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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:38 PM ET · 1 to play · 13 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q3 2:39, 4th and 1, on Tyler Conklin — 13.6 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 27–20. Biggest swing: Q3 2:39, Vikings +13.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:39 · 4th and 1
Tyler Conklin
Vikings
(2:39) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Ogbongbemiga]. LAC-32-A.Gilman was injured during the play.
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Chargers at 3 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(2:39) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [57-A.Ogbongbemiga]. LAC-32-A.Gilman was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Conklin's 1-yard touchdown catch with 2:39 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Tyler Conklin1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk CousinsLead never changed again+720–179 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryChargers
Vikings ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 69 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Chargers’s 55 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Chargers 3.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.2 pts in week 9 against +0.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings0.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 69 snaps
Chargers2.8 ptsright on their number · −1.1 vs their 3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 88%
Tendencies room →Vikings51.9%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 54 early downs
Chargers58.1%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 131%
Fourth Down room →Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.9%.
Chargers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 54.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 30%
Tendencies room →Vikings16.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chargers15.0%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was MIN's pass rate over expected, 0.4 pts against a season mean of -2.6 pts — and MIN swings 4.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 3 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 3
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
25/37, 294 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.6 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
20/34, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.7 expected points added · -10.6% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
9/11 for 143 yds, 0 TD
31% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Larry Rountree banked 2.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.9 | −0.3 | 76% | 93% | 31% | 48% | 1 car, -4 yd · 9/11, 143 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.8 | −7.9 | 82% | 75% | 14% | 0% | 24 car, 94 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 24 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.8 | −0.5 | 93% | 95% | 33% | 53% | 8/11, 98 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/37, 294 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, -3 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 16.1 | +0.6 | 85% | 80% | 14% | 19% | 3/5, 11 yd, 2 TD |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 14.9 | −4.1 | 71% | 70% | 18% | 14% | 11 car, 44 yd · 3/6, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 12.0 | −8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/34, 195 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 22 yd |
| Adam ThielenWR · Featured Receiver | 11.5 | −1.3 | 90% | 93% | 20% | 22% | 5/7, 65 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −5.9 | 95% | 95% | 18% | 5% | 4/6, 33 yd |
| Larry RountreeRB | 7.0 | +2.1 | 15% | 11% | 0% | — | 5 car, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −1.1 | 31% | 35% | 12% | 9% | 3/4, 22 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 5.0 | +1.6 | 15% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 16 yd · 1/1, 24 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 4.3 | −0.8 | 34% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 3/3, 13 yd |
| Donald ParhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −3.3 | 46% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 1/2, 17 yd |
| Christopher HerndonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.8 | 29% | 30% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Jared CookTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.4 | 58% | 65% | 9% | 13% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 0.6 | 0.0 | 14% | 16% | 0% | — | 1 car, 6 yd |
| Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen GuytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 31% | 41% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Maurice FfrenchWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Andre RobertsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Luke StockerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 52% | 60% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dan ChisenaWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dede WestbrookWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 7 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:32) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins sacked at LAC 27 for -5 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by LAC-93-J.Jones at LAC 29.
Q1 8:32 · Vikings · 3rd & 4 at LAC 22 · lost 7 · -5.86 EP · −15.3% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 75 yards from the LAC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings3
Chargers0Vikings3Chargers3Vikings6Chargers3Vikings12Chargers3Vikings13Chargers3Vikings13Chargers9Vikings13Chargers10Vikings13Chargers16Vikings13Chargers17Vikings19Chargers17Vikings20Chargers17Vikings26Chargers17Vikings27Chargers17Vikings27Chargers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 25/37 | 294 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 24 | 94 | 3.9 | 1 | +4.3 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Kirk Cousins |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 11 | 143 | 0 | 31% | +12.0 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Kendricks | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bashaud Breeland | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 20/34 | 195 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_MIN_LAC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 47 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| -3 |
| -0.8 |
| 0 |
| −2.6 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| +1.4 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 14% | −1.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 3% | +2.3 |
| Christopher Herndon | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| C.J. Ham | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | −0.3 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 14% | +2.3 |
| K.J. Osborn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Blake Lynch | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mackensie Alexander | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Woods | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| James Lynch | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Vigil | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Larry Rountree | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 | −0.2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 98 | 0 | 33% | −0.2 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 18% | +2.5 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 12% | −1.3 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 18% | −1.8 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | −0.3 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyzir White | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevaughn Campbell | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Jones | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Marshall | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Tillery | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
