2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

New York Jets

MIA -3.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Miami Dolphins 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 3:10, NYJ +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:10MIA — NYJ NYJ ball · 3rd & 8MIA 85%

(3:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:10NYJ +22% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:16NYJ +19% win prob(9:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 10:23NYJ +13% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 37-M.Gaskin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-J.Franklin-Myers]. NYJ-57-C.Mosley was injured during the play.
Q2 · 12:30MIA +12% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco sacked at MIA 12 for -7 yards (29-Br.Jones). FUMBLES (29-Br.Jones) [29-Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at MIA 11. 94-C.Wilkins to MIA 20 for 9 yards (76-G.Fant). FUMBLES (76-G.Fant), recovered by MIA-8-J.Holland at MIA 23. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for no gain (23-T.Coleman; 86-R.Griffin). NYJ-78-M.Moses was injured during the play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Jets
Offensive plays	66	59
Total yards	389 (edge)	380
Yards per play	5.9	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	0.07
Success rate	47%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	53%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.44 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.20 (edge)
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Joe FlaccoQB

24/39, 291 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.9 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

27/33, 273 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

16.5 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

23 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

9 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Elijah MooreWR

8/11 for 141 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Mack HollinsWR

2/3 for 72 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 17	13	78	5:56	Touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	23	2:49	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 14	3	5	1:32	Interception
4	NYJ	MIA 40	6	40	1:43	Touchdown
5	MIA	MIA 25	5	5	1:09	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 31	8	58	4:31	Fumble
7	MIA	MIA 23	6	21	2:39	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 15	7	44	3:03	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 8	4	13	2:31	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 48	7	16	3:01	Turnover on downs
11	MIA	MIA 45	10	41	1:06	Turnover on downs
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	37	3:41	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 10	5	96	2:13	Touchdown
14	NYJ	NYJ 23	10	50	3:40	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 30	4	9	1:37	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 36	4	64	0:50	Touchdown
17	MIA	MIA 25	16	77	7:44	Touchdown
18	NYJ	NYJ 19	5	-6	1:25	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 49	12	44	6:53	Turnover on downs
20	NYJ	NYJ 29	9	54	1:42	Turnover on downs
21	MIA	NYJ 48	2	0	0:15	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 96 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	27/33	273	2	1	0	16.5
Albert Wilson	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	23	89	3.9	0	-1.5
Duke Johnson	4	18	4.5	0	0.0
Tua Tagovailoa	3	6	2.0	0	-2.5
Patrick Laird	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Jaylen Waddle	1	1	1.0	1	0.9
Albert Wilson	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mack Hollins	2	3	72	1	9%	5.9
Jaylen Waddle	8	9	65	0	26%	1.5
Mike Gesicki	5	6	50	0	18%	2.5
Durham Smythe	4	5	37	0	15%	2.0
Adam Shaheen	1	1	19	0	3%	1.6
Albert Wilson	3	4	18	0	12%	-0.6
Myles Gaskin	3	4	7	1	12%	1.6
Patrick Laird	1	1	5	0	3%	2.0
Preston Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jerome Baker	1	5	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	2	4	1.0	0
Jevon Holland	5	1	0.0	1
Eric Rowe	1	3	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	2	2	0.0	0
Xavien Howard	4	0	0.0	2
Christian Wilkins	2	1	0.0	0
Jaelan Phillips	3	0	1.0	0
Justin Coleman	1	2	0.0	0
Byron Jones	3	0	0.0	1

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	24/39	291	2	0	2	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Michael Carter	9	63	7.0	1.9
Tevin Coleman	5	16	3.2	-1.2
Elijah Moore	1	15	15.0	1.1
Ty Johnson	1	5	5.0	1.2
Joe Flacco	2	3	1.5	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Elijah Moore	8	11	141	1	31%	9.3
Jamison Crowder	6	7	44	1	20%	5.0
Ryan Griffin	3	4	39	0	11%	3.4
Corey Davis	3	7	35	0	20%	-2.6
Nick Bawden	1	1	20	0	3%	1.8
Ty Johnson	1	1	8	0	3%	0.5
Michael Carter	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.3
Tevin Coleman	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.8
Keelan Cole	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Braxton Berrios	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Quincy Williams	9	5
Isaiah Dunn	7	0
C.J. Mosley	4	3
Bryce Hall	5	1
Elijah Riley	1	4
Michael Carter	3	2
Ronald Blair	1	4
Kyle Phillips	2	1
Sheldon Rankins	1	2
Nathan Shepherd	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -3.5
Closing total: 44.5
MIA moneyline: -181
NYJ moneyline: +162

Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 41 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: MIA 10 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Robert Saleh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.