2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · New Era Field

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Buffalo Bills

BUF -7.5 upsetO 49.5 ✓Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 41–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:12, IND +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:12IND — BUF BUF ballIND 59%

8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to BUF 3. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 15 for 12 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at BUF 16. 38-T.Carrie to BUF 2 for 14 yards (46-J.Johnson; 9-A.Smith).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:12IND +18% win prob8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to BUF 3. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 15 for 12 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at BUF 16. 38-T.Carrie to BUF 2 for 14 yards (46-J.Johnson; 9-A.Smith).
Q1 · 1:48BUF +12% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:10IND +10% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 30-G.Odum at IND 22. 30-G.Odum pushed ob at IND 43 for 21 yards (74-C.Ford).
Q2 · 6:01BUF +9% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz scrambles up the middle to BUF 30 for 18 yards (21-J.Poyer). Initial pressure on QB: M.Addison.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Bills
Offensive plays	66	55
Total yards	370 (edge)	313
Yards per play	5.6	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.27 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	53%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	32%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22	0.32 (edge)
Third downs	8/12 (edge)	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

21/35, 209 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-1.3 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

11/20, 106 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.5 expected points added · -14.3% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

32 att, 185 yds, 4 TD

12.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Matt BreidaRB

5 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Dawson KnoxTE

6/10 for 80 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Jack DoyleTE

3/5 for 30 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 35	13	65	6:05	Touchdown
2	BUF	BUF 25	9	47	4:57	Interception
3	IND	IND 43	6	57	2:20	Touchdown
4	BUF	BUF 27	13	73	5:54	Touchdown
5	IND	IND 25	16	49	8:32	Turnover on downs
6	BUF	—	1	0	0:09	Fumble
7	IND	BUF 2	2	2	0:04	Touchdown
8	BUF	BUF 25	9	41	1:59	Turnover on downs
9	BUF	BUF 27	5	0	0:35	Punt
10	IND	IND 25	9	29	3:43	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 10	7	44	2:29	Turnover on downs
12	IND	IND 39	6	61	2:46	Touchdown
13	BUF	BUF 21	4	2	0:58	Interception
14	IND	BUF 24	7	23	3:31	Touchdown
15	BUF	BUF 23	12	79	3:16	Touchdown
16	IND	IND 20	11	63	6:19	Turnover on downs
17	BUF	BUF 24	6	19	1:34	Interception
18	IND	BUF 42	7	21	4:27	Turnover on downs
19	BUF	BUF 21	1	8	0:22	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 79 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	11/20	106	1	0	0	5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	32	185	5.8	4	12.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	31	7.8	0	1.4
Carson Wentz	2	18	9.0	0	0.6
Deon Jackson	6	12	2.0	0	-4.4
Zach Pascal	1	9	9.0	0	0.8
Sam Ehlinger	1	9	9.0	0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jack Doyle	3	5	30	0	25%	1.8
T.Y. Hilton	2	2	26	0	10%	4.2
Michael Pittman	2	5	23	0	25%	-0.0
Jonathan Taylor	3	3	19	1	15%	0.5
Kylen Granson	1	2	8	0	10%	1.1
Zach Pascal	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6
Dezmon Patmon	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.7
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
George Odum	4	1	1	1
Shaquille Leonard	2	3	0	0
Bobby Okereke	4	1	0	0
Isaiah Rodgers	1	3	0	1
Grover Stewart	2	2	0	1
Andrew Sendejo	2	1	0	0
Jahleel Addae	2	1	0	0
Kenny Moore	1	2	1	1
Zaire Franklin	1	1	1	1
E.J. Speed	1	1	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	21/35	209	2	2	1	-1.3
Mitchell Trubisky	3/5	19	0	1	0	-3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Matt Breida	5	51	10.2	3.2
Josh Allen	2	18	9.0	2.5
Devin Singletary	3	17	5.7	0.8
Zack Moss	3	5	1.7	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dawson Knox	6	10	80	0	26%	2.3
Gabe Davis	2	4	27	0	10%	-1.6
Devin Singletary	3	4	26	0	10%	-0.0
Emmanuel Sanders	3	5	26	0	13%	-3.3
Stefon Diggs	4	6	23	2	15%	3.8
Cole Beasley	4	5	23	0	13%	0.1
Matt Breida	1	2	16	0	5%	0.1
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	7	0	3%	0.2
Zack Moss	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3
Tommy Sweeney	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Matt Milano	2	6	0
Harrison Phillips	2	5	0
Jordan Poyer	6	1	0
Taron Johnson	1	4	0
Gregory Rousseau	3	2	0
Micah Hyde	2	3	0
Tre'Davious White	2	2	0
Mario Addison	1	3	0
Levi Wallace	2	1	0
Ed Oliver	1	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -7.5
Closing total: 49.5
IND moneyline: +274
BUF moneyline: -320

Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 56 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: IND 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Sean McDermott