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2021 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 15, 2021 · Levi's Stadium
10
31
San Francisco 49ers 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:58, LA +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-T.Higbee INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Ward at LA 27. 1-J.Ward for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Rams | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 54 | 63 |
| Total yards | 278 | 336 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.1 | 5.3 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.22 | 0.16 (edge) |
| Success rate | 37% | 44% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 81% | 32% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.26 | 0.77 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.03 (edge) | -0.13 |
| Third downs | 3/10 | 8/14 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 13 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
26/41, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.8 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected
Passing · SF
15/19, 182 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
15.4 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | LA 25 | 5 | 17 | 2:03 | Interception | |
| 2 | SF | SF 7 | 19 | 88 | 11:03 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | LA | LA 25 | 5 | 14 | 1:05 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 4 | LA | LA 25 | 9 | 75 | 2:33 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | SF | SF 9 | 13 | 91 | 7:52 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | LA | LA 21 | 10 | 69 | 5:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | SF | SF 16 | 1 | 0 | 0:12 | End of half | |
| 8 | SF | SF 23 | 6 | 16 | 2:35 | Punt | |
| 9 | LA | LA 20 | 4 | 5 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 10 | SF | SF 37 | 10 | 41 | 6:14 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | LA | LA 25 | 5 | 6 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 12 | SF | SF 27 | 7 | 18 | 2:49 | Punt | |
| 13 | LA | LA 9 | 4 | 3 | 0:53 | Punt | |
| 14 | SF | SF 44 | 7 | 61 | 3:53 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | LA | LA 21 | 15 | 57 | 5:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | SF | SF 11 | 4 | 1 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 17 | LA | LA 48 | 7 | 25 | 1:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | SF | LA 44 | 7 | 20 | 3:24 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | LA | LA 25 | 1 | 7 | 0:24 | End of game |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 91 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/41 | 243 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -8.8 |
| Johnny Hekker | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Sony Michel | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 13 | 122 | 0 | 31% | 5.9 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 17% | -1.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Reeder | 3 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rapp | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 15/19 | 182 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 27 | 91 | 3.4 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50; the game landed 41 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -4.1 |
| Odell Beckham | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 7% | -1.0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | 1.0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 14% | -5.3 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 12% | -1.4 |
| Kendall Blanton | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | -2.6 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marquise Copeland | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -7.5 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 1 | 4.4 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 5 | 97 | 1 | 26% | 13.3 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 37% | 4.9 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 21% | 0.0 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | 0.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11% | -1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Moseley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Norman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jimmie Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| D.J. Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
