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Arizona Cardinals 23 at Seattle Seahawks 13. Final.
Seahawks -2.5 upsetU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 11
Arizona Cardinals 23, Seahawks 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:03, 3rd and 3, on Matt Prater — 10.4 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:03 · 3rd and 3
Matt Prater
Seahawks
(:03) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Seahawks closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 23–13. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, Seahawks +10.4% win probability on one snap.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyler LockettSeahawksQ2 1:39(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett to ARI 27 for 36 yards (58-J.Hicks). PENALTY on ARI-34-J.Thompson, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at ARI 27.
9.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ3 3:03(3:03) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 24, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 18-F.Swain to SEA 27 for 3 yards (33-A.Hamilton).
8.9pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 2 of 10 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Cardinals162 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:03) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Swing +10.4 for SeahawksExpected points +2.59 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:03ARI +10% win prob(:03) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.
2nd · 1:39SEA +9% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett to ARI 27 for 36 yards (58-J.Hicks). PENALTY on ARI-34-J.Thompson, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at ARI 27.
3rd · 3:03SEA +9% win prob(3:03) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 24, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 18-F.Swain to SEA 27 for 3 yards (33-A.Hamilton).
4th · 8:56SEA +8% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at ARI 26 for 48 yards (34-J.Thompson).
2nd · 5:16SEA +8% win prob(5:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to SEA 46 for 1 yard (56-J.Brooks; 99-A.Woods). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
4th · 4:14SEA +7% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to SEA 19 for 20 yards (23-S.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zach Ertz's 1-yard touchdown catch with 2:51 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Cardinals ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Cardinals: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.12Seahawks: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.34Cardinals: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.16Seahawks: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.04Seahawks: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 77 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 49 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Seahawks 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.6 pts in week 10 against +8.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
77 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: +10.9 pts in week 10 against −8.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.8% in week 10 against 20.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Seahawks12.8%
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.8 pts, 8.6 points above their season mean of 0.2 pts and 1.8 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
64Sean HarlowG · Every snap100%83 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesT · Every snap100%83 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%83 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%83 snaps
12Colt McCoyQB · Every snap100%83 snaps
73Max GarciaC · Full-time87%72 snaps
6James ConnerRB · Full-time82%68 snaps
85Antoine WesleyWR · Heavy rotation76%63 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation76%63 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation73%61 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Heavy rotation69%57 snaps
4Rondale MooreWR · Rotational39%32 snaps
81Darrell DanielsTE · Rotational35%29 snaps
84Demetrius HarrisTE · Situational22%18 snaps
26Eno BenjaminRB · Situational22%18 snaps
79Josh JonesG · Situational19%16 snaps
66Joshua MilesT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
James WigginsFSJustin PughGKyler MurrayQBJonathan WardRBDeAndre HopkinsWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matt Prater−10% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Q2 0:03 · Cardinals · 3rd & 3 at SEA 21 · gained nothing · -2.59 EP · −10.2% win probability
160 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 92 yards from the ARI 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.3365%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1676%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0853%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0944%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.2733%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 49
Cardinals6Seahawks0
Cardinals7Seahawks0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 39
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Cardinals 37
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 5 to the Cardinals 7
Cardinals7Seahawks3
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 45 to the Cardinals 9
Cardinals13Seahawks3
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Seahawks 1
Cardinals13Seahawks6
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Cardinals 9
No good13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 21
3rd quarter40 plays
Cardinals16Seahawks6
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Seahawks 33
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 40
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 41
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 40
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 33
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 43
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Cardinals 24
4th quarter49 plays
No good12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 18
Cardinals16Seahawks12
Cardinals16Seahawks13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Cardinals 2
Cardinals22Seahawks13
Cardinals23Seahawks13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Seahawks 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 35
Punt7 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -2.5
Closing total
46
Cardinals moneyline
+135
Seahawks moneyline
-150
Seahawks closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 36 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 42°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Pete Carroll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 7:40SEA +7% win prob(7:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Dallas right end pushed ob at ARI 2 for 15 yards (23-R.Alford).
1st · 3:28SEA +7% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete short right to 18-A.Green [94-R.Green]. PENALTY on SEA-22-T.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at SEA 16 - No Play.
