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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 11
It turned at Q1 6:47, 1st and 10, on A.St. — 8.6 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:47 · 1st and 10
A.St.
Browns
(6:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CLE 7 for 13 yards (94-P.Gustin). PENALTY on DET-8-J.Reynolds, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20 - No Play.
Cleveland Browns 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 6:47, Browns +8.6% win probability on one snap.
8.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Browns won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Lions at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Lions at 6 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — -0.15 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 39% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(6:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CLE 7 for 13 yards (94-P.Gustin). PENALTY on DET-8-J.Reynolds, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jarvis Landry's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Nick Chubb5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfield · kick blocked by L.Onwuzurike+60–134 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryBrowns
Browns ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 46 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Browns’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Lions 1, Browns 2.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-15.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.8 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 46 snaps
Browns-8.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their -4.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 83%
Tendencies room →Lions48.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 35 early downs
Browns49.0%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 134%
Fourth Down room →Lions—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 58.1%.
Browns—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 38%
Tendencies room →Lions6.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns8.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
DET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.4 pts, 9.8 points below their season mean of -5.5 pts and 1.3 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
15/29, 176 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-7.1 expected points added · -11.8% completion over expected
Passing · DET
15/23, 77 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-12.2 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
D'Andre Swift banked 10.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.6 | +10.6 | 73% | 83% | 17% | 0% | 14 car, 136 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 0 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.4 | +5.8 | 57% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 22 car, 130 yd · 2/2, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.2 | 0.0 | 65% | 67% | 29% | 36% | 1 car, 16 yd, 1 TD · 4/8, 26 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.1 | +0.5 | 88% | 96% | 35% | 39% | 6/8, 51 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Alpha Receiver | 9.3 | −2.8 | 65% | 55% | 25% | 15% | 4/7, 53 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 7.9 | −5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/29, 176 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 9 yd |
| Ja'Marcus BradleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +3.2 | 74% | 67% | 7% | 14% | 2/2, 46 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +0.6 | 85% | 91% | 17% | 8% | 4/4, 18 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −2.9 | 64% | 58% | 14% | 6% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/4, 20 yd |
| Rashard HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −4.9 | 72% | 70% | 18% | 24% | 1/5, 17 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 2.6 | −0.1 | 35% | 42% | 0% | — | 5 car, 26 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | 27% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Jason CabindaRB | 2.1 | +0.1 | 19% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 21 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jamaal WilliamsRB | 1.1 | −1.8 | 27% | 17% | 0% | — | 7 car, 11 yd |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.6 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Demetric FeltonRB | 0.2 | −1.3 | 16% | 18% | 0% | — | 3 car, 2 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 42% | 36% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.9 | 90% | 96% | 13% | 58% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 71% | 78% | 4% | 13% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tim BoyleQB · Starter QB | -0.9 | −6.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/23, 77 yd, 2 INT |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:04) (Shotgun) 32-D.Swift right tackle for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:04 · Lions · 3rd & 8 at DET 43 · gained 57 · +6.30 EP · +12.8% win probability
148 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 84 yards from the CLE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions0
Browns6Lions0Browns7Lions0Browns13Lions6Browns13Lions7Browns13Lions10Browns13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 15/23 | 77 | 0 | 2 | 0 | −12.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 136 | 9.7 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Jason Cabinda | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 35% | −0.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 17% | +0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy Walker III | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Amani Oruwariye |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 15/29 | 176 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_11_DET_CLE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -13, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 23 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17% | −6.1 |
| Jason Cabinda | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −3.6 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Bryant | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Brockers | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Marlowe | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Parker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 22 |
| 130 |
| 5.9 |
| 0 |
| +4.6 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Demetric Felton | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −2.8 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 25% | +1.1 |
| Ja'Marcus Bradley | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 | 7% | +2.2 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 29% | −6.6 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 14% | −1.5 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 18% | −1.6 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 7% | +2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Walker | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Johnson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Malik Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Garrett | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
