2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -3.5 upsetO 43 ✓Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 27–21. Biggest swing: Q4 7:23, CAR +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:23WAS — CAR WAS ball · 4th & 3CAR 51%

(7:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 87-J.Bates to CAR 37 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson) [53-B.Burns].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:23CAR +15% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 87-J.Bates to CAR 37 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson) [53-B.Burns].
Q3 · 9:26CAR +13% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 1-D.Carter for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:10WAS +13% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson up the middle to CAR 15 for -2 yards (91-M.Fox). FUMBLES (91-M.Fox), RECOVERED by CAR-49-F.Luvu at CAR 10. 49-F.Luvu to CAR 10 for no gain (75-B.Scherff).
Q4 · 10:50CAR +13% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Panthers
Offensive plays	63	48
Total yards	371 (edge)	298
Yards per play	5.9	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	0.15
Success rate	48%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	41%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.58 (edge)	0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs 0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

16/22, 206 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.5 expected points added · +23.2% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

21/27, 189 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.6 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

19 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

10 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

5/7 for 103 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

7/8 for 60 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	11	60	5:28	Touchdown
2	WAS	WAS 25	5	7	1:39	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 22	4	9	2:01	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 23	5	49	2:49	Fumble
5	CAR	CAR 10	4	11	1:38	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 34	8	66	2:56	Touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 25	7	20	2:48	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 23	4	-2	2:16	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 30	6	65	2:33	Touchdown
10	WAS	WAS 29	14	75	5:43	Touchdown
11	CAR	CAR 25	2	0	0:09	End of half
12	WAS	WAS 34	12	66	5:39	Touchdown
13	CAR	CAR 25	8	15	3:16	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 20	9	52	6:12	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 9	8	76	4:09	Touchdown
16	WAS	WAS 25	13	40	6:31	Turnover on downs
17	CAR	CAR 25	5	19	1:20	Turnover on downs
18	WAS	CAR 34	5	18	1:03	Turnover on downs
19	CAR	CAR 25	7	23	0:45	Turnover on downs
20	WAS	CAR 48	2	0	1:05	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 76 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	16/22	206	3	0	3	13.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Antonio Gibson	19	95	5.0	-3.9
J.D. McKissic	7	46	6.6	2.3
Taylor Heinicke	6	29	4.8	2.8
Jaret Patterson	7	23	3.3	-2.3
DeAndre Carter	1	-3	-3.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	5	7	103	1	35%	9.8
Adam Humphries	2	2	30	0	10%	0.8
John Bates	3	3	23	0	15%	2.5
DeAndre Carter	2	3	22	1	15%	5.0
Cam Sims	2	2	19	1	10%	3.8
Dax Milne	1	1	5	0	5%	-0.1
J.D. McKissic	1	2	4	0	10%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cole Holcomb	3	7	0.0	1
Kamren Curl	6	1	0.0	0
James Smith-Williams	1	5	0.5	0
Landon Collins	1	4	0.0	0
William Jackson	3	1	0.0	1
Daron Payne	0	4	0.5	0
Jonathan Allen	2	1	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	2	1	0.0	0
Casey Toohill	1	1	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	2	0	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	21/27	189	2	0	1	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	10	59	5.9	0	5.4
Cam Newton	10	46	4.6	1	-1.1
Ameer Abdullah	1	6	6.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	7	8	60	1	30%	-0.1
D.J. Moore	5	7	50	1	26%	2.9
Tommy Tremble	2	2	35	0	7%	2.8
Robbie Chosen	5	6	30	0	22%	-0.1
Ian Thomas	1	1	7	0	4%	0.2
Brandon Zylstra	1	2	7	0	7%	-0.5
Terrace Marshall	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	8	4	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	7	2	0.0	1
A.J. Bouye	3	2	0.0	0
Haason Reddick	4	1	1.0	0
Jermaine Carter	2	3	0.0	0
Morgan Fox	4	0	0.0	0
Stephon Gilmore	3	0	0.0	0
Marquis Haynes	1	1	1.0	0
Brian Burns	1	1	1.0	0
Myles Hartsfield	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -3.5
Closing total: 43
WAS moneyline: +154
CAR moneyline: -172

Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 48 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: WAS 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Matt Rhule