2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -5.5 no coverO 47.5 ✓DomeChargers closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Chargers 41–37. Biggest swing: Q4 2:17, LAC +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:17PIT — LAC LAC ball · 1st & 10PIT 51%

(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:17LAC +29% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:45PIT +22% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton (97-C.Heyward) at LAC 15. 20-C.Sutton to LAC 11 for 4 yards (74-S.Norton). PIT-20-C.Sutton was injured during the play.
Q4 · 3:48PIT +14% win prob(3:48) 68-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (93-J.Schobert, 95-C.Wormley).
Q4 · 3:29LAC +12% win prob(3:29) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Chargers
Offensive plays	65	66
Total yards	300	536 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	8.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.34 (edge)
Success rate	45%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.50 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	8/15	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

30/41, 382 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

15.1 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

28/44, 273 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

0.5 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

9 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

11 att, 50 yds, 2 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

9/13 for 112 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

7/13 for 101 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	14	42	6:31	Turnover on downs
2	LAC	LAC 27	14	85	6:20	Touchdown
3	PIT	PIT 25	13	68	6:33	Turnover on downs
4	LAC	LAC 2	13	98	6:54	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 36	9	64	2:33	Touchdown
6	LAC	LAC 25	9	57	1:07	Turnover on downs
7	PIT	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
8	LAC	LAC 30	8	75	3:10	Touchdown
9	PIT	PIT 25	5	2	1:42	Punt
10	LAC	LAC 26	11	61	6:28	Turnover on downs
11	PIT	PIT 25	11	57	4:30	Turnover on downs
12	LAC	LAC 25	5	7	1:37	Punt
13	PIT	LAC 3	5	-1	0:58	Touchdown
14	LAC	LAC 25	9	69	2:47	Touchdown
15	PIT	PIT 25	11	75	3:59	Touchdown
16	LAC	LAC 25	3	0	0:13	Interception
17	PIT	LAC 11	3	5	0:13	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 25	5	9	0:40	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	LAC 34	4	7	0:19	Turnover on downs
20	LAC	LAC 25	5	75	1:15	Touchdown
21	PIT	PIT 25	5	-19	0:54	Turnover on downs
22	LAC	PIT 3	3	0	1:15	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 98 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	28/44	273	3	0	3	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	12	39	3.3	1	-0.7
Benny Snell	2	7	3.5	0	0.5
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	5	5.0	0	0.0
Kalen Ballage	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4
Chase Claypool	2	1	0.5	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	7	13	101	1	30%	3.5
Chase Claypool	5	9	93	0	20%	3.8
Eric Ebron	3	3	24	1	7%	2.2
Najee Harris	5	6	20	0	14%	0.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	2	12	0	5%	2.8
James Washington	2	3	12	0	7%	-4.1
Pat Freiermuth	4	7	11	1	16%	-3.5
Kalen Ballage	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cameron Sutton	7	3	0.0	1	1
Tre Norwood	6	1	0.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	3	3	1.5	0	0
James Pierre	5	0	0.0	0	0
Chris Wormley	3	1	0.0	0	0
Robert Spillane	2	1	0.0	0	0
Arthur Maulet	3	0	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	1	0.0	0	0
Joe Schobert	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	2	0	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	30/41	382	3	1	2	15.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Herbert	9	90	10.0	0	3.3
Austin Ekeler	11	50	4.5	2	-0.4
Josh Palmer	1	6	6.0	0	0.2
Larry Rountree	2	5	2.5	0	-0.7
Andre Roberts	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Jalen Guyton	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Justin Jackson	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	9	13	112	0	32%	0.4
Mike Williams	5	6	97	1	15%	7.8
Austin Ekeler	6	7	65	2	17%	5.1
Donald Parham	4	5	38	0	12%	2.5
Jared Cook	3	5	28	0	12%	-0.4
Jalen Guyton	1	2	18	0	5%	0.7
Josh Palmer	1	1	17	0	2%	1.2
Tre' McKitty	1	1	7	0	2%	0.7
Justin Jackson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Asante Samuel	5	2	0.0	1
Derwin James	2	4	0.0	1
Michael Davis	5	0	0.0	0
Kyzir White	2	3	0.0	1
Nasir Adderley	3	1	0.0	0
Joey Bosa	2	1	1.0	0
Justin Jones	0	3	0.0	1
Tevaughn Campbell	3	0	0.0	1
Breiden Fehoko	1	2	0.0	0
Chris Harris	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -5.5
Closing total: 47.5
PIT moneyline: +220
LAC moneyline: -251

Chargers closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 78 — over by 30.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: PIT 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Brandon Staley