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Pittsburgh Steelers 37 at Los Angeles Chargers 41. Final.
Chargers -5.5 no coverO 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 11
Los Angeles Chargers 41, Steelers 37 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:17, 1st and 10, on Mike Williams — 28.6 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:17 · 1st and 10
Mike Williams
Chargers
(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chargers closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Chargers 41–37. Biggest swing: Q4 2:17, Chargers +28.6% win probability on one snap.
28.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cameron SuttonSteelersQ4 4:45(4:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton (97-C.Heyward) at LAC 15. 20-C.Sutton to LAC 11 for 4 yards (74-S.Norton). PIT-20-C.Sutton was injured during the play.
22.4pts
Austin EkelerSteelersQ4 3:48(3:48) 68-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (93-J.Schobert, 95-C.Wormley).
14.0pts
What separated them
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.50 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at +0.01 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Steelers185 of 194 plays carry both curves
(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +28.6 for ChargersExpected points +4.98 for ChargersThe model had Steelers 5 points higher than the market did.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:17LAC +29% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:45PIT +22% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton (97-C.Heyward) at LAC 15. 20-C.Sutton to LAC 11 for 4 yards (74-S.Norton). PIT-20-C.Sutton was injured during the play.
4th · 3:48PIT +14% win prob(3:48) 68-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (93-J.Schobert, 95-C.Wormley).
4th · 3:29LAC +12% win prob(3:29) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
4th · 2:52LAC +12% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 47 for 17 yards (55-D.Bush).
4th · 4:28LAC +10% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Williams's 53-yard touchdown catch with 2:17 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:33Chris Boswell·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–0
Chargers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Steelers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.34Chargers: +0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Steelers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.50Chargers: +0.50 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.11Chargers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 65 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Chargers’s 66 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 7, Chargers 7.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, +13.5 pts, is past their previous high of +9.4 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
PIT's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.7% in week 10 against 8.2% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Chargers12.8%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.5 pts, 9.5 points above their season mean of 3.9 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%69 snaps
65Dan MooreT · Every snap100%69 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
51Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%69 snaps
53Kendrick GreenC · Every snap100%69 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time91%63 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Full-time91%63 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation67%46 snaps
71Joe HaegT · Heavy rotation62%43 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Rotational46%32 snaps
60J.C. HassenauerC · Rotational38%26 snaps
81Zach GentryTE · Situational22%15 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational22%15 snaps
29Kalen BallageRB · Situational13%9 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Situational12%8 snaps
44Derek WattFB · Situational3%2 snaps
72Zach BannerT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Joe HadenCBIsaiahh LoudermilkDEBuddy JohnsonILBT.J. WattOLBDwayne HaskinsQBAnthony McFarlandRB
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Mason RudolphQB
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Rashawn SlaterT · Every snap100%76 snaps
72Michael SchofieldG · Every snap100%76 snaps
74Storm NortonT · Every snap100%76 snaps
71Matt FeilerG · Every snap100%76 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%76 snaps
10Justin HerbertQB · Every snap100%76 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time82%62 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation79%60 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation70%53 snaps
15Jalen GuytonWR · Heavy rotation54%41 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation50%38 snaps
89Donald ParhamTE · Rotational42%32 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Rotational30%23 snaps
82Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational25%19 snaps
35Larry RountreeRB · Rotational25%19 snaps
88Tre' McKittyTE · Situational24%18 snaps
68Senio KelemeteG · Situational12%9 snaps
22Justin JacksonRB · Situational7%5 snaps
7Andre RobertsWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Gabe NabersFBMark WebbFSLinval JosephNTEaston StickQBJoshua KelleyRBAlohi GilmanSSTrey PipkinsT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:17 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at LAC 47 · gained 53 · +4.98 EP · +31.2% win probability
183 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 98 yards from the LAC 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
48%
Yards
833
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.0384%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.6580%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2138%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3040%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Steelers3Chargers0
Field goal16 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Chargers 18
Steelers3Chargers6
Steelers3Chargers7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Steelers 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 40
2nd quarter47 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Chargers 2
Steelers3Chargers13
Steelers3Chargers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Steelers 6
Steelers9Chargers14
Steelers10Chargers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Chargers 10
Steelers10Chargers17
Field goal15 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Steelers 7
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Steelers10Chargers23
Steelers10Chargers24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Steelers 17
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 27
Steelers10Chargers27
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Steelers 18
The period ended9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Chargers 24
4th quarter69 plays
Steelers13Chargers27
Field goal3 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 18
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 32
Steelers19Chargers27
Steelers20Chargers27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 3 to the Chargers 1
Steelers20Chargers33
Steelers20Chargers34
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Steelers 5
Steelers26Chargers34
Steelers27Chargers34
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Chargers 5
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Steelers33Chargers34
Steelers34Chargers34
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
Steelers37Chargers34
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Steelers37Chargers40
Steelers37Chargers41
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 47
Turnover on downs6 plays
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
