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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 11
It turned at Q2 2:12 — 18.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:12
Unnamed on the sheet
Colts
8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to BUF 3. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 15 for 12 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at BUF 16. 38-T.Carrie to BUF 2 for 14 yards (46-J.Johnson; 9-A.Smith).
Indianapolis Colts 41–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:12, Colts +18.0% win probability on one snap.
18.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Bills at 4 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Colts at 4 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to BUF 3. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 15 for 12 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at BUF 16. 38-T.Carrie to BUF 2 for 14 yards (46-J.Johnson; 9-A.Smith).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jonathan Taylor's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 8:59 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Coltscategory by categoryBills
Colts ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 66 snaps at a 32% dropback rate against Bills’s 55 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Colts 7, Bills 2.
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's early-down pass rate, 72.7%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
IND's early-down pass rate, 30.2%, is past their previous low of 40.8% in week 4 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.9 points.
IND's pass rate over expected, −13.8 pts, is past their previous low of −7.2 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 11.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Colts-13.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.2 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 66 snaps
Bills7.1 ptsright on their number · +2.7 vs their 4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 92%
Tendencies room →Colts30.2%leaned — ran early · −20.8 vs their 51.0%, and they swing ±14.9 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 53 early downs
Bills72.7%leaned — passed early · +12.6 vs their 60.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Colts—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.7%.
Bills—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Colts9.5%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bills9.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
IND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 30.2%, 20.8 points below their season mean of 51.0% and 1.4 times their own 14.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
21/35, 209 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-1.3 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected
Passing · IND
11/20, 106 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.5 expected points added · -14.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jonathan Taylor banked 26.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 53.4 | +26.1 | 83% | 86% | 15% | 1% | 32 car, 185 yd, 4 TD · 3/3, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 18.3 | +4.6 | 77% | 79% | 15% | 19% | 4/6, 23 yd, 2 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 16.2 | −2.3 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 21/35, 209 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 18 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.0 | −2.9 | 98% | 95% | 26% | 24% | 6/10, 80 yd |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 10.0 | +0.3 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 11/20, 106 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 18 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 7.7 | +1.7 | 32% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 5 car, 51 yd · 1/2, 16 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Receiving Back | 7.3 | 0.0 | 38% | 40% | 10% | 2% | 3 car, 17 yd · 3/4, 26 yd |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −1.1 | 57% | 64% | 13% | 9% | 4/5, 23 yd |
| Jack DoyleTE · Alpha Receiver | 6.0 | −2.9 | 74% | 67% | 25% | 34% | 3/5, 30 yd |
| Emmanuel SandersWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −1.9 | 79% | 76% | 13% | 20% | 3/5, 26 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 4.7 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| T.Y. HiltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +2.1 | 41% | 57% | 10% | 9% | 2/2, 26 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.3 | −3.9 | 75% | 86% | 25% | 32% | 2/5, 23 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB | 3.1 | +1.3 | 19% | 24% | 0% | — | 4 car, 31 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.9 | 35% | 24% | 10% | 1% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 1.7 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Deon JacksonRB | 1.2 | −1.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sam EhlingerQB | 0.9 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −1.2 | 78% | 81% | 5% | 3% | 1 car, 9 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zack MossRB | 0.5 | −1.9 | 29% | 29% | 3% | 1% | 3 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tommy SweeneyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 23% | 17% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Isaiah McKenzieWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 41% | 29% | 5% | 15% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dezmon PatmonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 13% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | -1.2 | −2.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to BUF 3. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 15 for 12 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at BUF 16. 38-T.Carrie to BUF 2 for 14 yards (46-J.Johnson; 9-A.Smith).
Q2 2:12 · Bills · Kickoff at IND 35 · gained nothing · -7.17 EP · −13.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 77 yards from the BUF 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Colts6
Bills0Colts7Bills0Colts13Bills0Colts14Bills0Colts14Bills6Colts14Bills7Colts17Bills7Colts23Bills7Colts24Bills7Colts30Bills7Colts31Bills7Colts37Bills7Colts38Bills7Colts38Bills13Colts38Bills15Colts41Bills15Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Colts at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 11/20 | 106 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 32 | 185 | 5.8 | 4 | +12.4 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 25% | +1.8 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 10% | +4.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Odum | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/35 | 209 | 2 | 2 | 1 | −1.3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3/5 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −3.3 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_11_IND_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 56 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| Deon Jackson | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 25% | −0.0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 10% | +1.1 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Dezmon Patmon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Grover Stewart | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Sendejo | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahleel Addae | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zaire Franklin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| E.J. Speed | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 5 | 51 | 10.2 | 0 | +3.2 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 6 | 10 | 80 | 0 | 26% | +2.3 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 10% | −1.6 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 10% | −0.0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 13% | −3.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 15% | +3.8 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Zack Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Milano | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Addison | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
