2021 Week 11 · Mon, Nov 22, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium

New York Giants

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -11.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:00, NYG +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:00NYG — TB TB ball · 1st & 10TB 89%

(10:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at TB 15. 22-A.Jackson to TB 5 for 10 yards (18-T.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:00NYG +9% win prob(10:00) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at TB 15. 22-A.Jackson to TB 5 for 10 yards (18-T.Johnson).
Q3 · 12:27NYG +7% win prob(12:27) 74-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-C.Johnson.
Q1 · 14:54TB +6% win prob(14:54) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-O.Howard pushed ob at TB 37 for 10 yards (95-Q.Roche).
Q1 · 11:09TB +5% win prob(11:09) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	54	74
Total yards	215	404 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.38	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	33%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.54	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	1/9	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	13	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

30/46, 307 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.5 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

23/38, 167 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-21.4 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

10 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

8 att, 33 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/11 for 73 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Rob GronkowskiTE

6/8 for 71 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 27	10	73	3:57	Touchdown
2	NYG	NYG 25	14	51	6:59	Turnover on downs
3	TB	TB 14	19	79	7:48	Turnover on downs
4	NYG	NYG 25	5	8	1:16	Punt
5	TB	TB 15	1	0	0:07	Interception
6	NYG	TB 5	3	5	0:39	Touchdown
7	TB	TB 29	10	71	4:08	Touchdown
8	NYG	NYG 25	6	21	1:41	Punt
9	TB	TB 15	10	50	2:42	Punt
10	NYG	NYG 9	3	32	0:43	Fumble
11	NYG	NYG 25	7	41	2:38	Turnover on downs
12	TB	TB 26	11	74	4:51	Touchdown
13	NYG	NYG 25	4	13	1:17	Interception
14	TB	NYG 37	6	15	2:21	Turnover on downs
15	NYG	NYG 25	11	31	4:18	Punt
16	TB	TB 22	6	13	2:04	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 10	5	21	2:29	Interception
18	TB	NYG 39	5	27	2:18	Turnover on downs
19	NYG	NYG 25	5	5	1:02	Punt
20	TB	TB 19	4	-10	2:16	Punt
21	NYG	TB 49	4	-13	1:19	Turnover on downs
22	TB	NYG 38	6	12	3:07	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	23/38	167	1	2	2	-21.4
Kadarius Toney	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	6	25	4.2	-0.4
John Ross	1	16	16.0	1.0
Devontae Booker	3	15	5.0	1.3
Daniel Jones	3	10	3.3	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kadarius Toney	7	12	40	0	32%	-2.5
Darius Slayton	4	7	37	0	19%	-5.4
Saquon Barkley	6	6	31	0	16%	0.1
Kyle Rudolph	1	1	28	0	3%	1.9
Kenny Golladay	1	2	12	0	5%	0.3
Evan Engram	2	5	12	0	14%	-1.7
Devontae Booker	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.0
Andrew Thomas	1	1	2	1	3%	1.2
Chris Myarick	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.9
Collin Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Xavier McKinney	5	2	0
James Bradberry	4	2	0
Julian Love	3	3	2
Tae Crowder	3	3	0
Danny Shelton	4	1	0
Benardrick McKinney	3	2	0
J.R. Reed	3	2	0
Quincy Roche	3	2	0
Austin Johnson	2	2	1
Darnay Holmes	4	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	30/46	307	2	1	0	6.5
Blaine Gabbert	2/2	11	0	0	1	0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	10	35	3.5	0	-1.4
Ronald Jones	8	33	4.1	1	2.3
Tom Brady	1	10	10.0	0	1.5
Mike Evans	1	10	10.0	0	0.6
Chris Godwin	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	3	4	1.3	0	-1.4
Blaine Gabbert	2	-2	-1.0	0	-3.6
Breshad Perriman	1	-3	-3.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	11	73	1	23%	0.4
Rob Gronkowski	6	8	71	0	17%	3.3
Chris Godwin	6	6	65	1	13%	5.4
Leonard Fournette	6	6	39	0	13%	2.0
Cameron Brate	2	6	27	0	13%	0.4
Breshad Perriman	2	4	19	0	9%	-1.3
O.J. Howard	1	1	10	0	2%	0.7
Tyler Johnson	1	3	8	0	6%	-0.0
Jaelon Darden	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.8
Giovani Bernard	1	1	3	0	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Devin White	3	5	1
Lavonte David	4	3	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	6	0	0
Jamel Dean	4	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	1	2	1
Antoine Winfield	1	2	1
William Gholston	1	1	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	0	0
Joe Tryon	2	0	0
Tyler Johnson	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -11.5
Closing total: 49.5
NYG moneyline: +423
TB moneyline: -527

Buccaneers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 40 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 68°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: NYG 15 days · TB 8 days
Coaches: Joe Judge vs Bruce Arians