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polling · 300s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
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2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 10
It turned at Q2 0:02, 4th and 6, on Mike Evans — 17.8 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Washington Commanders 29–19. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, Buccaneers +17.8% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:02 · 4th and 6
Mike Evans
Buccaneers
(:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at WAS 25 for 22 yards (23-W.Jackson). PENALTY on WAS-23-W.Jackson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 13 yards, enforced at WAS 25.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 11 of 19 on third down, against Buccaneers at 4 of 10 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 23.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 43 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at WAS 25 for 22 yards (23-W.Jackson). PENALTY on WAS-23-W.Jackson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 13 yards, enforced at WAS 25.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Joey Slye's 46-yard field goal with 10:01 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Joey Slye46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.CheesemanLead never changed again+30–3
Mike Evans40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Brady · kick no good, wide left+619–2310 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryCommanders
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 47 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Commanders’s 72 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Commanders 5.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
WAS's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, is past their previous low of 10.2% in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 28 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers5.6 ptsright on their number · −2.5 vs their 8.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 47 snaps
Commanders2.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 90%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers71.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their 64.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 35 early downs
Commanders48.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.7%.
Commanders50.0%inside their normal wobble · +14.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±25.4 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers20.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Commanders2.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
WAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 12.5 points below their season mean of 15.5% and 1.8 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
26/32, 256 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.7 expected points added · +12.3% completion over expected
Passing · TB
23/34, 220 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-2.9 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mike Evans banked 8.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio GibsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.8 | −0.9 | 63% | 45% | 6% | 5% | 24 car, 64 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Leonard FournetteRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.2 | −3.9 | 65% | 53% | 27% | 9% | 11 car, 47 yd · 8/9, 45 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | +0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/32, 256 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 15 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Featured Receiver | 15.0 | +3.3 | 67% | 63% | 19% | 40% | 1 car, 4 yd · 3/6, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.2 | +8.5 | 100% | 100% | 9% | 21% | 2/3, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 13.0 | −3.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/34, 220 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 12.7 | −0.7 | 96% | 94% | 24% | 18% | 7/8, 57 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.9 | −1.2 | 96% | 93% | 25% | 25% | 6/8, 59 yd |
| J.D. McKissicRB · Receiving Back | 7.9 | +0.4 | 38% | 50% | 13% | 1% | 2 car, 4 yd · 4/4, 35 yd |
| Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | −0.6 | 63% | 79% | 9% | 14% | 1/3, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −0.2 | 45% | 48% | 13% | 10% | 3/4, 30 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +0.6 | 64% | 53% | 9% | 8% | 3/3, 25 yd |
| Tyler JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −2.3 | 69% | 65% | 15% | 14% | 3/5, 17 yd |
| Jaelon DardenWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −0.4 | 18% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −1.3 | 27% | 23% | 6% | 7% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Giovani BernardRB | 1.8 | −6.2 | 29% | 38% | 9% | 7% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/3, 4 yd |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 52% | 63% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 0.7 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| O.J. HowardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 58% | 47% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:02 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 3 at WAS 40 · gained 40 · +4.67 EP · +10.2% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 80 yards from the WAS 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers0
Commanders3Buccaneers0Commanders6Buccaneers0Commanders12Buccaneers0Commanders13Buccaneers3Commanders13Buccaneers3Commanders16Buccaneers6Commanders16Buccaneers12Commanders16Buccaneers13Commanders16Buccaneers13Commanders22Buccaneers13Commanders23Buccaneers19Commanders23Buccaneers19Commanders29Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/34 | 220 | 2 | 2 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Tom Brady |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 2 | 3 | 62 | 1 | 9% | +2.7 |
| Chris Godwin | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 11 | 5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 26/32 | 256 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +8.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_10_TB_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 48 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +2.0 |
| +1.9 |
| Leonard Fournette | 8 | 9 | 45 | 0 | 27% | +1.3 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 6% | −2.4 |
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 15% | −1.8 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 9% | −0.7 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9% | −2.3 |
| 7 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vita Vea | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ndamukong Suh | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 24 | 64 | 2.7 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Jaret Patterson | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | −1.7 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 25% | +2.8 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 6 | 56 | 1 | 19% | +3.3 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 13% | +3.6 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 13% | +2.0 |
| John Bates | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 9% | +2.0 |
| Dax Milne | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6% | −2.6 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +1.3 |
| Cam Sims | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamren Curl | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamin Davis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cole Holcomb | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| David Mayo | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Landon Collins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Allen | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
