2021 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 14, 2021 · FedExField

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Washington CommandersWinner

TB -10 upsetU 51 ✓Buccaneers closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 29–19. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, WAS +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:02TB — WAS TB ball · 4th & 6WAS 71%

(:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at WAS 25 for 22 yards (23-W.Jackson). PENALTY on WAS-23-W.Jackson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 13 yards, enforced at WAS 25.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:02WAS +18% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at WAS 25 for 22 yards (23-W.Jackson). PENALTY on WAS-23-W.Jackson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 13 yards, enforced at WAS 25.
Q4 · 12:38TB +14% win prob(12:38) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 15-D.Milne to WAS 49 for 9 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at WAS 47. 31-A.Winfield to WAS 47 for no gain (17-T.McLaurin).
Q4 · 11:02WAS +13% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:00TB +11% win prob(:00) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Commanders
Offensive plays	47	72
Total yards	273	320 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	72%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	4/10	11/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	5
Turnovers	2	2

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

26/32, 256 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · +12.3% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

23/34, 220 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-2.9 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

24 att, 64 yds, 2 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

11 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

2/3 for 62 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

6/8 for 59 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	5	7	1:27	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 40	8	32	3:36	Turnover on downs
3	TB	TB 25	3	0	0:11	Interception
4	WAS	TB 28	7	18	3:50	Turnover on downs
5	TB	TB 24	6	11	2:36	Interception
6	WAS	TB 46	11	46	5:59	Touchdown
7	TB	TB 25	14	68	5:37	Turnover on downs
8	WAS	WAS 25	12	59	5:46	Turnover on downs
9	TB	TB 30	9	50	0:58	End of half
10	WAS	WAS 25	5	3	1:23	Punt
11	TB	TB 38	4	8	1:35	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 8	4	-6	1:16	Fumble
13	TB	WAS 43	5	43	2:00	Touchdown
14	WAS	WAS 29	10	58	4:25	Touchdown
15	TB	TB 33	8	25	4:27	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 17	5	30	2:27	Fumble
17	TB	WAS 47	4	47	1:32	Touchdown
18	WAS	WAS 20	21	80	10:26	Touchdown
19	TB	TB 25	3	14	0:29	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 80 scrimmage yards over 21 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	23/34	220	2	2	0	-2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Leonard Fournette	11	47	4.3	-1.2
Giovani Bernard	1	4	4.0	1.1
Tom Brady	1	2	2.0	2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	2	3	62	1	9%	2.7
Chris Godwin	7	8	57	0	24%	1.9
Leonard Fournette	8	9	45	0	27%	1.3
Jaelon Darden	1	2	29	0	6%	-2.4
Tyler Johnson	3	5	17	0	15%	-1.8
Cameron Brate	1	3	6	1	9%	-0.7
Giovani Bernard	1	3	4	0	9%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	11	5	2.0	0
Lavonte David	5	9	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	7	4	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	4	0.0	0
Anthony Nelson	2	2	1.0	0
Jamel Dean	3	1	0.0	0
Mike Edwards	4	0	0.0	1
Vita Vea	2	1	0.0	0
Rakeem Nunez-Roches	1	1	0.0	0
Ndamukong Suh	2	0	1.0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	26/32	256	1	0	5	8.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	24	64	2.7	2	0.6
Taylor Heinicke	3	15	5.0	0	-0.7
Jaret Patterson	4	7	1.8	0	-1.7
DeAndre Carter	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
J.D. McKissic	2	4	2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	6	8	59	0	25%	2.8
DeAndre Carter	3	6	56	1	19%	3.3
J.D. McKissic	4	4	35	0	13%	3.6
Ricky Seals-Jones	3	4	30	0	13%	2.0
John Bates	3	3	25	0	9%	2.0
Dax Milne	2	2	22	0	6%	-2.6
Antonio Gibson	2	2	14	0	6%	1.3
Cam Sims	2	2	10	0	6%	0.1
Adam Humphries	1	1	5	0	3%	1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Kamren Curl	4	4	0	1
Jamin Davis	4	1	0	0
Kendall Fuller	1	3	0	1
Cole Holcomb	3	1	0	0
Bobby McCain	1	2	1	1
David Mayo	3	0	0	0
Landon Collins	3	0	0	0
William Jackson	3	0	1	1
Jonathan Allen	1	1	0	0
Terry McLaurin	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -10
Closing total: 51
TB moneyline: -435
WAS moneyline: +359

Buccaneers closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 48 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: TB 14 days · WAS 14 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera