2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -2.5 ✓U 56 ✓17 mph windChiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Kansas City Chiefs 19–9. Biggest swing: Q3 2:42, KC +7% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:42DAL — KC KC ball · 4th & 13KC 86%

(2:42) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:42KC +7% win prob(2:42) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Q1 · 14:06DAL +7% win prob(14:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 85-N.Brown.
Q3 · 11:34DAL +6% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Kearse at DAL 30. 27-J.Kearse to KC 36 for 34 yards (13-B.Pringle).
Q1 · 9:05DAL +6% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 12 for -9 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark) [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by KC-95-C.Jones at DAL 20. 95-C.Jones to DAL 22 for -2 yards (78-T.Steele).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Chiefs
Offensive plays	64	64
Total yards	276	372 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.26	-0.07 (edge)
Success rate	36%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	-0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.14 (edge)
Third downs	5/15	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

23/37, 260 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.6 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

28/43, 216 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-15.4 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

12 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

7 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

9/11 for 77 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

5/8 for 74 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 26	5	8	1:12	Punt
2	KC	KC 14	10	81	3:47	Touchdown
3	DAL	DAL 25	4	-5	1:08	Fumble
4	KC	DAL 22	4	3	0:58	Turnover on downs
5	DAL	DAL 25	11	65	5:05	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 35	10	75	3:42	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 23	12	33	5:35	Punt
8	KC	KC 8	6	29	2:13	Punt
9	DAL	DAL 14	4	6	1:57	Punt
10	KC	KC 33	4	23	1:44	Punt
11	DAL	DAL 26	4	-5	0:56	Punt
12	KC	KC 45	2	-3	0:11	Fumble
13	DAL	KC 42	4	14	1:17	Interception
14	KC	KC 20	1	0	0:15	End of half
15	KC	KC 25	8	48	3:37	Interception
16	DAL	KC 36	7	24	2:02	Turnover on downs
17	KC	KC 36	5	-4	1:38	Punt
18	DAL	DAL 20	4	8	1:54	Punt
19	KC	KC 24	7	41	3:13	Turnover on downs
20	DAL	DAL 25	10	50	4:44	Turnover on downs
21	KC	KC 25	8	27	3:09	Turnover on downs
22	DAL	DAL 41	4	1	1:48	Punt
23	KC	KC 14	12	52	5:20	Punt
24	DAL	DAL 3	9	77	1:35	Interception
25	KC	KC 7	2	0	1:00	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 81 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	28/43	216	0	2	5	-15.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Pollard	7	50	7.1	0	0.6
Ezekiel Elliott	9	32	3.6	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Schultz	6	8	53	19%	2.7
Michael Gallup	5	10	44	24%	-0.3
Ezekiel Elliott	6	6	36	14%	-0.4
Cedrick Wilson	4	7	36	17%	0.7
Tony Pollard	2	2	20	5%	1.5
CeeDee Lamb	3	4	14	10%	-3.4
Malik Turner	1	2	11	5%	-3.8
Sean McKeon	1	1	2	2%	-0.3
Noah Brown	0	2	0	5%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Keanu Neal	4	3	0.0	0	0
Malik Hooker	5	0	0.0	0	0
Jayron Kearse	4	1	0.0	1	1
Anthony Brown	4	0	0.0	0	0
Carlos Watkins	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Donovan Wilson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Trevon Diggs	4	0	0.0	0	0
Micah Parsons	3	0	2.0	0	0
Tarell Basham	2	0	0.0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	23/37	260	0	1	3	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	12	63	5.3	1	1.9
Tyreek Hill	1	33	33.0	0	2.0
Darrel Williams	5	15	3.0	0	-1.1
Patrick Mahomes	7	11	1.6	0	-0.7
Travis Kelce	1	4	4.0	1	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	9	11	77	33%	3.5
Travis Kelce	5	8	74	24%	-1.2
Byron Pringle	1	2	37	6%	1.9
Mecole Hardman	2	3	25	9%	2.0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	2	13	6%	-0.1
Darrel Williams	1	3	11	9%	-1.5
Blake Bell	1	1	8	3%	-0.8
Noah Gray	1	1	8	3%	0.4
Josh Gordon	1	2	7	6%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Charvarius Ward	4	2	0.0	1	3
L'Jarius Sneed	5	1	0.0	1	3
Chris Jones	4	1	3.5	0	1
Juan Thornhill	3	2	0.0	0	1
Willie Gay	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jarran Reed	2	2	0.5	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	2	1	0.0	0	0
Rashad Fenton	3	0	0.0	0	0
Nick Bolton	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -2.5
Closing total: 56
DAL moneyline: +122
KC moneyline: -134

Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 56; the game landed 28 — under by 28.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: DAL 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Andy Reid

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.