For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
SaintsNew Orleans29
BY 11final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia40
New Orleans Saints 29 at Philadelphia Eagles 40. Final.
Eagles -2.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 11
Philadelphia Eagles 40, Saints 29 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:46, 1st and 10, on T.J. Edwards — 10.1 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:46 · 1st and 10
T.J. Edwards
Eagles
(9:46) 15-T.Siemian pass short right intended for 82-A.Trautman INTERCEPTED by 57-T.Edwards at NO 40. 57-T.Edwards to NO 39 for 1 yard (82-A.Trautman).
Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Philadelphia Eagles 40–29. Biggest swing: Q1 9:46, Eagles +10.1% win probability on one snap.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan HowardSaintsQ1 10:32(10:32) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard right guard to PHI 30 for -3 yards (70-C.Ringo).
6.7pts
Adam TrautmanSaintsQ2 13:09(13:09) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 82-A.Trautman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Cox].
9.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 3 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Saints at 7 chunk plays.
(9:46) 15-T.Siemian pass short right intended for 82-A.Trautman INTERCEPTED by 57-T.Edwards at NO 40. 57-T.Edwards to NO 39 for 1 yard (82-A.Trautman).
Swing +10.1 for EaglesExpected points +5.09 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 17
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:46NO +10% win prob(9:46) 15-T.Siemian pass short right intended for 82-A.Trautman INTERCEPTED by 57-T.Edwards at NO 40. 57-T.Edwards to NO 39 for 1 yard (82-A.Trautman).
2nd · 13:09PHI +10% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 82-A.Trautman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Cox].
1st · 10:32NO +7% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard right guard to PHI 30 for -3 yards (70-C.Ringo).
1st · 7:49PHI +7% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to NO 1 for 14 yards (5-K.Alexander).
1st · 9:01PHI +6% win prob(9:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at NO 19 for 16 yards (27-M.Jenkins).
2nd · 14:08NO +6% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to PHI 6 for 2 yards (70-C.Ringo; 96-C.Granderson). FUMBLES (70-C.Ringo), RECOVERED by NO-70-C.Ringo at PHI 6.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:21 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 12 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:21Jalen Hurts·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Eagles ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Saints: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.01Eagles: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Saints: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.06Eagles: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Saints: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.03Eagles: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Eagles’s 75 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Saints 5, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles11.9%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 16.6 points below their season mean of 50.0% and 1.0 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Siemian pass−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:46) 15-T.Siemian pass short right intended for 82-A.Trautman INTERCEPTED by 57-T.Edwards at NO 40. 57-T.Edwards to NO 39 for 1 yard (82-A.Trautman).
Q1 9:46 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 34 · gained nothing · -5.09 EP · −13.2% win probability
185 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 197 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
37%
Yards
703
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.0944%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1376%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2513%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0650%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 36
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Saints0Eagles6
Saints0Eagles7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Saints 1
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 25
Saints0Eagles13
Saints0Eagles14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Saints 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Eagles 45
2nd quarter58 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Eagles 43
Fumble lost1 play
Saints6Eagles14
Saints7Eagles14
Touchdown5 plays
Saints7Eagles17
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Saints 32
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 29
Saints7Eagles20
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Saints 13
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 47
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 4 to the Eagles 25
Saints7Eagles26
Touchdown2 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Saints 41
Saints7Eagles27
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 42
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 11
Saints7Eagles30
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 8
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
Saints7Eagles33
Field goal5 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Saints 23
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Eagles 29
4th quarter57 plays
Saints13Eagles33
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 12
Saints19Eagles33
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Eagles 17
Punt5 plays
Saints22Eagles33
Field goal9 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Eagles 10
Saints22Eagles39
Saints22Eagles40
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Saints 24
Saints28Eagles40
Saints29Eagles40
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Eagles 4
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -2.5
Closing total
42.5
Saints moneyline
+130
Eagles moneyline
-144
Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 69 — over by 26.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 54°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Saints 7 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Nick Sirianni
1st · 2:08
PHI +5% win prob
(2:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end to NO 1 for 2 yards (56-D.Davis). Philadelphia challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:34NO +5% win prob(:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Slay at PHI 49. 2-D.Slay for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
