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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay31
BY 3final margin
VikingsMinnesota34
Green Bay Packers 31 at Minnesota Vikings 34. Final.
Packers -1 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 11
Minnesota Vikings 34, Packers 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:17, 1st and 10, on Marquez Valdes-Scantling — 24.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:17 · 1st and 10
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Packers
(2:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 48 ✓
Dome
Packers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:17, Packers +24.4% win probability on one snap.
24.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Davante AdamsPackersQ4 7:55(7:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-97-E.Griffen, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
18.3pts
Justin JeffersonVikingsQ4 2:24(2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Packers owned this one and still lost it — +0.45 expected points per snap, against Vikings at +0.28 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Packers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Vikings at 7 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Vikings won this one — 9 of 13 on third down, against Packers at 7 of 11 on third down.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Packers161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(2:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −24.4 for VikingsExpected points −5.77 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 5 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:17MIN +24% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:55MIN +18% win prob(7:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-97-E.Griffen, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 2:24MIN +18% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:13MIN +14% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to MIN 25 for 39 yards (23-X.Woods).
4th · 1:33MIN +13% win prob(1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at GB 19 for 26 yards (26-D.Savage).
1st · 2:40MIN +12% win prob(2:40) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to GB 1 for 56 yards (31-A.Amos). Minnesota challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Joseph's 29-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:22Mason Crosby·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap S.Wirtel+33–0
1st9:19Greg Joseph·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+33–3
1st1:51Dalvin Cook·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+63–9
4th0:02Greg Joseph·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+331–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers3–4Vikings
468Total yards414
8.8Yards per play6.4
49%Success rate51%
64%Third-down rate69%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays7
20First downs24
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Vikings ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.45Packers: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.28Vikings: +0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.66Packers: +0.66 expected points added per play
+0.56Vikings: +0.56 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Packers: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.08Vikings: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 53 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Vikings’s 65 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Vikings 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Vikings10.8%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 11.1 points above their season mean of 55.6% and 1.7 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+25% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:17 · Packers · 1st & 10 at GB 25 · gained 75 · +5.77 EP · +25.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 94 yards from the GB 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.24
Success rate
45%
Yards
877
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.5172%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.5464%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.0741%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2440%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2756%
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+0.4471%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Packers3Vikings0
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Packers3Vikings3
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 22
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 48
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Packers3Vikings9
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Packers 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 38
2nd quarter48 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Vikings 14
Packers3Vikings15
Packers3Vikings16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Packers 9
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 29
Packers9Vikings16
Packers10Vikings16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Vikings 25
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Packers10Vikings22
Packers10Vikings23
Touchdown17 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 9
Packers16Vikings23
Packers17Vikings23
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 10
The period ended10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 40
4th quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Packers23Vikings23
Packers24Vikings23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Vikings 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Packers24Vikings29
Packers24Vikings31
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Packers 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Packers30Vikings31
Packers31Vikings31
Touchdown3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Packers31Vikings34
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 7
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
