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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 11 · Mon, Nov 22, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
GiantsNew York10
BY 20final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay30
New York Giants 10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30. Final.
Buccaneers -11.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Giants 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 10:00, 1st and 10, on Adoree' Jackson — 9.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:00 · 1st and 10
Adoree' Jackson
Giants
(10:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at TB 15. 22-A.Jackson to TB 5 for 10 yards (18-T.Johnson).
Buccaneers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:00, Giants +9.4% win probability on one snap.
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
O.J. HowardBuccaneersQ1 14:54(14:54) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-O.Howard pushed ob at TB 37 for 10 yards (95-Q.Roche).
5.9pts
Daniel JonesBuccaneersQ3 12:27(12:27) 74-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-C.Johnson.
7.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Giants at 1 of 9 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.54 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Giants166 of 173 plays carry both curves
(10:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at TB 15. 22-A.Jackson to TB 5 for 10 yards (18-T.Johnson).
Swing −9.4 for BuccaneersExpected points −6.17 for BuccaneersThe model had Giants 17 points higher than the market did.play 54
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:00NYG +9% win prob(10:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at TB 15. 22-A.Jackson to TB 5 for 10 yards (18-T.Johnson).
3rd · 12:27NYG +7% win prob(12:27) 74-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-C.Johnson.
1st · 14:54TB +6% win prob(14:54) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-O.Howard pushed ob at TB 37 for 10 yards (95-Q.Roche).
1st · 11:09TB +5% win prob(11:09) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:19TB +4% win prob(9:19) 78-A.Thomas reported in as eligible. 8-D.Jones pass short left to 78-A.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-L.David].
2nd · 8:02TB +4% win prob(8:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski to NYG 29 for 35 yards (29-X.McKinney).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ronald Jones's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 5:12 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:09Chris Godwin·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+70–7
1st4:09Graham Gano·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+33–7
2nd11:20Ryan Succop·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+33–10
2nd9:19Andrew Thomas·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+710–10
2nd5:12Ronald Jones·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–17
3rd7:35Mike Evans·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+710–24
3rd3:58Ryan Succop·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+310–27
4th7:48Ryan Succop·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+310–30
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Giants0–8Buccaneers
215Total yards404
4.0Yards per play5.5
33%Success rate53%
11%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays4
13First downs27
2Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.38Giants: −0.38 expected points added per play
+0.11Buccaneers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.54Giants: −0.54 expected points added per play
+0.16Buccaneers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Giants: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.01Buccaneers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 54 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 74 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Buccaneers 5.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
NYG's pass rate over expected, +11.0 pts, is past their previous high of +7.7 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Buccaneers22.0%
leaned — got home · +5.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.0%, 5.9 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 1.2 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass−12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at TB 15. 22-A.Jackson to TB 5 for 10 yards (18-T.Johnson).
Q2 10:00 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at TB 15 · gained nothing · -6.17 EP · −12.0% win probability
164 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 79 yards from the TB 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
44%
Yards
617
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.1965%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.4276%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0657%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.7582%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Giants0Buccaneers6
Giants0Buccaneers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Giants 13
Giants3Buccaneers7
Field goal17 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Buccaneers 14
The period ended10 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Giants 44
2nd quarter54 plays
Giants3Buccaneers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Giants 7
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 33
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Giants9Buccaneers10
Giants10Buccaneers10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Buccaneers 5 to the Buccaneers 2
Giants10Buccaneers16
Giants10Buccaneers17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Giants 6
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 46
Punt13 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Giants 35
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 20
3rd quarter42 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Buccaneers 25
Giants10Buccaneers23
Giants10Buccaneers24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Giants 5
Intercepted4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
Giants10Buccaneers27
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 22
The period ended10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Buccaneers 48
4th quarter39 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 35
Intercepted5 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 31
Giants10Buccaneers30
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Giants 12
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 22
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Buccaneers 49 to the Buccaneers 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
