2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Nissan Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -3 no cover44 pushTitans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Tennessee Titans 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, TEN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 15:00NO — TEN NO ball · 3rd & 6TEN 64%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep left to 11-D.Harris to TEN 25 for 46 yards (35-C.Jackson) [98-J.Simmons].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 15:00TEN +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep left to 11-D.Harris to TEN 25 for 46 yards (35-C.Jackson) [98-J.Simmons].
Q4 · 1:16NO +10% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-T.Siemian pass to 14-M.Ingram is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q1 · 3:47TEN +10% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 88-M.Johnson to NO 26 for 50 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
Q3 · 4:00TEN +10% win prob(4:00) 14-M.Ingram right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Titans
Offensive plays	62	56
Total yards	373 (edge)	266
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	42% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	66%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Saints outgained Titans 373–266 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Trevor SiemianQB

19/34, 298 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.7 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

19/27, 213 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.4 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

14 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

D'Onta ForemanRB

11 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Marcus JohnsonWR

5/6 for 100 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Deonte HartyWR

3/4 for 84 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 31	5	4	1:54	Punt
2	NO	NO 34	8	19	3:42	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 8	4	4	1:16	Punt
4	NO	TEN 49	7	21	3:38	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 20	8	70	3:38	Turnover on downs
6	NO	NO 25	8	75	2:53	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 23	11	53	5:15	Turnover on downs
8	NO	NO 14	7	5	2:43	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 44	9	57	3:23	Touchdown
10	NO	NO 32	7	32	1:38	End of half
11	NO	—	1	0	0:07	Fumble
12	TEN	NO 19	6	19	2:51	Touchdown
13	NO	NO 24	5	2	0:58	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 48	4	-3	1:59	Punt
15	NO	NO 13	12	87	5:11	Touchdown
16	TEN	TEN 25	5	2	1:33	Punt
17	NO	NO 27	4	3	0:57	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 27	11	54	6:23	Turnover on downs
19	NO	NO 32	9	68	4:28	Turnover on downs
20	TEN	TEN 25	7	6	1:59	Punt
21	NO	NO 29	8	61	2:18	Touchdown
22	TEN	NO 46	3	0	1:16	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 87 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Siemian	19/34	298	2	0	4	5.7
Taysom Hill	2/2	11	0	0	0	0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	14	47	3.4	1	-0.6
Taysom Hill	3	23	7.7	0	1.0
Dwayne Washington	2	8	4.0	0	-0.1
Deonte Harty	1	6	6.0	0	0.3
Ty Montgomery	1	2	2.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deonte Harty	3	4	84	0	11%	7.2
Mark Ingram	4	7	61	0	20%	0.2
Tre'Quan Smith	4	7	44	1	20%	-0.6
Marquez Callaway	2	4	37	1	11%	4.1
Juwan Johnson	2	3	36	0	9%	3.0
Adam Trautman	5	6	32	0	17%	-0.2
Taysom Hill	1	2	15	0	6%	0.5
Kevin White	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marshon Lattimore	6	0	0.0	0
Shy Tuttle	2	3	0.0	1
David Onyemata	2	3	0.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	2	2	0.0	1
Cameron Jordan	4	0	0.0	0
Demario Davis	3	1	0.0	0
P.J. Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Kwon Alexander	2	2	0.0	1
Marcus Davenport	3	0	2.0	0
Paulson Adebo	2	1	0.0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	19/27	213	1	0	2	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	11	30	2.7	0	-3.3
Adrian Peterson	8	21	2.6	0	-1.6
A.J. Brown	1	7	7.0	0	0.8
Jeremy McNichols	4	7	1.8	0	-2.7
Ryan Tannehill	5	1	0.2	1	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marcus Johnson	5	6	100	0	22%	7.7
D'Onta Foreman	2	2	48	0	7%	3.8
Geoff Swaim	4	5	26	0	19%	0.9
A.J. Brown	1	4	16	0	15%	-1.8
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	1	10	0	4%	0.8
Chester Rogers	1	1	9	0	4%	0.8
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	2	1	4%	0.9
Anthony Firkser	1	2	2	0	7%	-2.5
Jeremy McNichols	1	3	1	0	11%	-3.5
Dez Fitzpatrick	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Adrian Peterson	1	1	-1	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jayon Brown	6	2	0.0	0
Monty Rice	2	5	0.0	0
Elijah Molden	2	3	0.0	0
Kevin Byard	2	3	0.0	1
Harold Landry	3	1	1.0	0
Amani Hooker	2	2	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	2	2	0.0	1
Kyle Peko	1	2	0.0	0
Matthias Farley	2	1	0.0	0
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -3
Closing total: 44
NO moneyline: +133
TEN moneyline: -147

Titans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: NO 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Mike Vrabel