2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -1 upsetU 44.5 ✓19 mph windBroncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:14, PHI +27% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:14PHI — DEN DEN ball · 4th & 1PHI 66%

(:14) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to PHI 22 for 1 yard (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by PHI-2-D.Slay at PHI 17. 2-D.Slay for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:14PHI +27% win prob(:14) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to PHI 22 for 1 yard (52-D.Taylor). FUMBLES (52-D.Taylor), touched at PHI 22, RECOVERED by PHI-2-D.Slay at PHI 17. 2-D.Slay for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:26DEN +17% win prob(11:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 85-A.Okwuegbunam pushed ob at PHI 8 for 64 yards (28-A.Harris).
Q3 · 3:11PHI +9% win prob(3:11) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 16-Q.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons (96-S.Harris) at DEN 30. 31-J.Simmons pushed ob at DEN 47 for 17 yards (6-D.Smith).
Q1 · 8:50DEN +9% win prob(8:50) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to PHI 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Broncos
Offensive plays	61	55
Total yards	389 (edge)	308
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	-0.26
Success rate	49% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	43%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.50
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

22/36, 226 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.3 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

16/23, 178 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.1 expected points added · +12.9% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Jordan HowardRB

12 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Boston ScottRB

11 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Albert OkwuegbunamTE

3/3 for 77 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

4/6 for 66 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	11	63	4:47	Turnover on downs
2	DEN	DEN 25	5	-1	1:30	Punt
3	PHI	PHI 20	10	80	5:27	Touchdown
4	DEN	DEN 25	11	60	4:38	Touchdown
5	PHI	PHI 25	5	1	2:12	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 28	5	65	1:47	Turnover on downs
7	PHI	PHI 25	14	75	6:32	Touchdown
8	DEN	DEN 25	5	-10	1:18	Punt
9	PHI	PHI 15	9	51	1:44	Turnover on downs
10	DEN	DEN 25	2	13	0:05	End of half
11	DEN	DEN 25	9	71	4:10	Turnover on downs
12	PHI	PHI 10	4	1	1:49	Punt
13	DEN	PHI 45	10	44	4:10	Turnover on downs
14	PHI	PHI 25	5	24	1:48	Interception
15	DEN	DEN 47	6	31	3:03	Defensive touchdown
16	DEN	DEN 25	5	-4	1:27	Punt
17	PHI	PHI 35	10	62	5:57	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	5	0	0:47	Punt
19	PHI	PHI 32	4	9	2:37	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 12	7	39	2:07	Turnover on downs
21	PHI	PHI 10	4	23	2:05	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	16/23	178	2	1	2	5.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jordan Howard	12	83	6.9	3.5
Boston Scott	11	81	7.4	1.9
Jalen Hurts	13	55	4.2	-0.0
Kenneth Gainwell	2	5	2.5	-0.7
Jalen Reagor	1	-8	-8.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	4	6	66	2	27%	6.3
Quez Watkins	4	6	33	0	27%	-2.4
Dallas Goedert	2	2	28	0	9%	2.9
Boston Scott	2	2	24	0	9%	2.3
Jalen Reagor	1	2	12	0	9%	-0.4
Kenneth Gainwell	1	1	9	0	5%	0.3
Jack Stoll	2	3	6	0	14%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Harris	6	3	0.0	0
Avonte Maddox	5	2	0.0	0
T.J. Edwards	4	2	0.0	1
Davion Taylor	5	1	0.0	0
Rodney McLeod	2	2	0.0	0
Darius Slay	2	2	0.0	0
Javon Hargrave	1	1	0.0	0
Derek Barnett	1	1	1.0	0
DeVonta Smith	1	0	0.0	0
Marcus Epps	1	0	0.0	1

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	22/36	226	0	0	1	-5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Javonte Williams	8	48	6.0	0	-0.3
Melvin Gordon	9	45	5.0	1	-8.4
Jerry Jeudy	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Albert Okwuegbunam	3	3	77	9%	5.9
Noah Fant	5	6	59	18%	1.5
Jerry Jeudy	6	9	48	26%	0.3
Courtland Sutton	2	3	29	9%	0.2
Tim Patrick	3	6	14	18%	-3.9
Javonte Williams	2	3	1	9%	-3.1
Melvin Gordon	1	4	-2	12%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Malik Reed	5	4	1.0	0	0
Ronald Darby	4	3	0.0	0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	3	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	2	2	0.0	1	1
Kenny Young	3	1	0.0	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	3	1	1.0	0	0
Jonathon Cooper	3	1	0.0	0	0
Caden Sterns	2	1	0.0	0	0
Patrick Surtain	3	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1
Closing total: 44.5
PHI moneyline: +101
DEN moneyline: -111

Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: PHI 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Vic Fangio

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.