
Aaron Donald	2	6	0.0
A'Shawn Robinson	4	4	0.0
Marquise Copeland	3	4	0.0
Jordan Fuller	3	4	0.0
Ernest Jones	1	4	0.0
Greg Gaines	1	3	0.0
David Long	1	1	0.0
Nick Scott	1	1	0.0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	15/19	182	2	0	1	15.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	27	91	3.4	0	-7.5
Deebo Samuel	5	36	7.2	1	4.4
Jeffery Wilson	10	28	2.8	0	-2.9
Jimmy Garoppolo	2	1	0.5	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	5	5	97	1	26%	13.3
George Kittle	5	7	50	1	37%	4.9
Brandon Aiyuk	3	4	26	0	21%	0.0
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	6	0	5%	0.1
Jauan Jennings	1	2	3	0	11%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	5	3	0.0	0	1
Azeez Al-Shaair	5	2	0.0	0	0
K'Waun Williams	5	0	0.0	0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	4	0	0.0	0	1
Josh Norman	2	1	0.0	0	0
Trenton Cannon	1	1	0.0	0	0
Arden Key	2	0	1.0	0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	2	0	0.0	0	1
Jimmie Ward	2	0	0.0	2	2
D.J. Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3.5
Closing total: 50
LA moneyline: -177
SF moneyline: +158

Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50; the game landed 41 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: LA 8 days · SF 8 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.