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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q3 7:53, 3rd and 10, on Kevin King — 15.3 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 17–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 7:53, Packers +15.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:53 · 3rd and 10
Kevin King
Packers
(7:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB -3. Touchback.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.40 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 3 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(7:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB -3. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mason Crosby's 27-yard field goal with 9:35 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Mason Crosby27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap S.WirtelLead never changed again+30–33 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryPackers
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 59 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Packers’s 70 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 1, Packers 5.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SEA's early-down pass rate, 79.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
SEA's pass rate over expected, +10.9 pts, is past their previous high of +7.7 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks10.9 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +13.0 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+2.08× that swing) · 59 snaps
Packers4.9 ptsright on their number · +1.2 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 86%
Tendencies room →Seahawks79.1%off script — passed early · +23.9 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+2.01× that swing) · 43 early downs
Packers54.5%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 4.8%.
Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 26%
Tendencies room →Seahawks12.8%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Packers10.4%inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
SEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.9 pts, 13.0 points above their season mean of -2.0 pts and 2.1 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
23/37, 292 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
1.7 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
20/40, 161 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-20.5 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
A.J. Dillon banked 6.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. DillonRB · Bell Cow Back | 26.8 | +6.3 | 49% | 36% | 6% | 0% | 21 car, 66 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 62 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.8 | −3.8 | 95% | 95% | 31% | 24% | 7/11, 78 yd |
| Gerald EverettTE · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +2.7 | 75% | 71% | 21% | 5% | 8/8, 63 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Receiving Back | 12.6 | −0.4 | 46% | 62% | 17% | 2% | 7 car, 25 yd · 4/6, 61 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 10.5 | −5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/37, 292 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 8 yd |
| Alex CollinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.9 | −0.1 | 49% | 35% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 41 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 5.6 | −16.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/40, 161 yd, 2 INT · 5 car, 32 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −8.8 | 74% | 63% | 21% | 24% | 3/8, 26 yd |
| Travis HomerRB · Receiving Back | 5.5 | −1.2 | 51% | 54% | 11% | 3% | 1 car, 2 yd · 3/4, 23 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −1.8 | 68% | 69% | 11% | 3% | 3/4, 21 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +1.5 | 66% | 67% | 6% | 28% | 1/2, 41 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Featured Receiver | 4.3 | −10.6 | 95% | 85% | 21% | 39% | 2/8, 23 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.4 | 52% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.4 | 57% | 44% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −2.5 | 34% | 41% | 9% | 6% | 2/3, 9 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −5.1 | 59% | 59% | 11% | 32% | 1/4, 6 yd |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 16% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 0.7 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D'Wayne EskridgeWR | 0.6 | −3.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Malik TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Freddie SwainWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.9 | 67% | 67% | 8% | 14% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Penny HartWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.4 | 28% | 27% | 5% | 7% | 0/2, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB -3. Touchback.
Q3 7:53 · Seahawks · 3rd & 10 at GB 12 · gained nothing · -4.71 EP · −17.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 82 yards from the GB 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks0
Packers3Seahawks0Packers9Seahawks0Packers10Seahawks0Packers16Seahawks0Packers17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/40 | 161 | 0 | 2 | 3 | −20.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Travis Homer |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | 8 | 8 | 63 | 0 | 21% | +1.5 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Adams | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ugochukwu Amadi |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/37 | 292 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_SEA_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 17 — under by 32.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| −5.8 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 11% | +1.4 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 21% | −5.7 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Penny Hart | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Freddie Swain | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.1 |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 5% | −2.3 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Quandre Diggs | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Al Woods | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poona Ford | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rasheem Green | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benson Mayowa | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Dillon | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 2 | +3.6 |
| Aaron Jones | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 78 | 0 | 31% | +0.4 |
| A.J. Dillon | 2 | 2 | 62 | 0 | 6% | +5.0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 17% | +3.0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 6% | +3.1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 11% | +0.4 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | −4.6 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 11% | −3.9 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Krys Barnes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Black | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jonathan Garvin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Whitney Mercilus | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
