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Houston Texans 22, Titans 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 0:01, 3rd and 6, on Kamu Grugier-Hill — 20.1 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:01 · 3rd and 6
Kamu Grugier-Hill
Texans
(:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Grugier-Hill at HOU 12. 51-K.Grugier-Hill to TEN 6 for 82 yards (40-D.Hilliard).
Titans closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 22–13. Biggest swing: Q1 0:01, Texans +20.1% win probability on one snap.
20.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ryan TannehillTexansQ2 0:09(:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on TEN-17-R.Tannehill, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.
12.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetTitansQ3 1:31(1:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 41 for 16 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis). PENALTY on HOU-8-T.Brooks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.
12.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Titans at 4 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Texans at 0 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Texans176 of 187 plays carry both curves
(:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Grugier-Hill at HOU 12. 51-K.Grugier-Hill to TEN 6 for 82 yards (40-D.Hilliard).
Swing −20.1 for TitansExpected points −9.33 for TitansThe model had Texans 21 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:01HOU +20% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Grugier-Hill at HOU 12. 51-K.Grugier-Hill to TEN 6 for 82 yards (40-D.Hilliard).
3rd · 1:31HOU +13% win prob(1:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 41 for 16 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis). PENALTY on HOU-8-T.Brooks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.
2nd · 0:09HOU +13% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on TEN-17-R.Tannehill, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.
4th · 3:53HOU +12% win prob(3:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 10-D.Fitzpatrick INTERCEPTED by 25-D.King [51-K.Grugier-Hill] at TEN 40. 25-D.King pushed ob at TEN 15 for 25 yards (17-R.Tannehill).
3rd · 7:44TEN +10% win prob(7:44) 11-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TEN 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-24-T.Smith at TEN 5.
4th · 11:08HOU +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 43-yard field goal with 4:08 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:08Ka'imi Fairbairn·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+33–0
2nd13:38Ka'imi Fairbairn·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+36–0
2nd7:50Tyrod Taylor·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+612–0
3rd2:29Dez Fitzpatrick·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill · kick no good, wide left+619–6
4th7:53Anthony Firkser·TD catchtouchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+719–13
4th3:30Ka'imi Fairbairn·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+322–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryTitans
Texans3–6Titans
190Total yards420
3.1Yards per play5.3
32%Success rate49%
35%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
0Explosive plays5
13First downs25
0Sacks taken2
0Turnovers4
The read
Titans ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Texans: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.19Titans: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Texans: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.18Titans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Texans: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.19Titans: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 62 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Titans’s 79 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Titans 3.
NoteTitans outgained Texans 420-190 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's sack or hit rate, 3.4%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 10.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
TEN's early-down pass rate, 63.3%, is past their previous high of 59.6% in week 1 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Titans3.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.77× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 63.3%, 17.3 points above their season mean of 46.1% and 1.8 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−25% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Grugier-Hill at HOU 12. 51-K.Grugier-Hill to TEN 6 for 82 yards (40-D.Hilliard).
Q1 0:01 · Titans · 3rd & 6 at HOU 18 · gained nothing · -9.33 EP · −25.0% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 78 yards from the TEN 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
39%
Yards
610
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR66-0.2077%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.0726%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.1856%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0425%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.390%
Titans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Texans 35
Texans3Titans0
Field goal16 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Titans 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Texans 18
2nd quarter47 plays
Texans6Titans0
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 34
Texans12Titans0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Titans 7
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Texans 31
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 38
The period ended14 plays, from the Titans 7 to the Texans 24
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt15 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 35
Texans18Titans0
Texans19Titans0
Touchdown4 plays
Texans19Titans6
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Texans 18
Punt5 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 44 to the Texans 28
4th quarter56 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 24
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 33
Intercepted7 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Texans 25
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Texans 2
Texans19Titans12
Texans19Titans13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Texans 7
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Intercepted6 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Titans 29
Texans22Titans13
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 14
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Texans 47
Punt6 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -10.5
Closing total
44.5
Texans moneyline
+377
Titans moneyline
-462
Titans closed -10.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 35 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south; 0.54 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Texans 14 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
David Culley vs Mike Vrabel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(11:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 10-D.Fitzpatrick INTERCEPTED by 25-D.King at HOU 1. 25-D.King to HOU 1 for no gain (10-D.Fitzpatrick).
2nd · 3:10HOU +10% win prob(3:10) 8-A.Peterson up the middle to HOU 31 for no gain (51-K.Grugier-Hill, 20-Ju.Reid).
4th · 6:22HOU +9% win prob(6:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
