2021 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 18, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Atlanta Falcons

NE -7 ✓U 47.5 ✓DomePatriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 25.

New England Patriots 25–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:22, ATL +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:22NE — ATL NE ball · 1st & 10NE 76%

(9:22) 38-R.Stevenson right end pushed ob at ATL 28 for 21 yards (21-D.Harmon).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:22ATL +5% win prob(9:22) 38-R.Stevenson right end pushed ob at ATL 28 for 21 yards (21-D.Harmon).
Q1 · 5:19NE +5% win prob(5:19) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q2 · 13:51ATL +4% win prob(13:51) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 15-N.Agholor for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:16NE +4% win prob(7:16) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan sacked at NE 27 for -13 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Falcons
Offensive plays	57	52
Total yards	312 (edge)	165
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	3.2
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.61
Success rate	51% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	53%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.67
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.47
Third downs	4/12 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.61.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

22/26, 207 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.6 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

19/28, 153 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-12.2 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

12 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

10 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Russell GageWR

5/8 for 49 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -7.9 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

4/4 for 42 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	7	13	3:17	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 4	4	4	1:51	Punt
3	NE	NE 34	9	52	4:38	Turnover on downs
4	ATL	ATL 10	8	16	3:01	Punt
5	NE	NE 24	8	71	3:29	Touchdown
6	ATL	ATL 21	15	52	7:25	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 40	4	4	2:12	Punt
8	ATL	ATL 14	4	-8	2:19	Punt
9	NE	NE 32	7	41	1:48	Turnover on downs
10	ATL	ATL 17	6	10	1:56	Punt
11	NE	NE 27	4	15	2:03	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 19	4	2	1:29	Punt
13	NE	NE 17	8	45	4:28	Interception
14	ATL	ATL 48	8	36	4:12	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 16	4	8	1:01	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 29	5	27	2:51	Interception
17	NE	NE 22	8	33	5:21	Turnover on downs
18	ATL	ATL 28	4	21	1:30	Interception
19	NE	NE 49	8	30	3:14	Turnover on downs
20	ATL	ATL 25	4	5	0:33	Defensive touchdown
21	ATL	ATL 21	2	0	0:10	Interception
22	NE	ATL 23	2	0	1:12	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 71 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	22/26	207	1	1	3	-2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	12	69	5.8	-0.4
Damien Harris	10	56	5.6	1.5
Kendrick Bourne	1	7	7.0	0.6
Mac Jones	6	1	0.2	-3.7
Brandon Bolden	1	1	1.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	4	4	42	0	15%	2.6
Nelson Agholor	5	5	40	1	19%	2.5
Jakobi Meyers	4	6	39	0	23%	0.6
Hunter Henry	2	3	25	0	12%	1.6
Jonnu Smith	1	2	17	0	8%	-5.2
Brandon Bolden	2	2	15	0	8%	-0.4
N'Keal Harry	2	2	14	0	8%	0.7
Damien Harris	1	1	9	0	4%	0.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Van Noy	5	3	2.0	1	1
Kyle Dugger	6	0	0.0	0	1
Dont'a Hightower	3	3	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	3	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	3	0.0	1	1
Matt Judon	1	2	1.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	1	2	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	3	0	0.0	1	2
Davon Godchaux	1	1	1.0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	1	1	0.0	1	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	19/28	153	2	4	-12.2
Josh Rosen	1/3	5	1	0	-8.2
Feleipe Franks	0/1	0	1	0	-3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Qadree Ollison	9	34	3.8	-3.2
Keith Smith	3	8	2.7	-1.2
Mike Davis	3	1	0.3	-1.7
Wayne Gallman	1	-3	-3.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Russell Gage	5	8	49	26%	-7.9
Kyle Pitts	3	5	29	16%	-2.9
Olamide Zaccheaus	3	5	23	16%	-3.4
Tajae Sharpe	2	4	21	13%	-1.0
Mike Davis	3	4	20	13%	-1.0
Keith Smith	1	1	11	3%	1.1
Parker Hesse	1	1	5	3%	0.2
Qadree Ollison	2	3	0	10%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	4	6	1.0	0	0
A.J. Terrell	4	5	0.0	1	1
Fabian Moreau	5	4	0.0	0	0
Dante Fowler	2	3	0.5	0	0
Jonathan Bullard	1	3	0.0	0	0
Darren Hall	3	1	1.0	0	0
Brandon Copeland	1	3	0.0	0	0
Duron Harmon	2	2	0.0	0	0
Erik Harris	2	2	0.5	0	0
Deion Jones	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -7
Closing total: 47.5
NE moneyline: -329
ATL moneyline: +280

Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 25 — under by 22.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NE 4 days · ATL 4 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Arthur Smith