2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

SF -6.5 ✓U 45 ✓17 mph wind49ers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 20.

San Francisco 49ers 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:25, JAX +9% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:25SF — JAX SF ball · 3rd & 12SF 72%

(7:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to JAX 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Jack).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:25JAX +9% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to JAX 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Jack).
Q2 · 11:33JAX +6% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:11SF +6% win prob(8:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at JAX 47 for -6 yards (54-D.Wilson).
Q1 · 9:11JAX +6% win prob(9:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 45 for -5 yards (91-D.Smoot). PENALTY on JAX-2-R.Jenkins, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Jaguars
Offensive plays	64	44
Total yards	336 (edge)	200
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	48% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	39%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

16/22, 176 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.0 expected points added · +16.3% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

16/25, 158 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.8 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

8 att, 79 yds, 1 TD

9.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

19 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

7/7 for 85 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Marvin JonesWR

4/6 for 52 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 11	21	76	13:05	Turnover on downs
2	JAX	JAX 25	5	5	1:35	Punt
3	SF	SF 20	8	80	3:56	Touchdown
4	JAX	JAX 25	2	6	0:08	Fumble
5	SF	JAX 35	8	14	2:51	Touchdown
6	JAX	JAX 21	13	72	6:32	Turnover on downs
7	SF	SF 25	8	45	1:53	Turnover on downs
8	JAX	JAX 25	5	0	0:26	Punt
9	SF	SF 23	12	77	5:45	Touchdown
10	JAX	JAX 23	8	17	3:45	Punt
11	SF	SF 9	5	17	2:22	Punt
12	JAX	JAX 29	13	37	6:43	Punt
13	SF	SF 15	4	-2	2:26	Punt
14	SF	JAX 44	5	17	3:00	Turnover on downs
15	JAX	JAX 25	10	63	2:29	Touchdown
16	SF	SF 25	6	12	3:04	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	16/22	176	2	0	2	10.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Deebo Samuel	8	79	9.9	1	9.1
Jeffery Wilson	19	50	2.6	0	-4.7
Trey Sermon	10	32	3.2	0	-1.6
Jimmy Garoppolo	2	6	3.0	0	0.4
Trey Lance	3	4	1.3	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	7	7	85	1	35%	8.5
George Kittle	4	4	34	1	20%	5.2
Trey Sermon	1	1	23	0	5%	1.3
Deebo Samuel	1	2	15	0	10%	0.1
Jeffery Wilson	1	2	8	0	10%	0.1
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	7	0	10%	-0.4
Jauan Jennings	1	1	4	0	5%	0.4
Trent Williams	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	4	3	0.0	0
Jimmie Ward	2	3	0.0	0
Ambry Thomas	4	0	0.0	0
K'Waun Williams	2	2	0.0	1
Marcell Harris	1	2	0.0	0
Nick Bosa	3	0	2.0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	2	1	0.0	0
Kentavius Street	1	1	0.0	0
Arden Key	1	1	1.0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	1	1	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	16/25	158	0	0	3	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	12	29	2.4	1	-1.9
Trevor Lawrence	3	23	7.7	0	1.2
Jamal Agnew	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	4	6	52	25%	2.3
Laviska Shenault Jr.	5	5	50	21%	-1.2
Jamal Agnew	3	3	18	13%	3.2
Tavon Austin	1	2	18	8%	0.4
Laquon Treadwell	1	3	11	13%	-0.5
James Robinson	2	3	9	13%	-0.8
Carlos Hyde	0	1	0	4%	-0.9
John Brown	0	1	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Myles Jack	4	7	0.0
Josh Hines-Allen	3	6	0.0
Damien Wilson	4	4	1.0
Andrew Wingard	4	3	0.0
Rudy Ford	2	3	0.0
Roy Robertson-Harris	2	2	1.0
K'Lavon Chaisson	3	1	0.0
Daniel Thomas	2	2	0.0
Andre Cisco	3	0	0.0
Tyson Campbell	3	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -6.5
Closing total: 45
SF moneyline: -281
JAX moneyline: +243

49ers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 45; the game landed 40 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 68°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: SF 6 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Urban Meyer

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.