2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · Nissan Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

Tennessee Titans

TEN -10.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Titans closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 22–13. Biggest swing: Q1 0:01, HOU +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:01HOU — TEN TEN ball · 3rd & 6TEN 74%

(:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Grugier-Hill at HOU 12. 51-K.Grugier-Hill to TEN 6 for 82 yards (40-D.Hilliard).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:01HOU +20% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Grugier-Hill at HOU 12. 51-K.Grugier-Hill to TEN 6 for 82 yards (40-D.Hilliard).
Q3 · 1:31HOU +13% win prob(1:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 41 for 16 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis). PENALTY on HOU-8-T.Brooks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.
Q2 · 0:09HOU +13% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on TEN-17-R.Tannehill, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.
Q4 · 3:53HOU +12% win prob(3:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 10-D.Fitzpatrick INTERCEPTED by 25-D.King [51-K.Grugier-Hill] at TEN 40. 25-D.King pushed ob at TEN 15 for 25 yards (17-R.Tannehill).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Titans
Offensive plays	62	79
Total yards	190	420 (edge)
Yards per play	3.1	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.19
Success rate	32%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	47%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.19 (edge)
Third downs	6/17	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	0	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Titans outgained Texans 420–190 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

35/52, 323 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

-10.0 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Tyrod TaylorQB

14/24, 107 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.3 expected points added · -8.9% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Rex BurkheadRB

18 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Adrian PetersonRB

9 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR

7/8 for 107 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

5/9 for 48 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · -6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 22	10	40	3:58	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 13	14	72	6:58	Turnover on downs
3	TEN	TEN 20	10	62	4:04	Interception
4	HOU	TEN 6	4	0	1:25	Turnover on downs
5	TEN	TEN 25	5	8	1:13	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 24	10	49	4:39	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 33	8	31	4:39	Turnover on downs
8	HOU	HOU 31	4	7	1:20	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 7	10	64	1:44	End of half
10	HOU	HOU 25	15	40	7:24	Punt
11	HOU	TEN 5	4	5	0:36	Touchdown
12	TEN	TEN 22	15	78	4:36	Touchdown
13	HOU	HOU 25	5	-2	1:04	Punt
14	TEN	HOU 44	5	20	1:49	Turnover on downs
15	HOU	HOU 24	4	9	1:34	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 17	7	58	1:55	Interception
17	HOU	HOU 1	4	1	1:00	Punt
18	TEN	HOU 36	7	33	2:15	Turnover on downs
19	HOU	HOU 25	5	9	1:32	Punt
20	TEN	TEN 16	6	10	2:33	Interception
21	HOU	TEN 15	4	1	0:16	Turnover on downs
22	TEN	TEN 33	5	20	1:19	Interception
23	HOU	TEN 48	4	-1	1:50	Punt
24	TEN	TEN 15	1	-4	0:17	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 78 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	14/24	107	0	0	0	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rex Burkhead	18	40	2.2	0	-3.0
Tyrod Taylor	6	28	4.7	2	5.5
David Johnson	13	18	1.4	0	-6.2
Phillip Lindsay	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Conley	4	5	37	22%	2.2
Brandin Cooks	2	3	18	13%	0.3
David Johnson	3	4	16	17%	0.0
Chris Moore	1	1	10	4%	0.7
Pharaoh Brown	2	4	10	17%	-2.0
Nico Collins	1	2	9	9%	-0.4
Brevin Jordan	1	3	7	13%	-0.3
Danny Amendola	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zach Cunningham	6	5	0.0	0	1
Kamu Grugier-Hill	6	5	0.0	1	2
Eric Murray	6	5	0.0	0	1
Tavierre Thomas	6	3	0.0	0	0
Desmond King	7	1	0.0	2	2
Terrance Mitchell	5	3	0.0	1	1
Ross Blacklock	2	1	1.0	0	0
Roy Lopez	1	2	0.0	0	0
Maliek Collins	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jake Martin	1	1	1.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	35/52	323	1	4	2	-10.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Adrian Peterson	9	40	4.4	-3.5
Dontrell Hilliard	7	35	5.0	0.5
D'Onta Foreman	7	25	3.6	-2.6
Ryan Tannehill	2	3	1.5	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	7	8	107	0	16%	7.3
A.J. Brown	5	9	48	0	18%	-6.6
Dontrell Hilliard	8	10	47	0	20%	3.5
Chester Rogers	4	6	41	0	12%	2.6
Dez Fitzpatrick	3	6	35	1	12%	-4.6
Anthony Firkser	5	7	26	0	14%	-7.4
D'Onta Foreman	1	1	15	0	2%	1.6
Adrian Peterson	2	2	4	0	4%	-0.8
Tommy Hudson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Marcus Johnson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jayon Brown	6	8	0
Kevin Byard	3	4	0
Elijah Molden	3	3	1
Monty Rice	1	5	0
Jeffery Simmons	4	1	1
Dylan Cole	2	2	0
Amani Hooker	1	3	0
Chris Jackson	3	0	0
Kristian Fulton	1	2	0
Naquan Jones	2	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -10.5
Closing total: 44.5
HOU moneyline: +377
TEN moneyline: -462

Titans closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 35 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: HOU 14 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: David Culley vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.