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2021 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 21, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington27
BY 6final margin
PanthersCarolina21
Washington Commanders 27 at Carolina Panthers 21. Final.
Panthers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 11
Washington Commanders 27, Panthers 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:23, 4th and 3, on John Bates — 15.2 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:23 · 4th and 3
John Bates
Commanders
(7:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 87-J.Bates to CAR 37 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson) [53-B.Burns].
O 43 ✓
Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 27–21. Biggest swing: Q4 7:23, Commanders +15.2% win probability on one snap.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Antonio GibsonPanthersQ1 3:10(3:10) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson up the middle to CAR 15 for -2 yards (91-M.Fox). FUMBLES (91-M.Fox), RECOVERED by CAR-49-F.Luvu at CAR 10. 49-F.Luvu to CAR 10 for no gain (75-B.Scherff).
12.6pts
DeAndre CarterCommandersQ3 9:26(9:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 1-D.Carter for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 9 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.58 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at +0.13 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Commanders152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(7:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 87-J.Bates to CAR 37 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson) [53-B.Burns].
Swing −15.2 for PanthersExpected points −2.96 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 5 points higher than the market did.play 131
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:23CAR +15% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 87-J.Bates to CAR 37 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson) [53-B.Burns].
3rd · 9:26CAR +13% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 1-D.Carter for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:10WAS +13% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson up the middle to CAR 15 for -2 yards (91-M.Fox). FUMBLES (91-M.Fox), RECOVERED by CAR-49-F.Luvu at CAR 10. 49-F.Luvu to CAR 10 for no gain (75-B.Scherff).
4th · 10:50CAR +13% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:11WAS +10% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 48 for -3 yards (sack split by 94-D.Payne and 96-J.Smith-Williams).
2nd · 13:33CAR +10% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 11-C.Sims for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joey Slye's 36-yard field goal with 4:18 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th4:18Joey Slye·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.CheesemanLead never changed again+324–21
4th1:54Joey Slye·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+327–21
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryPanthers
Commanders5–4Panthers
371Total yards298
5.9Yards per play6.2
48%Success rate48%
46%Third-down rate22%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays4
22First downs15
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Commanders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Commanders: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.15Panthers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.58Commanders: +0.58 expected points added per play
+0.13Panthers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Commanders: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.18Panthers: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 63 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Panthers’s 48 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 6, Panthers 3.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's early-down pass rate, 29.2%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 48.0% in week 10.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
WAS's pass rate over expected, −17.8 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −11.3 pts in week 1.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 10.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Panthers23.1%
inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 29.2%, 25.1 points below their season mean of 54.3% and 2.1 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass+24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:50 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at WAS 27 · gained 27 · +2.92 EP · +24.0% win probability
150 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 91 yards from the CAR 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
45%
Yards
666
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.3853%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0763%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0815%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.2425%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4929%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0843%
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Commanders0Panthers6
Commanders0Panthers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Commanders 10
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 32
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 31
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Panthers 13
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 18
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 38
2nd quarter44 plays
Commanders6Panthers7
Commanders7Panthers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 6
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Commanders 25
Commanders7Panthers13
Commanders7Panthers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Commanders 24
Commanders13Panthers14
Commanders14Panthers14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Panthers 12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Commanders20Panthers14
Commanders21Panthers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Panthers 4
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 45
The period ended12 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Panthers 33
4th quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Commanders21Panthers20
Commanders21Panthers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Commanders 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.1 seconds
Commanders24Panthers21
Field goal14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Panthers 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
Commanders27Panthers21
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Panthers 11
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Commanders 49
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Panthers -3.5
Closing total
43
Commanders moneyline
+154
Panthers moneyline
-172
Panthers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 48 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Matt Rhule
2nd · 0:14
CAR +10% win prob
(:14) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-21-J.Chinn, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 1:07CAR +10% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 1-D.Carter to CAR 25 for 18 yards (26-D.Jackson).
