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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Miami Dolphins 24, Jets 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 3:10, 3rd and 8, on Elijah Moore — 21.7 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:10 · 3rd and 8
Elijah Moore
Jets
(3:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Miami Dolphins 24–17. Biggest swing: Q3 3:10, Jets +21.7% win probability on one snap.
21.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mack HollinsDolphinsQ3 9:16(9:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.2pts
Myles GaskinDolphinsQ4 10:23(10:23) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 37-M.Gaskin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-J.Franklin-Myers]. NYJ-57-C.Mosley was injured during the play.
13.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Jets at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Dolphins166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(3:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +21.7 for JetsExpected points +6.42 for JetsThe model had Jets 7 points higher than the market did.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:10NYJ +22% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:16NYJ +19% win prob(9:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:23NYJ +13% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 37-M.Gaskin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-J.Franklin-Myers]. NYJ-57-C.Mosley was injured during the play.
2nd · 12:30MIA +12% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco sacked at MIA 12 for -7 yards (29-Br.Jones). FUMBLES (29-Br.Jones) [29-Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at MIA 11. 94-C.Wilkins to MIA 20 for 9 yards (76-G.Fant). FUMBLES (76-G.Fant), recovered by MIA-8-J.Holland at MIA 23. 8-J.Holland to MIA 23 for no gain (23-T.Coleman; 86-R.Griffin). NYJ-78-M.Moses was injured during the play.
2nd · 0:04MIA +10% win prob(:04) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
1st · 3:04NYJ +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Myles Gaskin's 5-yard touchdown catch with 10:23 left in the 4th put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
1st3:04Jamison Crowder·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+77–7
3rd9:16Mack Hollins·65-yd TD catch65-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+714–7
3rd3:10Elijah Moore·62-yd TD catch62-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+714–14
4th10:23Myles Gaskin·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+721–14
4th2:00Jason Sanders·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+324–14
4th0:18Matt Ammendola·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+324–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryJets
Dolphins5–3Jets
389Total yards380
5.9Yards per play6.4
47%Success rate51%
57%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays7
18First downs17
0Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Dolphins ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Dolphins: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.07Jets: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Dolphins: +0.44 expected points added per play
+0.01Jets: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Dolphins: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.20Jets: +0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 66 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Jets’s 59 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Jets 5.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 5.7%, is past their previous low of 9.1% in week 2 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jets5.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.7%, 7.6 points below their season mean of 13.3% and 1.3 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco pass+29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:10) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:10 · Jets · 3rd & 8 at NYJ 38 · gained 62 · +6.42 EP · +29.0% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 90 yards from the MIA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
768
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR53+0.2849%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.2275%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2660%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9-0.2278%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.8850%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2733%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR4——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Dolphins6Jets0
Dolphins7Jets0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Jets 1
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 48
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Dolphins7Jets6
Dolphins7Jets7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Dolphins 1
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 30
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 41
2nd quarter45 plays
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Dolphins 5
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 44
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Dolphins 41
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Dolphins 14
No good7 plays, from the Jets 48 to the Dolphins 36
No good13 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Jets 14
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Dolphins13Jets7
Dolphins14Jets7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 35
No good12 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Dolphins 12
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Dolphins14Jets13
Dolphins14Jets14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jets 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 49
4th quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Dolphins20Jets14
Dolphins21Jets14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Jets 2
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 20
Dolphins24Jets14
Field goal14 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Jets 2
Dolphins24Jets17
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Dolphins 17
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -3.5
Closing total
44.5
Dolphins moneyline
-181
Jets moneyline
+162
Dolphins closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 41 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Dolphins 10 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Robert Saleh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(3:04) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:30NYJ +9% win prob(14:30) 67-D.Feeney reported in as eligible. 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 86-R.Griffin pushed ob at MIA 21 for 29 yards (8-J.Holland).
1st · 4:50MIA +9% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Davis at MIA 40. 21-A.Davis to MIA 40 for no gain (17-J.Waddle).
