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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 18, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 11
It turned at Q1 9:22, 1st and 10, on Rhamondre Stevenson — 5.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 25–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:22, Patriots +5.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:22 · 1st and 10
Rhamondre Stevenson
Patriots
(9:22) 38-R.Stevenson right end pushed ob at ATL 28 for 21 yards (21-D.Harmon).
5.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 4 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.61 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(9:22) 38-R.Stevenson right end pushed ob at ATL 28 for 21 yards (21-D.Harmon).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Folk's 32-yard field goal with 5:19 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Nick Folk32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+33–0Kyle Van Noy35-yd defense TD35-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · kick no good, wide left+625–06 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryFalcons
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 57 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Falcons’s 52 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Falcons 2.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.61.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's sack or hit rate, 33.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 10.3 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · +2.6σ from their own normal
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 11.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.5 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.5% in week 10 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.8 pts in week 10 against +4.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-0.9 ptsright on their number · +5.3 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 57 snaps
Falcons4.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their -1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Patriots46.7%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 45 early downs
Falcons66.7%inside their normal wobble · +10.2 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Patriots0.0%inside their normal wobble · −30.0 vs their 30.0%, and they swing ±31.1 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons66.7%leaned — went for it · +29.4 vs their 37.2%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 36%
Tendencies room →Patriots33.3%off script — got home · +19.5 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+2.65× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Falcons13.3%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 19.5 points above their season mean of 13.9% and 2.6 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
22/26, 207 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.6 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
19/28, 153 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-12.2 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Nelson Agholor banked 7.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson AgholorWR · Featured Receiver | 15.0 | +7.4 | 77% | 80% | 19% | 12% | 5/5, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 10.4 | −1.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/26, 207 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 1 yd |
| Russell GageWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.9 | −1.6 | 74% | 86% | 26% | 30% | 5/8, 49 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +1.4 | 45% | 67% | 15% | 10% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/4, 42 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 8.5 | −0.1 | 34% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 12 car, 69 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 7.9 | −1.6 | 88% | 93% | 23% | 33% | 4/6, 39 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB | 7.5 | +0.8 | 39% | 30% | 4% | 2% | 10 car, 56 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −1.8 | 81% | 86% | 16% | 30% | 3/5, 29 yd |
| Qadree OllisonRB · Committee Back | 5.4 | −2.6 | 48% | 39% | 10% | 0% | 9 car, 34 yd · 2/3, 0 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −1.5 | 46% | 64% | 16% | 12% | 3/5, 23 yd |
| Mike DavisRB · Receiving Back | 5.1 | −1.7 | 48% | 58% | 13% | 0% | 3 car, 1 yd · 3/4, 20 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −2.1 | 50% | 70% | 12% | 22% | 2/3, 25 yd |
| Tajae SharpeWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −2.2 | 69% | 78% | 13% | 23% | 2/4, 21 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB | 3.6 | −0.3 | 27% | 50% | 8% | 1% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/2, 15 yd |
| N'Keal HarryTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.3 | 41% | 27% | 8% | 7% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 2.9 | +0.3 | 35% | 33% | 3% | 1% | 3 car, 8 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −1.3 | 52% | 30% | 8% | 15% | 1/2, 17 yd |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 2.1 | −5.0 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 19/28, 153 yd, 2 INT |
| Parker HesseTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 20% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Lee SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 41% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | 41% | 20% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Matt SlaterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Wayne GallmanRB | -0.3 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh RosenQB | -1.8 | −2.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE · Rotational Receiver | -2.0 | −2.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:16) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NE 27 for -13 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
Q2 7:16 · Falcons · 3rd & 1 at NE 14 · lost 13 · -2.60 EP · −8.6% win probability
144 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 76 yards from the NE 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots3
Falcons0Patriots9Falcons0Patriots10Falcons0Patriots13Falcons0Patriots16Falcons0Patriots19Falcons0Patriots25Falcons0Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/26 | 207 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Damien Harris | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 15% | +2.6 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Van Noy | 5 | 3 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Dugger | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dont'a Hightower |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/28 | 153 | 0 | 2 | 4 | −12.2 |
| Josh Rosen | 1/3 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_11_NE_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 25 — under by 22.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 7.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Mac Jones | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| 19% |
| +2.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 23% | +0.6 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 12% | +1.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | −5.2 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | −0.4 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Judon | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Davon Godchaux | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 0 |
| −8.2 |
| Feleipe Franks | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadree Ollison | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Keith Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 26% | −7.9 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 16% | −2.9 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 16% | −3.4 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13% | −1.0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13% | −1.0 |
| Keith Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Qadree Ollison | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Fabian Moreau | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Fowler | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darren Hall | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Copeland | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Harris | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
