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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 11
It turned at Q1 12:14, 3rd and 6, on Joe Burrow — 17.0 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:14 · 3rd and 6
Joe Burrow
Raiders
(12:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 33 for -7 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue) [91-Y.Ngakoue], RECOVERED by LV-32-D.Leavitt at CIN 39. 32-D.Leavitt to CIN 9 for 30 yards (85-T.Higgins).
Cincinnati Bengals 32–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:14, Raiders +17.0% win probability on one snap.
17.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bengals won this one — 8 of 16 on third down, against Raiders at 1 of 7 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.12 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(12:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 33 for -7 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue) [91-Y.Ngakoue], RECOVERED by LV-32-D.Leavitt at CIN 39. 32-D.Leavitt to CIN 9 for 30 yards (85-T.Higgins).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Joe Mixon's 11-yard rushing touchdown with 4:24 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ja'Marr Chase6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrow · kick no good, wide right+622–1310 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryRaiders
Bengals ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 70 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Raiders’s 47 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Raiders 3.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's pass rate over expected, −5.3 pts, is past their previous low of −0.6 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
47 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals-4.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 70 snaps
Raiders-5.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.4 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 90%
Tendencies room →Bengals40.7%leaned — ran early · −13.6 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 54 early downs
Raiders60.0%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 60.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33% to 86%
Fourth Down room →Bengals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.5%.
Raiders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −26.5 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 33%
Tendencies room →Bengals17.2%inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Raiders14.3%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
CIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 40.7%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 54.3% and 1.2 times their own 11.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
19/27, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-8.9 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
20/29, 148 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2.8 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Joe Mixon banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.3 | +9.1 | 72% | 46% | 0% | — | 30 car, 123 yd, 2 TD |
| Darren WallerTE · Alpha Receiver | 18.6 | +3.0 | 94% | 97% | 32% | 37% | 7/8, 116 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Featured Receiver | 13.0 | −2.8 | 92% | 89% | 21% | 57% | 2 car, 8 yd · 3/6, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler BoydWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | −3.5 | 70% | 77% | 29% | 25% | 1 car, 14 yd · 6/8, 49 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Committee Back | 11.1 | −3.8 | 66% | 66% | 28% | 2% | 9 car, 37 yd · 5/7, 24 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | −7.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/29, 148 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 11 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +3.9 | 36% | 31% | 8% | 15% | 1/2, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 8.6 | −3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 215 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | +0.9 | 72% | 79% | 16% | 6% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/4, 30 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Receiving Back | 5.1 | −0.6 | 15% | 20% | 11% | 0% | 2 car, 3 yd · 3/3, 18 yd |
| Kenyan DrakeRB | 3.9 | −1.9 | 32% | 34% | 8% | 0% | 5 car, 23 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −1.1 | 80% | 83% | 11% | 7% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −1.6 | 72% | 83% | 8% | 32% | 1/2, 20 yd |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.7 | 73% | 83% | 11% | 4% | 2/3, 9 yd |
| Mike ThomasWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.5 | 11% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Chris EvansRB | 1.7 | 0.0 | 14% | 26% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −2.0 | 50% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Stanley MorganWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.1 | 16% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −0.3 | 34% | 34% | 0% | — | 1 car, 4 yd |
| Peyton BarberRB | 0.3 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.7 | 83% | 76% | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 33 for -7 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue) [91-Y.Ngakoue], RECOVERED by LV-32-D.Leavitt at CIN 39. 32-D.Leavitt to CIN 9 for 30 yards (85-T.Higgins).
Q1 12:14 · Bengals · 3rd & 6 at CIN 40 · lost 1 · -6.29 EP · −14.6% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 75 yards from the LV 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bengals0
Raiders3Bengals3Raiders3Bengals3Raiders6Bengals9Raiders6Bengals10Raiders6Bengals13Raiders6Bengals16Raiders6Bengals16Raiders12Bengals16Raiders13Bengals22Raiders13Bengals28Raiders13Bengals29Raiders13Bengals32Raiders13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 20/29 | 148 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 30 | 123 | 4.1 | 2 | −2.0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 29% | +6.3 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 21% | +3.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vonn Bell | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 19/27 | 215 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −8.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_11_CIN_LV
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 45 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 11% | +1.9 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | −0.0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11% | +0.2 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
| 37 |
| 4.1 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 7 | 8 | 116 | 0 | 32% | +0.6 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 16% | +2.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 28% | −1.8 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8% | −0.2 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Perryman | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Johnathan Abram | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Littleton | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Facyson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Carl Nassib | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallin Leavitt | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Hayward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
