2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay Packers

Minnesota VikingsWinner

GB -1 upsetO 48 ✓DomePackers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:17, MIN +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:17GB — MIN GB ball · 1st & 10MIN 85%

(2:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:17MIN +24% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:55MIN +18% win prob(7:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-97-E.Griffen, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 2:24MIN +18% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:13MIN +14% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to MIN 25 for 39 yards (23-X.Woods).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Vikings
Offensive plays	53	65
Total yards	468 (edge)	414
Yards per play	8.8 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.45 (edge)	0.28
Success rate	49%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.66 (edge)	0.56
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.08
Third downs	7/11	9/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	20	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0	0

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

23/33, 385 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

23.3 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

24/35, 341 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

20.7 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

22 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

11 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

8/10 for 169 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 16.5 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

4/10 for 123 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	6	39	1:43	Turnover on downs
2	MIN	MIN 25	8	42	4:03	Turnover on downs
3	GB	GB 25	8	14	4:06	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 16	7	84	3:20	Touchdown
5	GB	GB 25	13	66	5:33	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 22	8	31	3:38	Touchdown
7	GB	GB 25	5	11	1:37	Punt
8	MIN	MIN 20	4	9	1:42	Punt
9	GB	GB 26	10	84	3:48	Touchdown
10	MIN	MIN 25	5	7	0:20	Punt
11	GB	GB 35	1	0	0:10	End of half
12	MIN	MIN 25	16	75	6:34	Touchdown
13	GB	GB 25	9	85	4:51	Touchdown
14	MIN	MIN 25	10	22	3:44	Punt
15	GB	GB 6	13	94	7:02	Touchdown
16	MIN	MIN 21	14	81	5:32	Touchdown
17	GB	GB 25	3	75	0:09	Touchdown
18	MIN	MIN 25	9	63	2:08	Turnover on downs

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 94 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	23/33	385	4	0	2	23.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
A.J. Dillon	11	53	4.8	0.2
Aaron Rodgers	2	21	10.5	1.1
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	11	11.0	0.5
Patrick Taylor	4	11	2.8	-1.1
Jordan Love	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	4	10	123	1	32%	6.2
Davante Adams	7	8	115	2	26%	11.9
A.J. Dillon	6	6	44	0	19%	1.7
Equanimeous St. Brown	2	2	43	0	6%	2.5
Josiah Deguara	2	2	37	1	6%	3.6
Randall Cobb	1	2	15	0	6%	1.3
Dominique Dafney	1	1	8	0	3%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Darnell Savage	6	1	0.0	2
De'Vondre Campbell	5	1	0.0	1
Rasul Douglas	5	0	0.0	0
Krys Barnes	3	2	0.0	0
Preston Smith	3	2	2.0	0
Eric Stokes	3	1	0.0	0
Tyler Lancaster	1	2	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	2	1	0.0	0
Kevin King	2	0	0.0	0
Kingsley Keke	1	1	0.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	24/35	341	3	0	2	20.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	22	86	3.9	1	1.1
Alexander Mattison	3	5	1.7	0	-1.5
Justin Jefferson	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4
C.J. Ham	1	0	0.0	0	-1.4
Kirk Cousins	2	-4	-2.0	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	8	10	169	2	29%	16.5
Adam Thielen	8	10	82	1	29%	7.9
Tyler Conklin	3	3	35	0	9%	2.5
Dalvin Cook	3	4	29	0	12%	0.4
K.J. Osborn	1	4	19	0	12%	0.4
Dede Westbrook	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.5
Alexander Mattison	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	3	7	0.0	0
Anthony Barr	3	6	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	5	0	0.0	1
Armon Watts	2	2	1.0	0
Harrison Smith	4	0	1.0	0
Patrick Peterson	3	0	0.0	0
Bashaud Breeland	1	2	0.0	1
James Lynch	2	0	0.0	0
Sheldon Richardson	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -1
Closing total: 48
GB moneyline: -111
MIN moneyline: +101

Packers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 65 — over by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: GB 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.