2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Lambeau Field

Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -3 ✓U 49.5 ✓Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.

Green Bay Packers 17–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 7:53, SEA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 7:53SEA — GB SEA ball · 3rd & 10GB 54%

(7:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB -3. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 7:53SEA +15% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB -3. Touchback.
Q3 · 2:39SEA +12% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right intended for 81-J.Deguara INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Adams [94-R.Green] at SEA -5. Touchback.
Q2 · 1:07SEA +11% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 13-A.Lazard (22-T.Brown). Yard marker changed due to change in possession
Q1 · 14:12GB +10% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to SEA 20 for 41 yards (2-D.Reed).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Packers
Offensive plays	59	70
Total yards	208	393 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.30	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	42%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	81%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	0.05
Third downs	7/15	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

23/37, 292 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

1.7 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

20/40, 161 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-20.5 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

21 att, 66 yds, 2 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Alex CollinsRB

10 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

7/11 for 78 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Gerald EverettTE

8/8 for 63 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 36	8	51	4:11	Turnover on downs
2	SEA	SEA 32	4	9	1:43	Punt
3	GB	GB 22	5	19	2:57	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 9	6	15	3:18	Punt
5	GB	GB 7	4	3	0:58	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 49	4	6	1:16	Punt
7	GB	GB 9	14	82	6:06	Turnover on downs
8	SEA	SEA 26	6	26	2:26	Punt
9	GB	GB 17	11	46	6:02	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	SEA 35	7	30	1:03	End of half
11	SEA	SEA 25	7	11	2:04	Punt
12	GB	GB 13	4	9	2:02	Punt
13	SEA	SEA 38	11	50	3:09	Interception
14	GB	GB 20	9	65	5:15	Interception
15	SEA	SEA 20	4	-3	1:26	Punt
16	GB	GB 38	12	42	5:27	Touchdown
17	SEA	SEA 34	6	23	2:30	Interception
18	GB	GB 20	11	76	6:11	Touchdown
19	SEA	SEA 24	14	41	1:56	Turnover on downs

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	20/40	161	0	2	3	-20.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alex Collins	10	41	4.1	0.8
Russell Wilson	5	32	6.4	1.4
Travis Homer	1	2	2.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Gerald Everett	8	8	63	21%	1.5
DK Metcalf	3	8	26	21%	-5.8
Travis Homer	3	4	23	11%	1.4
Tyler Lockett	2	8	23	21%	-5.7
Will Dissly	2	2	22	5%	0.2
Alex Collins	1	1	8	3%	0.5
Penny Hart	0	2	0	5%	-1.0
Freddie Swain	0	3	0	8%	-2.1
D'Wayne Eskridge	1	2	-4	5%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordyn Brooks	8	4	0.0	0	0
Jamal Adams	4	4	0.0	1	1
Ugochukwu Amadi	6	1	0.0	0	1
Quandre Diggs	5	2	0.0	0	0
Bobby Wagner	2	4	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reed	2	2	0.0	0	2
Al Woods	1	3	0.0	0	0
Poona Ford	0	2	0.0	0	1
Rasheem Green	1	1	1.0	0	0
Benson Mayowa	1	1	0.0	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	23/37	292	0	1	1	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
A.J. Dillon	21	66	3.1	2	3.6
Aaron Jones	7	25	3.6	0	-1.4
Aaron Rodgers	2	8	4.0	0	0.3
Patrick Taylor	2	7	3.5	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	7	11	78	31%	0.4
A.J. Dillon	2	2	62	6%	5.0
Aaron Jones	4	6	61	17%	3.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	2	41	6%	3.1
Randall Cobb	3	4	21	11%	0.4
Marcedes Lewis	2	2	10	6%	0.2
Josiah Deguara	2	3	9	9%	-4.6
Allen Lazard	1	4	6	11%	-3.9
Tyler Davis	1	1	4	3%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	5	0	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	4	0	0.0	0	1
Krys Barnes	3	1	0.0	0	0
Henry Black	4	0	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	3	1	0.0	1	3
Jonathan Garvin	3	0	0.0	0	0
Whitney Mercilus	3	0	1.0	0	0
Preston Smith	1	1	1.0	0	0
Rashan Gary	2	0	1.0	0	0
Kenny Clark	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -3
Closing total: 49.5
SEA moneyline: +151
GB moneyline: -168

Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 17 — under by 32.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: SEA 14 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Matt LaFleur