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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on 49ers143 of 151 plays carry both curves
(7:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to JAX 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Jack).
Swing −8.6 for JaguarsExpected points −2.56 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 30 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:25JAX +9% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to JAX 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Jack).
2nd · 11:33JAX +6% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:11SF +6% win prob(8:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at JAX 47 for -6 yards (54-D.Wilson).
1st · 9:11JAX +6% win prob(9:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 45 for -5 yards (91-D.Smoot). PENALTY on JAX-2-R.Jenkins, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
1st · 0:31JAX +5% win prob(:31) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to SF 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 20 for 1 yard (38-A.Cisco).
1st · 0:20JAX +4% win prob(:20) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at JAX 46 for 34 yards (42-A.Wingard).
2nd · 11:24
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robbie Gould's 20-yard field goal with 1:59 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:59Robbie Gould·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+33–0
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2049ers: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.10Jaguars: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.3849ers: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.08Jaguars: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.0949ers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.14Jaguars: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 64 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 44 at 68%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Jaguars 2.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Jaguars16.0%
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's early-down pass rate, 35.3% against a season mean of 49.4% — and SF swings 14.2 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 4 inactive
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillG · Full-time93%64 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time93%64 snaps
50Alex MackC · Full-time93%64 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Full-time93%64 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time90%62 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time83%57 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time80%55 snaps
76Jaylon MooreT · Heavy rotation65%45 snaps
22Jeffery WilsonRB · Heavy rotation58%40 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation55%38 snaps
66Tom ComptonT · Rotational48%33 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational48%33 snaps
28Trey SermonRB · Rotational35%24 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Situational19%13 snaps
81Trent SherfieldWR · Situational16%11 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational10%7 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Situational7%5 snaps
65Aaron BanksG · Situational7%5 snaps
5Trey LanceQB · Situational7%5 snaps
17Travis BenjaminWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 4
Maurice HurstDTElijah MitchellRBJamycal HastyRBColton McKivitzT
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%46 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%46 snaps
78Ben BartchT · Every snap100%46 snaps
69Tyler ShatleyG · Every snap100%46 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%46 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time91%42 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Full-time85%39 snaps
18Laquon TreadwellWR · Heavy rotation72%33 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Heavy rotation65%30 snaps
10Laviska ShenaultWR · Heavy rotation63%29 snaps
25James RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation63%29 snaps
24Carlos HydeRB · Rotational30%14 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational28%13 snaps
7Tavon AustinWR · Rotational26%12 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational26%12 snaps
39Jamal AgnewWR · Situational22%10 snaps
72Walker LittleT · Situational15%7 snaps
13John BrownWR · Situational9%4 snaps
90Malcom BrownDT · Situational2%1 snap
76Will RichardsonT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Tre HerndonCBDakota AllenOLBJordan SmithOLBDevine OzigboRBJacob HollisterTE
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Samuel left+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:33) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:33 · 49ers · 2nd & 11 at JAX 25 · gained 25 · +3.69 EP · +11.4% win probability
141 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 151 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 87 yards from the SF 11 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
151 of 151 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
151
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
533
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0372%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.2245%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.4032%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.7238%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
49ers3Jaguars0
Field goal24 plays, from the 49ers 11 to the Jaguars 2
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 30
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
49ers9Jaguars0
49ers10Jaguars0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Jaguars 24
Fumble lost2 plays
49ers16Jaguars0
49ers17Jaguars0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 6
49ers17Jaguars3
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the 49ers 12
49ers20Jaguars3
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Jaguars 30
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays
49ers26Jaguars3
49ers27Jaguars3
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Jaguars 1
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 46
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 26
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Jaguars 44
4th quarter38 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the 49ers 33
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 21
49ers30Jaguars3
Field goal5 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Jaguars 27
49ers30Jaguars9
49ers30Jaguars10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the 49ers 1
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -6.5
Closing total
45
49ers moneyline
-281
Jaguars moneyline
+243
49ers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 45; the game landed 40 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
49ers 6 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Urban Meyer
SF +4% win prob
(11:24) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 10-L.Shenault to JAX 31 for 6 yards (26-J.Norman; 1-J.Ward). FUMBLES (26-J.Norman), RECOVERED by SF-54-F.Warner at JAX 35.
1st · 1:55SF +3% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson left end to JAX 24 for -1 yards (56-S.Ebukam).
