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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 11
It turned at Q4 7:23, 4th and 3, on John Bates — 15.2 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 27–21. Biggest swing: Q4 7:23, Commanders +15.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:23 · 4th and 3
John Bates
Commanders
(7:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 87-J.Bates to CAR 37 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson) [53-B.Burns].
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 9 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.58 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at +0.13 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(7:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 87-J.Bates to CAR 37 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson) [53-B.Burns].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Joey Slye's 36-yard field goal with 4:18 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Joey Slye36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.CheesemanLead never changed again+324–218 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryPanthers
Commanders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 63 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Panthers’s 48 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 6, Panthers 3.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
WAS's early-down pass rate, 29.2%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
WAS's pass rate over expected, −17.8 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-17.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −14.0 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.99× that swing) · 63 snaps
Panthers-6.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their -1.3 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Commanders29.2%off script — ran early · −25.1 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−2.14× that swing) · 48 early downs
Panthers55.6%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Commanders40.0%right on their number · +4.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±25.4 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers42.9%right on their number · +9.4 vs their 33.4%, and they swing ±25.6 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Commanders13.8%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Panthers23.1%inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
WAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 29.2%, 25.1 points below their season mean of 54.3% and 2.1 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
16/22, 206 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
13.5 expected points added · +23.2% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
21/27, 189 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.6 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
7/8 for 60 yds, 1 TD
30% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Cam Newton banked 12.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam NewtonQB · Starter QB | 26.2 | +12.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/27, 189 yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 24.9 | +7.8 | 90% | 90% | 30% | 26% | 10 car, 59 yd · 7/8, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | +8.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/22, 206 yd, 3 TD · 6 car, 29 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.3 | +7.9 | 93% | 88% | 35% | 63% | 5/7, 103 yd, 1 TD |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.0 | +3.7 | 94% | 97% | 26% | 35% | 5/7, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +2.2 | 75% | 65% | 15% | 13% | 1 car, -3 yd · 2/3, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +4.4 | 16% | 27% | 10% | 7% | 2/2, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | +0.1 | 92% | 93% | 22% | 13% | 5/6, 30 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 7.5 | −3.8 | 49% | 27% | 0% | — | 19 car, 95 yd |
| J.D. McKissicRB · Receiving Back | 6.0 | −0.2 | 46% | 54% | 10% | 1% | 7 car, 46 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +2.0 | 47% | 38% | 7% | 19% | 2/2, 35 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +1.4 | 99% | 96% | 15% | 4% | 3/3, 23 yd |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +1.9 | 45% | 69% | 10% | 9% | 2/2, 30 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 2.3 | −0.9 | 19% | 23% | 0% | — | 7 car, 23 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.9 | 63% | 62% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Brandon ZylstraWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.9 | 47% | 45% | 7% | 1% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 18% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.6 | +0.1 | 16% | 10% | 0% | — | 1 car, 6 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 27% | 31% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alex EricksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:50 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at WAS 27 · gained 27 · +2.92 EP · +24.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 91 yards from the CAR 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Panthers6Commanders0Panthers7Commanders6Panthers7Commanders7Panthers7Commanders7Panthers13Commanders7Panthers14Commanders13Panthers14Commanders14Panthers14Commanders20Panthers14Commanders21Panthers14Commanders21Panthers20Commanders21Panthers21Commanders24Panthers21Commanders27Panthers21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 16/22 | 206 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +13.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 19 | 95 | 5.0 | 0 | −3.9 |
| J.D. McKissic | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 7 | 103 | 1 | 35% | +9.8 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Holcomb | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kamren Curl | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Smith-Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/27 | 189 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_11_WAS_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 48 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 29 |
| 4.8 |
| 0 |
| +2.8 |
| Jaret Patterson | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.3 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| 10% |
| +0.8 |
| John Bates | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 15% | +2.5 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 15% | +5.0 |
| Cam Sims | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 10% | +3.8 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −0.7 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Landon Collins | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daron Payne | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Toohill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 | +5.4 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 | −1.1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 60 | 1 | 30% | −0.1 |
| D.J. Moore | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 26% | +2.9 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7% | +2.8 |
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 22% | −0.1 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Terrace Marshall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Bouye | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Carter | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Morgan Fox | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Haynes | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Hartsfield | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
