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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q2 15:00, 3rd and 6, on Deonte Harty — 11.3 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Saints +11.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 3rd and 6
Deonte Harty
Saints
(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep left to 11-D.Harris to TEN 25 for 46 yards (35-C.Jackson) [98-J.Simmons].
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Titans at 2 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 12 on third down, against Titans at 3 of 12 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep left to 11-D.Harris to TEN 25 for 46 yards (35-C.Jackson) [98-J.Simmons].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ryan Tannehill's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:41 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Tre'Quan Smith11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Siemian · kick no good, wide left+66–3Marquez Callaway15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Siemian · two-point no good+621–239 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryTitans
Saints ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 62 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Titans’s 56 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Titans 5.
Saints outgained Titans 373-266 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-3.5 ptsright on their number · +2.8 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 61 snaps
Titans-1.6 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.4 vs their -8.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 80%
Tendencies room →Saints59.2%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 50.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 49 early downs
Titans47.7%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.8%.
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 49.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 34%
Tendencies room →Saints20.0%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans14.6%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
TEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -1.6 pts, 6.4 points above their season mean of -8.0 pts and 1.0 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
19/34, 298 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
5.7 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
19/27, 213 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2.4 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Marcus Johnson banked 5.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark IngramRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.8 | −0.7 | 85% | 85% | 20% | 1% | 14 car, 47 yd, 1 TD · 4/7, 61 yd |
| Trevor SiemianQB · Starter QB | 19.9 | +3.6 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 19/34, 298 yd, 2 TD |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 18.6 | −2.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 213 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Marcus JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 15.0 | +5.9 | 63% | 57% | 22% | 24% | 5/6, 100 yd |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 14.4 | −0.7 | 91% | 90% | 20% | 13% | 4/7, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +5.4 | 39% | 46% | 11% | 16% | 1 car, 6 yd · 3/4, 84 yd |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +4.6 | 78% | 73% | 11% | 28% | 2/4, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 9.8 | −0.9 | 35% | 30% | 7% | 0% | 11 car, 30 yd · 2/2, 48 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | −0.4 | 84% | 78% | 17% | 4% | 5/6, 32 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +3.0 | 38% | 47% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −1.6 | 67% | 50% | 19% | 23% | 4/5, 26 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.7 | 15% | 22% | 9% | 11% | 2/3, 36 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 5.2 | −0.7 | 31% | — | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 11 yd · 3 car, 23 yd · 1/2, 15 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −6.3 | 82% | 80% | 15% | 38% | 1 car, 7 yd · 1/4, 16 yd |
| Adrian PetersonRB | 3.0 | −5.5 | 33% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 8 car, 21 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.9 | 37% | 47% | 4% | 7% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Chester RogersWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.2 | 35% | 37% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB · Receiving Back | 1.8 | −5.6 | 27% | 30% | 11% | 10% | 4 car, 7 yd · 1/3, 1 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.3 | 37% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Dez FitzpatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −1.3 | 22% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Dwayne WashingtonRB | 0.8 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.2 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kevin WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.4 | 13% | 17% | 6% | 20% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Tory CarterRB | 0.0 | — | 15% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep left to 11-D.Harris to TEN 25 for 46 yards (35-C.Jackson) [98-J.Simmons].
Q2 15:00 · Saints · 3rd & 6 at NO 29 · gained 46 · +4.11 EP · +16.0% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 87 yards from the NO 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints0
Titans3Saints6Titans3Saints6Titans6Saints6Titans12Saints6Titans13Saints6Titans19Saints6Titans20Saints12Titans20Saints12Titans23Saints15Titans23Saints21Titans23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 19/34 | 298 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +5.7 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 | −0.6 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 4 | 84 | 0 | 11% | +7.2 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Onyemata |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 19/27 | 213 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_NO_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +0.2 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 20% | −0.6 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 11% | +4.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 9% | +3.0 |
| Adam Trautman | 5 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 17% | −0.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Kevin White | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Davenport | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Adrian Peterson | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.6 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 1 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johnson | 5 | 6 | 100 | 0 | 22% | +7.7 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 7% | +3.8 |
| Geoff Swaim | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 19% | +0.9 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 15% | −1.8 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −2.5 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11% | −3.5 |
| Dez Fitzpatrick | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayon Brown | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Monty Rice | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harold Landry | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Janoris Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Peko | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthias Farley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Olasunkanmi Adeniyi | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
