2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · Soldier Field

Baltimore RavensWinner

Chicago Bears

BAL -5 no coverU 43 ✓Ravens closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:48, CHI +40% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:48BAL — CHI CHI ball · 4th & 11BAL 74%

(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:48CHI +40% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 0:33CHI +28% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins to CHI 3 for 29 yards (26-D.Bush) [59-C.Marsh].
Q3 · 8:12CHI +20% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 9:17BAL +18% win prob(9:17) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 14. 38-Ta.Gipson to CHI 14 for no gain (89-M.Andrews). Penalty on BAL-28-L.Murray, Offensive Holding, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bears
Offensive plays	76	58
Total yards	299	353 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	-0.04 (edge)
Success rate	41% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	58%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	6	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Bears outgained Ravens 353–299 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

26/36, 219 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-6.9 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Andy DaltonQB

11/23, 201 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.0 expected points added · -15.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

14 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Devonta FreemanRB

16 att, 49 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

5/16 for 121 yds, 1 TD

48% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Marquise GoodwinWR

4/8 for 104 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	9	24	4:02	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 14	10	64	4:59	Turnover on downs
3	BAL	BAL 30	7	8	4:04	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 20	4	3	0:58	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 31	9	30	4:52	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 20	5	44	2:38	Fumble
7	BAL	BAL 34	10	49	6:16	Turnover on downs
8	CHI	CHI 21	7	10	1:04	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 36	11	55	1:05	Turnover on downs
10	CHI	CHI 26	2	5	0:02	End of half
11	CHI	CHI 25	8	31	3:38	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 15	8	16	2:36	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 17	3	83	0:44	Touchdown
14	BAL	BAL 21	5	6	1:45	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 20	6	21	1:11	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 14	10	6	5:48	Punt
17	CHI	CHI 40	4	4	1:52	Turnover on downs
18	BAL	CHI 49	6	27	3:15	Interception
19	CHI	CHI 14	4	3	1:42	Punt
20	BAL	CHI 45	7	17	3:48	Turnover on downs
21	CHI	CHI 25	12	80	2:00	Touchdown
22	BAL	BAL 28	7	61	1:19	Touchdown
23	CHI	CHI 25	5	5	0:22	Defensive touchdown

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 83 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	26/36	219	0	1	6	-6.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devonta Freeman	16	49	3.1	1	-1.1
Tyler Huntley	7	40	5.7	0	2.0
Latavius Murray	10	32	3.2	0	-1.0
Patrick Ricard	1	2	2.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	8	10	73	28%	2.1
Sammy Watkins	3	4	48	11%	5.2
Devin Duvernay	4	6	37	17%	-1.0
Devonta Freeman	6	6	31	17%	1.3
Rashod Bateman	3	6	29	17%	-1.2
Latavius Murray	2	2	1	6%	-0.9
Patrick Ricard	0	1	0	3%	-1.0
Nick Boyle	0	1	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Patrick Queen	4	3	0.0	0
Marlon Humphrey	4	1	0.0	1
Tyus Bowser	4	1	2.0	1
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	2	0.0	0
Chris Westry	3	0	0.0	2
Brandon Stephens	3	0	0.0	0
Justin Houston	1	2	1.0	0
Justin Ellis	1	2	0.0	0
Kristian Welch	1	1	0.0	0
Calais Campbell	1	1	0.0	1

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	11/23	201	2	0	1	6.0
Justin Fields	4/11	79	0	0	2	-4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	14	58	4.1	-3.4
Justin Fields	4	23	5.8	-0.6
Jakeem Grant	1	11	11.0	1.2
Khalil Herbert	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	5	16	121	1	48%	2.6
Marquise Goodwin	4	8	104	1	24%	4.8
Jimmy Graham	2	3	25	0	9%	0.6
Cole Kmet	1	2	12	0	6%	0.2
David Montgomery	1	1	9	0	3%	-0.1
Jakeem Grant	1	1	6	0	3%	0.5
Damiere Byrd	1	2	3	0	6%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	13	4	0.0	0	0
DeAndre Houston-Carson	5	2	0.0	0	1
Alec Ogletree	4	3	0.0	0	0
Trevis Gipson	4	1	1.0	0	0
Khyiris Tonga	3	2	0.0	0	0
Robert Quinn	4	1	3.5	0	0
Eddie Goldman	4	1	0.5	0	0
Kindle Vildor	4	0	1.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	3	1	0.0	1	1
Angelo Blackson	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -5
Closing total: 43
BAL moneyline: -226
CHI moneyline: +199

Ravens closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43; the game landed 29 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: BAL 10 days · CHI 13 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Matt Nagy