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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas9
BY 10final margin
ChiefsKansas City19
Dallas Cowboys 9 at Kansas City Chiefs 19. Final.
Chiefs -2.5 ✓U 56 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 11
Kansas City Chiefs 19, Cowboys 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 2:42, 4th and 13, on Harrison Butker — 7.3 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:42 · 4th and 13
Harrison Butker
Chiefs
(2:42) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Chiefs closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Kansas City Chiefs 19–9. Biggest swing: Q3 2:42, Chiefs +7.3% win probability on one snap.
7.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dak PrescottChiefsQ1 14:06(14:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 85-N.Brown.
6.6pts
Jayron KearseCowboysQ3 11:34(11:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Kearse at DAL 30. 27-J.Kearse to KC 36 for 34 yards (13-B.Pringle).
5.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 1 chunk play.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.08 expected points per carry.
(2:42) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Swing +7.3 for ChiefsExpected points +2.29 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:42KC +7% win prob(2:42) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
1st · 14:06DAL +7% win prob(14:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 85-N.Brown.
3rd · 11:34DAL +6% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Kearse at DAL 30. 27-J.Kearse to KC 36 for 34 yards (13-B.Pringle).
1st · 9:05DAL +6% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 12 for -9 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark) [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by KC-95-C.Jones at DAL 20. 95-C.Jones to DAL 22 for -2 yards (78-T.Steele).
4th · 9:49DAL +6% win prob(9:49) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
2nd · 1:39DAL +6% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 39 for -6 yards (11-M.Parsons). FUMBLES (11-M.Parsons) [11-M.Parsons], RECOVERED by DAL-93-T.Basham at KC 42.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 10:07 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:07Travis Kelce·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+60–6
1st7:59Harrison Butker·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–9
1st2:54Greg Zuerlein·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+33–9
3rd9:24Greg Zuerlein·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+36–16
3rd2:42Harrison Butker·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+36–19
4th12:57Greg Zuerlein·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+39–19
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryChiefs
Cowboys0–8Chiefs
276Total yards372
4.3Yards per play5.8
36%Success rate47%
33%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
1Explosive plays8
15First downs21
5Sacks taken3
3Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Cowboys: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.07Chiefs: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.32Cowboys: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.18Chiefs: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Cowboys: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 64 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 64 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Chiefs 3.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +15.7 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
low through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 4 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 11.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 10.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 38.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +0.0 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Chiefs16.7%
inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 44.2 points below their season mean of 44.2% and 1.2 times their own 38.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Hill left+7% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:49) 10-T.Hill left end pushed ob at DAL 28 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).
Q1 11:49 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at KC 39 · gained 33 · +2.02 EP · +7.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 86 yards from the KC 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
41%
Yards
646
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2983%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1472%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2056%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.3050%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.5050%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cowboys 34
Cowboys0Chiefs6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Cowboys 4
Fumble lost4 plays
Cowboys0Chiefs9
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Cowboys 19
Cowboys3Chiefs9
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Chiefs 10
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 49
2nd quarter48 plays
Cowboys3Chiefs15
Cowboys3Chiefs16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 1
Punt15 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 46
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 37
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 20
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 38
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cowboys 34
Fumble lost2 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Chiefs 28
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Cowboys 37
Cowboys6Chiefs16
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Chiefs 12
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Chiefs 39
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 28
Cowboys6Chiefs19
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Cowboys 29
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Chiefs 35
4th quarter45 plays
Cowboys9Chiefs19
Field goal5 plays
No good8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Cowboys 33
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 41 to the Cowboys 44
Punt16 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Cowboys 33
Intercepted9 plays, from the Cowboys 3 to the Chiefs 20
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
