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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 11
It turned at Q1 7:25, 3rd and 12, on Brandon Aiyuk — 8.6 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:25, 49ers +8.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:25 · 3rd and 12
Brandon Aiyuk
49ers
(7:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to JAX 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Jack).
8.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.10 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.14 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(7:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-B.Aiyuk to JAX 34 for 13 yards (44-M.Jack).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Robbie Gould's 20-yard field goal with 1:59 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Robbie Gould20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+33–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryJaguars
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 64 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 44 at 68%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Jaguars 2.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-13.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 64 snaps
Jaguars-7.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 44 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 87%
Tendencies room →49ers35.3%inside their normal wobble · −14.1 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 51 early downs
Jaguars59.4%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 59.6%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 32 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 110%
Fourth Down room →49ers25.0%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±26.0 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →49ers20.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Jaguars16.0%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's early-down pass rate, 35.3% against a season mean of 49.4% — and SF swings 14.2 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 4 inactive
Inactive · 4
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
16/22, 176 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.0 expected points added · +16.3% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
16/25, 158 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.8 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brandon Aiyuk banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.5 | +8.2 | 93% | 92% | 35% | 35% | 7/7, 85 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.4 | +6.7 | 80% | 88% | 10% | 21% | 8 car, 79 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 15 yd |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 15.6 | −4.5 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 176 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 6 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 13.4 | +4.0 | 83% | 92% | 20% | 16% | 4/4, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| James RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.8 | −1.4 | 63% | 47% | 13% | 1% | 12 car, 29 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 9 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.2 | −0.2 | 91% | 90% | 25% | 43% | 4/6, 52 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 8.6 | −0.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 158 yd · 3 car, 23 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | +1.0 | 63% | 70% | 21% | 3% | 5/5, 50 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Committee Back | 6.8 | −12.3 | 58% | 56% | 10% | 7% | 19 car, 50 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Trey SermonRB | 6.5 | −0.2 | 35% | 28% | 5% | 6% | 10 car, 32 yd · 1/1, 23 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +0.5 | 22% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 1 car, 2 yd · 3/3, 18 yd |
| Tavon AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.5 | 26% | 30% | 8% | 12% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −2.0 | 72% | 57% | 13% | 19% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 1.7 | −3.2 | 55% | 52% | 10% | 7% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.7 | 48% | 56% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Trey LanceQB | 0.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Carlos HydeRB | 0.0 | −1.0 | 30% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 65% | 77% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| John BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trenton CannonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 4% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:33) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:33 · 49ers · 2nd & 11 at JAX 25 · gained 25 · +3.69 EP · +11.4% win probability
141 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 151 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 87 yards from the SF 11 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers3
Jaguars049ers9Jaguars049ers10Jaguars049ers16Jaguars049ers17Jaguars049ers17Jaguars349ers20Jaguars349ers26Jaguars349ers27Jaguars349ers30Jaguars349ers30Jaguars949ers30Jaguars10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/22 | 176 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +10.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 8 | 79 | 9.9 | 1 | +9.1 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 19 | 50 | 2.6 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Trey Sermon |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 7 | 7 | 85 | 1 | 35% | +8.5 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ambry Thomas |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 16/25 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_11_SF_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 45; the game landed 40 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| 10 |
| 32 |
| 3.2 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Trey Lance | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +5.2 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Trent Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.3 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcell Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 1 | −1.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 25% | +2.3 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 21% | −1.2 |
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 13% | +3.2 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8% | +0.4 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −0.5 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 13% | −0.8 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| John Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Jack | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Wilson | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Cisco | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
