2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field

New Orleans Saints

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

PHI -2.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Philadelphia Eagles 40–29. Biggest swing: Q1 9:46, NO +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:46NO — PHI NO ball · 1st & 10PHI 54%

(9:46) 15-T.Siemian pass short right intended for 82-A.Trautman INTERCEPTED by 57-T.Edwards at NO 40. 57-T.Edwards to NO 39 for 1 yard (82-A.Trautman).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:46NO +10% win prob(9:46) 15-T.Siemian pass short right intended for 82-A.Trautman INTERCEPTED by 57-T.Edwards at NO 40. 57-T.Edwards to NO 39 for 1 yard (82-A.Trautman).
Q2 · 13:09PHI +10% win prob(13:09) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right to 82-A.Trautman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Cox].
Q1 · 10:32NO +7% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard right guard to PHI 30 for -3 yards (70-C.Ringo).
Q1 · 7:49PHI +7% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to NO 1 for 14 yards (5-K.Alexander).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Eagles
Offensive plays	62	75
Total yards	324	382 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	-0.17	0.01 (edge)
Success rate	39%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	41%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.03 (edge)
Third downs	6/13	12/21 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Trevor SiemianQB

22/40, 214 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

13/24, 147 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.5 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

16 att, 94 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

16 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Tre'Quan SmithWR

5/8 for 64 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Dallas GoedertTE

5/8 for 62 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	8	10	1:54	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 15	7	15	3:20	Punt
3	NO	NO 34	1	0	0:09	Interception
4	PHI	NO 39	8	39	2:20	Touchdown
5	NO	NO 19	5	6	1:23	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 42	8	63	3:52	Touchdown
7	NO	NO 25	8	37	2:54	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 4	1	2	0:08	Fumble
9	NO	PHI 6	4	16	0:59	Touchdown
10	PHI	PHI 25	8	43	3:34	Turnover on downs
11	NO	NO 25	5	4	0:54	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 25	11	66	4:13	Turnover on downs
13	NO	NO 25	6	22	1:30	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 4	7	21	2:00	Punt
15	NO	NO 36	2	5	0:26	Defensive touchdown
16	NO	NO 19	2	0	0:24	End of half
17	PHI	PHI 25	8	17	3:16	Punt
18	NO	NO 10	4	1	0:56	Punt
19	PHI	NO 40	8	30	4:51	Turnover on downs
20	NO	NO 25	3	10	0:37	Fumble
21	PHI	NO 41	5	12	2:42	Turnover on downs
22	NO	NO 25	9	75	2:49	Touchdown
23	PHI	PHI 9	5	3	1:04	Punt
24	NO	PHI 39	4	39	1:12	Touchdown
25	PHI	PHI 16	5	-3	1:41	Punt
26	NO	PHI 49	8	24	3:38	Turnover on downs
27	PHI	PHI 26	11	74	3:15	Touchdown
28	NO	NO 25	13	75	3:14	Touchdown
29	PHI	NO 44	3	0	0:45	End of game

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Siemian	22/40	214	3	2	0	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	16	88	5.5	0	-3.3
Trevor Siemian	2	16	8.0	1	2.8
Dwayne Washington	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Tony Jones	3	2	0.7	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tre'Quan Smith	5	8	64	0	22%	1.8
Adam Trautman	5	8	58	1	22%	-0.8
Marquez Callaway	1	4	26	1	11%	1.2
Mark Ingram	6	8	25	0	22%	0.0
Nick Vannett	1	1	20	0	3%	1.5
Deonte Harty	2	5	11	0	14%	-10.6
Dwayne Washington	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	1	4	1	3%	1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marcus Davenport	6	4	1.5	0
Marcus Williams	5	2	0.0	3
Kwon Alexander	6	1	0.0	0
Shy Tuttle	3	2	0.0	0
Josiah Bronson	3	2	0.0	0
Paulson Adebo	4	1	0.0	0
Christian Ringo	2	3	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	0	0.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	4	0	0.0	0
David Onyemata	2	2	0.5	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	13/24	147	0	0	3	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	16	94	5.9	0	-4.9
Jalen Hurts	18	69	3.8	3	5.1
Jordan Howard	10	63	6.3	0	1.1
Boston Scott	6	16	2.7	0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Dallas Goedert	5	8	62	35%	4.4
DeVonta Smith	4	6	61	26%	4.2
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	1	1	23	4%	2.2
Boston Scott	2	2	2	9%	-1.9
Miles Sanders	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Tyree Jackson	0	1	0	4%	-0.7
Quez Watkins	0	1	0	4%	-0.7
Jalen Reagor	1	3	-1	13%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
T.J. Edwards	7	3	1	2
Alex Singleton	4	3	0	1
Rodney McLeod	5	1	0	0
Anthony Harris	1	4	0	0
Zech McPhearson	1	3	0	0
Javon Hargrave	1	2	0	0
Marcus Epps	2	1	0	0
Avonte Maddox	2	0	0	2
Josh Sweat	1	1	0	0
Fletcher Cox	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -2.5
Closing total: 42.5
NO moneyline: +130
PHI moneyline: -144

Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 69 — over by 26.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: NO 7 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Nick Sirianni