2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · Lumen Field

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

SEA -2.5 upsetU 46 ✓Seahawks closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 23–13. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, ARI +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:03ARI — SEA ARI ball · 3rd & 3ARI 82%

(:03) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:03ARI +10% win prob(:03) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Q2 · 1:39SEA +9% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett to ARI 27 for 36 yards (58-J.Hicks). PENALTY on ARI-34-J.Thompson, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at ARI 27.
Q3 · 3:03SEA +9% win prob(3:03) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 24, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 18-F.Swain to SEA 27 for 3 yards (33-A.Hamilton).
Q4 · 8:56SEA +8% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at ARI 26 for 48 yards (34-J.Thompson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Seahawks
Offensive plays	77	49
Total yards	415 (edge)	266
Yards per play	5.4	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	55% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	61%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34 (edge)	-0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0	0

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Colt McCoyQB

35/44, 328 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.8 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

14/26, 207 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-4.9 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

21 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Alex CollinsRB

10 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

4/5 for 115 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Zach ErtzTE

8/9 for 88 yds, 2 TD

20% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	6	12	2:46	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 18	17	68	9:27	Touchdown
3	SEA	SEA 25	11	42	5:08	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 5	4	-1	2:11	Punt
5	SEA	ARI 45	7	36	2:05	Turnover on downs
6	ARI	ARI 8	15	92	6:31	Touchdown
7	SEA	SEA 23	8	54	0:47	Turnover on downs
8	ARI	ARI 25	10	54	1:05	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 40	6	25	2:03	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	SEA 25	6	15	2:09	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 20	5	21	2:03	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 22	6	18	2:04	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 22	6	23	3:47	Punt
14	SEA	SEA 27	5	6	1:28	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 15	14	67	7:30	Turnover on downs
16	SEA	SEA 26	6	74	1:51	Touchdown
17	ARI	ARI 33	12	64	4:45	Touchdown
18	SEA	SEA 25	6	8	1:04	Turnover on downs
19	ARI	SEA 33	4	2	1:00	Punt
20	SEA	SEA 20	1	1	0:16	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 92 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Colt McCoy	35/44	328	2	0	2	15.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	21	62	3.0	1	-0.8
Colt McCoy	6	18	3.0	0	-2.0
Eno Benjamin	6	15	2.5	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	8	9	88	2	20%	8.8
A.J. Green	4	7	78	0	16%	4.9
Rondale Moore	11	11	51	0	25%	2.3
Antoine Wesley	4	4	44	0	9%	2.0
James Conner	5	6	37	0	14%	1.1
Christian Kirk	2	5	25	0	11%	-1.0
Eno Benjamin	1	1	5	0	2%	1.3
Darrell Daniels	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Hicks	3	4	0.0	1
Isaiah Simmons	1	4	1.0	0
Jalen Thompson	4	1	0.0	1
Budda Baker	2	2	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	4	0	2.0	0
Markus Golden	3	0	1.0	0
Zach Allen	1	2	0.0	1
Dennis Gardeck	1	1	0.0	0
Leki Fotu	1	1	0.0	0
Robert Alford	2	0	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	14/26	207	0	0	4	-4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	10	36	3.6	0	-1.4
DeeJay Dallas	4	25	6.3	1	2.8
Rashaad Penny	2	19	9.5	0	0.7
Travis Homer	1	4	4.0	0	-1.2
Russell Wilson	2	2	1.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	4	5	115	20%	4.9
Gerald Everett	3	4	37	16%	2.2
DK Metcalf	4	8	31	32%	-1.1
Will Dissly	1	3	16	12%	0.8
Colby Parkinson	1	1	6	4%	-0.1
DeeJay Dallas	1	2	2	8%	-1.6
Penny Hart	0	1	0	4%	-1.6
Freddie Swain	0	1	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordyn Brooks	9	4	0.0	0
Bobby Wagner	5	8	0.0	0
Sidney Jones	7	2	0.0	1
Quandre Diggs	4	4	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	4	4	0.0	0
Rasheem Green	2	2	0.0	1
Bryan Mone	1	3	1.5	0
Benson Mayowa	1	3	0.0	0
Poona Ford	1	2	0.5	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -2.5
Closing total: 46
ARI moneyline: +135
SEA moneyline: -150

Seahawks closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 36 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: ARI 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.