2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Detroit Lions

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -13 no coverU 42.5 ✓Browns closed -13, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 6:47, DET +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:47DET — CLE DET ball · 1st & 10CLE 67%

(6:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CLE 7 for 13 yards (94-P.Gustin). PENALTY on DET-8-J.Reynolds, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:47DET +9% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CLE 7 for 13 yards (94-P.Gustin). PENALTY on DET-8-J.Reynolds, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20 - No Play.
Q1 · 2:37CLE +8% win prob(2:37) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb left tackle ran ob at CLE 39 for 12 yards (21-T.Walker).
Q1 · 15:00DET +6% win prob(15:00) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to CLE 24 for -1 yards (91-M.Brockers, 31-D.Marlowe).
Q2 · 15:00CLE +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 80-J.Landry. 80-J.Landry scrambles up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Browns
Offensive plays	46	64
Total yards	245	351 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.24	-0.06 (edge)
Success rate	30%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.53	-0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	0.03
Third downs	3/11	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	13 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	2	2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

15/29, 176 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-7.1 expected points added · -11.8% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Tim BoyleQB

15/23, 77 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-12.2 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

14 att, 136 yds, 1 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

22 att, 130 yds, 0 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Austin HooperTE

4/7 for 53 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Receiving · DET

T.J. HockensonTE

6/8 for 51 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	8	28	3:05	Punt
2	DET	DET 19	7	18	3:36	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 13	1	0	0:11	Interception
4	DET	50	5	37	3:22	Interception
5	CLE	CLE 16	9	84	4:54	Touchdown
6	DET	DET 24	5	3	1:04	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 35	9	23	3:39	Turnover on downs
8	DET	DET 36	4	4	2:05	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 24	12	68	6:54	Touchdown
10	DET	DET 22	8	18	1:10	End of half
11	DET	DET 24	6	15	2:30	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 20	7	31	4:15	Punt
13	DET	DET 26	2	10	0:51	Interception
14	CLE	CLE 20	5	35	3:05	Punt
15	DET	DET 22	5	78	2:24	Touchdown
16	CLE	CLE 25	5	0	0:40	Punt
17	DET	DET 40	6	28	3:21	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 15	4	17	1:53	Interception
19	DET	CLE 34	4	9	1:54	Turnover on downs
20	CLE	CLE 25	8	21	3:51	Punt
21	DET	DET 16	5	25	2:47	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 20	9	44	2:29	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tim Boyle	15/23	77	0	2	0	-12.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	14	136	9.7	1	3.6
Jason Cabinda	2	21	10.5	0	-0.5
Jamaal Williams	7	11	1.6	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	6	8	51	35%	-0.7
Amon-Ra St. Brown	4	4	18	17%	0.4
Brock Wright	1	1	12	4%	0.8
D'Andre Swift	3	4	0	17%	-6.1
Jason Cabinda	0	1	0	4%	-0.6
Josh Reynolds	0	3	0	13%	-3.6
Kalif Raymond	0	1	0	4%	-1.5
Godwin Igwebuike	1	1	-4	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tracy Walker III	5	3	0.0	0	0
Will Harris	6	2	0.5	0	0
Alex Anzalone	2	4	0.0	0	2
Amani Oruwariye	5	0	0.0	1	1
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	3	2	0.0	0	0
Austin Bryant	2	2	0.5	0	0
Michael Brockers	1	3	0.0	0	0
Dean Marlowe	1	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Reynolds	2	0	0.0	0	0
A.J. Parker	1	1	0.0	1	1

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	15/29	176	1	2	1	-7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	22	130	5.9	0	4.6
D'Ernest Johnson	5	26	5.2	0	-0.5
Jarvis Landry	1	16	16.0	1	2.0
Baker Mayfield	4	9	2.3	0	-1.3
Demetric Felton	3	2	0.7	0	-2.8
David Njoku	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Hooper	4	7	53	0	25%	1.1
Ja'Marcus Bradley	2	2	46	0	7%	2.2
Jarvis Landry	4	8	26	0	29%	-6.6
David Njoku	2	4	20	0	14%	-1.5
Rashard Higgins	1	5	17	0	18%	-1.6
Nick Chubb	2	2	14	1	7%	2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Anthony Walker	4	3	0	0
Grant Delpit	2	4	0	0
John Johnson	5	1	0	0
Ronnie Harrison	2	2	0	0
Mack Wilson	1	3	0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	4	0	0	0
Malcolm Smith	2	1	1	1
Malik Jackson	2	1	0	1
Myles Garrett	1	1	0	0
Jarvis Landry	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -13
Closing total: 42.5
DET moneyline: +465
CLE moneyline: -590

Browns closed -13, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 23 — under by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 42°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: DET 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Kevin Stefanski