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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:09 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 16, Bears 13 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:48, 4th and 11, on Marquise Goodwin — 39.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:48 · 4th and 11
Marquise Goodwin
Bears
(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Ravens closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:48, Bears +39.8% win probability on one snap.
39.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darnell MooneyBearsQ3 8:12(8:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.0pts
Sammy WatkinsRavensQ4 0:33(:33) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins to CHI 3 for 29 yards (26-D.Bush) [59-C.Marsh].
27.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Ravens at 4 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Ravens won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 11 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Bears at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Ravens172 of 184 plays carry both curves
(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Swing +39.8 for BearsExpected points +6.70 for BearsThe model had Bears 5 points higher than the market did.play 165
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:48CHI +40% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
4th · 0:33CHI +28% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins to CHI 3 for 29 yards (26-D.Bush) [59-C.Marsh].
3rd · 8:12CHI +20% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:17BAL +18% win prob(9:17) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 14. 38-Ta.Gipson to CHI 14 for no gain (89-M.Andrews). Penalty on BAL-28-L.Murray, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 0:35BAL +17% win prob(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Duvernay. PENALTY on BAL-78-A.Villanueva, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 22 - No Play.
4th · 1:27CHI +17% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep right to 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at CHI 30 for 21 yards (22-K.Vildor).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Devonta Freeman's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 0:25 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd2:15Justin Tucker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+33–0
2nd0:05Justin Tucker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+36–0
3rd8:12Darnell Mooney·60-yd TD catch60-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+76–7
4th3:45Justin Tucker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+39–7
4th1:48Marquise Goodwin·49-yd TD catch49-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton · two-point no good+69–13
4th0:25Devonta Freeman·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+716–13
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBears
Ravens5–4Bears
299Total yards353
3.9Yards per play6.1
41%Success rate34%
44%Third-down rate18%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays10
21First downs14
6Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Ravens: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.04Bears: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Ravens: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Ravens: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.13Bears: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 76 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bears’s 58 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Bears 3.
NoteBears outgained Ravens 353-299 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bears18.2%
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -10.2 pts, 9.0 points below their season mean of -1.2 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%81 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%81 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%81 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Every snap100%81 snaps
2Tyler HuntleyQB · Every snap100%81 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap99%80 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation74%60 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation72%58 snaps
12Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation70%57 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation59%48 snaps
33Devonta FreemanRB · Heavy rotation58%47 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Heavy rotation54%44 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Rotational40%32 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational37%30 snaps
11James ProcheWR · Situational15%12 snaps
85Eric TomlinsonTE · Situational15%12 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational6%5 snaps
74Tyre PhillipsG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jimmy SmithCBAnthony AverettCBBrandon WilliamsNTLamar JacksonQBCedric OgbuehiTMiles BoykinWRMarquise BrownWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+47% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 84-M.Goodwin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BAL-99-O.Oweh, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Q4 1:48 · Bears · 4th & 11 at BAL 49 · gained 49 · +6.70 EP · +47.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 83 yards from the CHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
37%
Yards
652
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.0968%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.1083%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.6455%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2067%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17+0.3329%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1263%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5-0.230%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bears 48
No good10 plays, from the Bears 14 to the Ravens 16
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 49
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 23
The period ended3 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 35
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Bears 39
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Ravens 36
Ravens3Bears0
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Bears 17
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 36
Ravens6Bears0
Field goal14 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Bears 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Ravens 49
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 15 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Ravens6Bears6
Ravens6Bears7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 40
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 27
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 36
The period ended11 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 35
4th quarter58 plays
Punt2 plays
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 49 to the Bears 22
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 14 to the Bears 17
Ravens9Bears7
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Bears 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Ravens9Bears13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Ravens 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Ravens15Bears13
Ravens16Bears13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Bears 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
