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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q3 0:14, 4th and 1, on Melvin Gordon — 26.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:14, Eagles +26.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:14 · 4th and 1
Melvin Gordon
Eagles
(:14) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to PHI 22 for 1 yard (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by PHI-2-D.Slay at PHI 17. 2-D.Slay for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
26.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 12 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Broncos at 5 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(:14) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to PHI 22 for 1 yard (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by PHI-2-D.Slay at PHI 17. 2-D.Slay for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
DeVonta Smith's 5-yard touchdown catch with 3:11 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
DeVonta Smith5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+717–109 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryBroncos
Eagles ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 61 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Broncos’s 55 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Broncos 5.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-15.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −9.5 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 61 snaps
Broncos-0.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 92%
Tendencies room →Eagles38.8%inside their normal wobble · −11.2 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 49 early downs
Broncos61.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.8 vs their 52.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.9%.
Broncos33.3%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 34.6%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 31%
Tendencies room →Eagles8.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos15.4%inside their normal wobble · +2.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PHI's pass rate over expected, -15.6 pts against a season mean of -6.2 pts — and PHI swings 10.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
22/36, 226 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.3 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
16/23, 178 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
5.1 expected points added · +12.9% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
3/3 for 77 yds, 0 TD
9% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DeVonta Smith banked 10.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.6 | +10.1 | 84% | 88% | 27% | 41% | 4/6, 66 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 18.6 | −0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/23, 178 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 13 car, 55 yd |
| Boston ScottRB · Committee Back | 12.5 | +4.8 | 31% | 15% | 9% | 0% | 11 car, 81 yd · 2/2, 24 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.1 | −4.3 | 78% | 89% | 26% | 43% | 1 car, 3 yd · 6/9, 48 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +1.6 | 76% | 76% | 18% | 16% | 5/6, 59 yd |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +6.0 | 41% | 32% | 9% | 8% | 3/3, 77 yd |
| Melvin GordonRB · Committee Back | 9.3 | −4.3 | 43% | 43% | 12% | 0% | 9 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 1/4, -2 yd |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | −5.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/36, 226 yd |
| Jordan HowardRB | 8.3 | +1.2 | 38% | 27% | 0% | — | 12 car, 83 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.3 | −3.0 | 89% | 96% | 27% | 29% | 4/6, 33 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 6.9 | −3.4 | 57% | 57% | 9% | 0% | 8 car, 48 yd · 2/3, 1 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −1.0 | 95% | 97% | 9% | 16% | 2/3, 29 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +1.9 | 20% | 23% | 9% | 9% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −6.5 | 91% | 95% | 18% | 14% | 3/6, 14 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −2.4 | 66% | 50% | 14% | 7% | 2/3, 6 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 2.4 | −1.5 | 31% | 54% | 5% | 3% | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −3.2 | 78% | 92% | 9% | 10% | 1 car, -8 yd · 1/2, 12 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Diontae SpencerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:14) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to PHI 22 for 1 yard (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by PHI-2-D.Slay at PHI 17. 2-D.Slay for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 0:14 · Broncos · 4th & 1 at PHI 23 · gained 1 · -10.17 EP · −20.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles3
Broncos0Eagles9Broncos0Eagles10Broncos0Eagles10Broncos6Eagles10Broncos7Eagles10Broncos10Eagles16Broncos10Eagles17Broncos10Eagles20Broncos10Eagles20Broncos13Eagles26Broncos13Eagles27Broncos13Eagles30Broncos13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/23 | 178 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +5.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 12 | 83 | 6.9 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Boston Scott | 11 | 81 | 7.4 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Jalen Hurts |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 6 | 66 | 2 | 27% | +6.3 |
| Quez Watkins | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Harris | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avonte Maddox | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 22/36 | 226 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −5.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_PHI_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 13 |
| 55 |
| 4.2 |
| 0 |
| −0.0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| −2.4 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 9% | +2.9 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 9% | +2.3 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Jack Stoll | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 14% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Davion Taylor | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Barnett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 | −8.4 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 3 | 77 | 0 | 9% | +5.9 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 18% | +1.5 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 26% | +0.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 18% | −3.9 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9% | −3.1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 12% | −3.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Reed | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Fuller | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kenny Young | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caden Sterns | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
