2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -3 upsetU 53.5 ✓DomeChargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 27–20. Biggest swing: Q3 2:39, LAC +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:39MIN — LAC MIN ball · 4th & 1LAC 58%

(2:39) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Ogbongbemiga]. LAC-32-A.Gilman was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:39LAC +14% win prob(2:39) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Ogbongbemiga]. LAC-32-A.Gilman was injured during the play.
Q1 · 8:32MIN +11% win prob(8:32) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LAC 27 for -5 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by LAC-93-J.Jones at LAC 29.
Q2 · 6:31MIN +10% win prob(6:31) 68-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass deep left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks at LAC 31. 54-E.Kendricks to LAC 31 for no gain (13-K.Allen).
Q3 · 12:05LAC +9% win prob(12:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-J.Cook to MIN 7 for 10 yards (23-X.Woods) [98-D.Wonnum].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Chargers
Offensive plays	69	55
Total yards	388 (edge)	253
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	49% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	58%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	5/13	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

25/37, 294 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.6 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

20/34, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.7 expected points added · -10.6% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

24 att, 94 yds, 1 TD

4.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

11 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

9/11 for 143 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

8/11 for 98 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	8	27	3:25	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 17	4	-3	2:01	Punt
3	MIN	LAC 28	3	-1	1:09	Fumble
4	LAC	LAC 29	7	31	3:13	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 13	10	65	6:00	Turnover on downs
6	LAC	LAC 25	7	24	2:44	Turnover on downs
7	MIN	MIN 39	12	60	4:50	Turnover on downs
8	LAC	LAC 12	2	0	0:12	Interception
9	MIN	LAC 31	7	41	3:00	Touchdown
10	LAC	LAC 25	10	42	1:56	Touchdown
11	MIN	MIN 25	5	-3	0:30	Punt
12	LAC	50	4	4	0:39	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 11	1	5	0:21	End of half
14	LAC	LAC 25	12	75	4:20	Touchdown
15	MIN	MIN 30	5	3	1:28	Punt
16	LAC	LAC 6	6	8	2:47	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 34	10	55	3:52	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 25	5	3	1:00	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 32	13	68	7:04	Touchdown
20	LAC	LAC 25	13	69	4:53	Turnover on downs
21	MIN	MIN 25	11	68	4:36	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	25/37	294	2	0	2	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	24	94	3.9	1	4.3
Alexander Mattison	4	16	4.0	0	-0.4
Kirk Cousins	4	-3	-0.8	0	-2.6
Justin Jefferson	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	9	11	143	0	31%	12.0
Adam Thielen	5	7	65	0	20%	1.4
Dalvin Cook	3	5	24	0	14%	-1.2
Alexander Mattison	1	1	24	0	3%	2.3
Christopher Herndon	1	2	14	0	6%	0.1
C.J. Ham	3	3	13	0	9%	-0.3
Tyler Conklin	3	5	11	2	14%	2.3
K.J. Osborn	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	5	1	1.0	1	1
Bashaud Breeland	6	0	0.0	0	0
Camryn Bynum	5	1	1.0	0	1
Blake Lynch	3	2	0.0	0	0
Mackensie Alexander	3	1	0.0	0	1
Xavier Woods	3	0	0.0	0	1
James Lynch	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nick Vigil	1	1	0.0	0	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	0	2	0.0	0	1
Patrick Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	20/34	195	1	1	2	-6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	11	44	4.0	0	-1.0
Justin Herbert	2	22	11.0	0	1.0
Larry Rountree	5	10	2.0	1	-0.2
Joshua Kelley	1	6	6.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	8	11	98	0	33%	-0.2
Mike Williams	4	6	33	0	18%	2.5
Josh Palmer	3	4	22	0	12%	-1.3
Donald Parham	1	2	17	0	6%	0.2
Austin Ekeler	3	6	15	1	18%	-1.8
Jared Cook	1	3	10	0	9%	-0.3
Jalen Guyton	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Derwin James	8	3	0.0	1
Kyzir White	5	4	0.0	0
Tevaughn Campbell	6	0	0.0	0
Alohi Gilman	2	4	0.0	0
Justin Jones	2	3	0.0	0
Joey Bosa	3	1	1.0	0
Trey Marshall	1	3	0.0	0
Jerry Tillery	2	1	0.0	0
Kenneth Murray	2	1	0.0	0
Chris Harris	2	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -3
Closing total: 53.5
MIN moneyline: +160
LAC moneyline: -179

Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 47 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: MIN 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Brandon Staley